With FanDuel, DraftKings, and Fanatics Betting & Gaming all getting involved in prediction markets, BetMGM is comfortably the largest sportsbook operator to have shied away. Given it’s half-owned by MGM Resorts, whose casino licenses in Nevada are its most important asset, it doesn’t look like there’s any sign of BetMGM getting involved in the space in the foreseeable future.
But the rise of prediction markets has clearly had an impact on the landscape, even for sportsbooks that are steering clear. And so maybe it’s no surprise that BetMGM — at least on the surface — is looking to borrow a few things that bettors might have seen on Kalshi or Polymarket.
Ahead of the football season, the sportsbook is unveiling a new suite of features on its app that make betting look a little bit more like trading.
Introducing probabilities
Most noticeably, the new version of the app allows bettors to see odds as percentages, mimicking the styles of Kalshi and Polymarket. When customers open the new version of the app, they will have the option to set “probability odds” as their default odds option.
BetMGM Product Management Leader Brittany Dunbar told InGame that the feature came out of conversations with BetMGM users who had also used prediction markets.
“We’ve talked to our players a lot this past year, around prediction markets for those who dabble in prediction markets,” Dunbar said. “What do they like? What do they not like? So we’re trying to glean some of those learnings and pull through what makes sense into our experience. So probability odds is one of those new features that we’ll be introducing.”
It’s the most glaring example of the new predictions-influenced design, but it’s not the only one. BetMGM also now displays graphs showing how the cash-out value of a bet has changed over time, resembling the charts that show up on prediction markets’ websites and apps.
“This is one of the things that we really like that the prediction market apps do today,” Dunbar says. “They have a lot of nice visualizations where you see how value has changed for the bet that you placed.”
That’s part of a wider improvement of cash-out features, including a carousel to track active bets.
“I think one of the things that we’ve heard a lot from our players is that they love cash out,” Dunbar says.
Dunbar said BetMGM’s trading team worked on reducing in-game pauses. That has long been a target for sportsbooks, but it also brings the betting experience closer to that of an exchange, where trading usually continues even during high-leverage plays.
Behind the scenes, she said, BetMGM incorporated more automation into its trading so that bets could remain available.
All in all, it makes for a sportsbook product that looks designed to appeal to those who like to feel, at least to some degree, like they’re trading sports.
Not just copying?
Dunbar is happy to acknowledge that BetMGM has borrowed a few features that might be found on prediction markets, but she says the suite of product changes aren’t necessarily about matching anything prediction markets do.
“I don’t know that it’s discreetly saying, ‘Hey, we want to match prediction markets one-for-one with their features and user experience.’ Prediction markets are here and there are things that our players are saying that they like and they do well.”
Instead, the rise of the new vertical was more of a catalyst to think about how the product could be presented.
“I think the opportunity for us was to really understand what the delta was between our customer expectations and like where we have gaps in our product,” Dunbar said. “At the end of the day we’re not going to do everything that a FanDuel or DraftKings does, or what a Kalshi or a Polymarket does. We’re trying to be strategic to really lean into what we think we can do well and the things that are going to provide value for our products.”
There are signs of influence from other companies, further afield, too. Dunbar cites Netflix, Spotify, and Instagram as companies that BetMGM looked to in adding a “liquid glass” look to its bet bar and navigation menus.
There are other features that are far from the prediction world too. Exchanges struggle to match sportsbooks in promotions, so bonuses may be one way to offer sportsbook customers an experience they can’t get at a prediction market. The rewards system has been redesigned to show available promos more clearly.
“We think we have one of the better rewards ecosystems within the competitive set, so we’re just continuing to really refine the experience for players, so they know what rewards they have, what promotions they have access to and kind of continuing to embed that contextually within the product journey.”
Are customers peeling away to predictions?
Dunbar added that while some BetMGM customers had tried prediction markets and appreciated certain features, the operator was not seeing customers switching their main betting venue over from BetMGM to a prediction market in any serious numbers.
“I think we found a lot of our players have dabbled, but it’s kind of a sliding scale of, ‘I was interested, so I went over there to see what was going on, but it’s really not for me,’ to, ‘Maybe I’ll, I’ll bet over there sometimes because there’s an interesting promotion,’ to those people who are really avid.
“So we have some percentage of our base who tried and they’ve let us know what they like and what they don’t like, but it’s not the entirety of our base. It’s sub-segment, and then it’s a sliding scale of novice to dabbling to betting over there consistently.”
So while a BetMGM prediction market probably isn’t coming any time soon, the sportsbook is still moving towards a slightly more predictions-like experience.
