Writing an NFL preview for Week 18 on a Wednesday morning — as I’m doing right now — is kind of like planning for a human colony on Mars, but doing so in 1492.
Sure, you can imagine what the situation may look like, and you can even draw up a few ideas, but good golly, it’s a long way off considering a lot of news is still waiting to drop.
And even if the news drops … you still don’t know what’s going to be what.
Sure, we know a few teams are playing for No. 1 seeds and playoffs, and a few more are maybe kinda-sorta playing for seeding, but everyone else? Insert shrugging shoulders emoji.
Having said all that … I love Week 18. I love the insanity. And truthfully, I love the edges that will undoubtedly pop up as the week plays out.
It’s always smart to be careful out there, but that goes double for Week 18. A lot of things are going to happen between now and then. Heck, we may even invent a rocket ship.
On to Week 17!
The +1000 or more parlay of the week
All right, missed last week, still doesn’t matter as we hit a +2400-and-change whopper earlier in the year, guaranteeing a profit in this silly little endeavor.
But let’s try and finish the regular season on a high note, and as such, at FanDuel at a very attractive +2030, give me the Panthers outright at +124 in Tampa, over 44.5 in the Saints-Falcons game, under 36.5 in the Raiders-Chiefs game, and the Giants outright over the Cowboys at +154.
Rationale: Neither the Panthers or Bucs are very good, but I think the Panthers eke this one out. Young and hungry vs. old and tired, the way I see it. As for the Giants-Cowboys? I think Dallas ends up playing their starters for a quarter, if that, and the Giants — as evidenced by their 34-10 thrashing of the Raiders last week — are playing hard. Saints-Falcons flies over, as both teams are still clearly having fun out there and the Saints seem to be giving Tyler Shough every opportunity to take home Offensive Rookie of the Year, and if the Bucs win Saturday, the Falcons can play spoiler. Lastly, under 36.5 in Raiders-Chiefs? All day long. I don’t think these two teams even get to 20 points.
Obvious three-team teaser that won’t hit
Up to 9-8 on these bets — for those keeping score at home, that’s a 27% ROI at +140, not too shabby — and we look to finish strong at Caesars. Give me the Saints +9 in Atlanta, the Vikings getting a half-point at home against the Packers, and the Bengals giving 1.5 points at home against Cleveland. FWIW, I also love the Panthers +9 and under 42.5 in the Raiders-Chiefs, if you feel like getting frisky.
It’s a trap!
Down to 9-9, thought the Panthers would cover against the Seahawks last week. So naturally, this week, I’m going right back to the Panthers. I really don’t think they should be 3-point road dogs in Tampa. Tampa is broken. Carolina is damaged. That’s the #analysis.
Did I win the DraftKings Milly Maker?
DraftKings DFS plays of the week
I advocated for Adam Thielen last week. I am ashamed. This week … good gosh. I don’t know. I think I’m loading up on the Saints and Falcons. That game could get crazy.
Mortal-lock, can’t lose, 900 number, send your money now play of the week
Up to 8-9, and looking to get back to .500 with … the Panthers +3. What could go wrong?
