On Polymarket US and DraftKings’ DKeX — the two biggest non-Kalshi venues for parlays — parlay taker losses have been at least as steep as on Kalshi, with takers on DKeX losing the highest percentage of their stakes, at more than 25%, an InGame analysis reveals.
On all three platforms, mobile or web users can only take the taker side on most parlays, meaning that users on this side tend to be more similar to recreational bettors. Market making on parlays is done via a request-for-quote process, which is only available via the exchange’s API. As a result, parlay market makers tend to be professional bettors or institutional traders.
Polymarket US and DKeX launched parlays shortly before football season began, and have already seen billions in volume in around eight weeks of trading. Parlay taker stakes on both exchanges are in the hundreds of millions, and taker losses exceed $50 million on both platforms.
Kalshi still dominates parlay market
Kalshi dominates the U.S. regulated prediction market space in terms of parlay volume and taker stakes. It set new records again this weekend with more than $8 billion in volume across Saturday and Sunday. More than $6 billion of that came from parlays.
Yes-side taker stakes, a closer equivalent to sportsbook handle for parlays, came to $81.6 million Saturday and $91.2 million Sunday. Since the start of September, Kalshi’s yes-side parlay takers have lost $340 million after fees, or about 14.4%, with total yes-side parlay taker losses exceeding $870 million since the product launched. Kalshi has made $336 million in fees on parlays since they launched in September 2025.
Besdies Kalshi, Polymarket US, and DKeX, most other exchanges publish parlay settlement data in ways that mean taker performance cannot be directly calculated.
Early success for Polymarket US takers fades
Unlike Kalshi, Polymarket’s parlays haven’t grown in stake terms as the football season has gone on. Its biggest day for parlays was Sept. 20, which was also the biggest day for taker losses. Users staked $16.9 million that day and lost $5.9 million after fees.
Taker stakes have approached those same highs on each of the following weekends, routinely topping $15 million, but never quite reached the same level.
When Polymarket US first launched parlays Aug. 11, its takers had some early success. On Aug. 21, only the third day in which parlay taker stakes topped $1 million, takers won big, making a profit of $9.4 million after fees on stakes of $4.4 million – more than tripling their stakes. Wins on this day were mostly concentrated within a two-hour window between 10 a.m. and 12 p.m. ET, when it appears that parlay market makers may have mispriced some of their quotes.
This success could not be sustained, but it was enough to ensure that parlay takers were lifetime profitable up until Sept. 12. Since then, though, losses have stacked up, with cumulative losses hitting $69.6 million to date, a 15.4% loss on stakes. Before fees, parlay losses are $419 million. Without Aug. 21, Polymarket US parlay takers would have lost 17.7% of stakes.
Steepest losses are on DKeX
Parlay taker losses on DraftKings’ DKeX have been noticeably steeper so far, though. The product launched on DKeX soon after Polymarket U.S., with the first recorded trades coming on Aug. 26. Volume then ramped up with the start of the NFL season, as DraftKings Predictions appeared to funnel more of its parlay trades through to its in-house exchange, instead of Crypto.com.
Parlay volume toped $200 million on both Saturday and Sunday, with a total of $2.7 billion in volume since they launched.
Taker-side stakes are lower, but routinely top $10 million for Saturdays and Sundays. Total taker stakes since launch are $239.4 million.
Takers have lost $60.8 million, or 25.8% of their stakes after fees. DKeX’s parlay taker return before fees is still a loss of 19.5%, compared to less than 10% for Kalshi and Polymarket U.S.
On DKeX, like Kalshi, parlay prices get detached from probabilities at the longest odds. DkeX trades currently have a price floor of 0.1 cents, meaning that they cannot be at odds longer than 1,000/1, yet users place parlays with as many as 20 legs, where the real probability is often much less likely than one in a thousand.
Parlays at the longest odds and with the most legs tend to lose money for their takers much more quickly than smaller parlays.
DraftKings making money market making?
The identities of the market makers making big profits on DKeX parlays are not known, but it is likely that DraftKings itself is among them. The company has been open about the fact that it engages in market making, with CEO Jaosn Robins saying the company was market making on three exchanges in August. At that time, volume on DKeX was still minimal.
“As DKeX grows, it will create more opportunities for our market maker, while deeper and more diverse liquidity will make our own offering more attractive to customers,” Robins wrote in a letter to shareholders at the time.
