Back in January, I wrote what is now a quaint little column on the dangers of playing around in the information markets on Kalshi, Polymarket, and any other prediction market site.
I’m going to quote myself here (because I have a big ego, some say the biggest, very good people say it’s the biggest they’ve ever seen, much like someone else I’m going to mention in a moment, stand by): “Don’t bet on markets where someone else might already know the outcome. Not at 50 cents. Not at 40. Not at 30. Because if you can’t spot the sucker, you already know who it is.”
My theory was pretty simple: Someone, somewhere, somehow knows … if the president of Venezuela is going to be snatched. Or what Chris Hayes is going to say on late-night TV. Or how long MrBeast’s next video is going to be. Or very literally anything that someone might know the answer to.
Want to bet buy a contract on the Yankees tonight? You’re safe. Want to bet buy a contract on what President Donald Trump is going to say? You are not safe, because someone, somewhere, somehow knows.
Anyway, I said this was a “quaint” column, and the reason I say that is because President Trump is about to turn information markets — be they on Kalshi or Wall Street and everywhere in between — into a pretty, pretty, pretty good grift.
Before I go on, before the angry emails come in, I’ll say I am not a Trump fan, so I get it if you are and think the following is a big nothingburger, but come on: This ain’t a nothingburger. This is a Royale with Cheese. (I’m quoting pop culture repeatedly in an effort to not smash my face against the keyboard.)
The whole Truth
So here’s the deal. Trump Media & Technology Group, the outfit that owns Truth Social and is roughly 41% owned by a trust that holds Trump’s money and is run by his kids, just rolled out something called the “Truth API.” Sounds boring. It is not boring.
What it does is sell Wall Street the fastest possible access to Truth Social posts from the 10 most influential accounts on the platform. And whose accounts are those? Well, Trump’s, for starters. Also Don Jr., Eric, the usual suspects.
The price? Reports peg it at up to $100,000 a month, or a bargain $60,000 a month if you lock in for three years. The launch is set for Aug. 1, and the company says it already has customers lined up. It won’t say who.
Now, why would a hedge fund pay six figures a month for this? Because Trump posts things that move markets. Remember April 9, 2025? Trump posts that he’s pausing tariffs for 90 days, and the market rockets. If you saw that post a few milliseconds before the other guy, you made a fortune. That is the entire pitch here. Speed. Milliseconds turning into millions of dollars.
So the president of the United States is now, functionally, selling early access to information that he himself controls and that he himself moves markets with.
Cool?
Cool.
Winners and losers
What will happen, I suspect, is that anyone who plays in this sandbox will buy access. You have to, because your competitors will. So in the end, I’m guessing, X (or, more likely, XX,XXX) people and companies will pony up for the speedier feed, which will, in effect … put everyone right back in the same position. The only losers — we hate losers, we hate the losers, don’t we hate the losers? — in this game will be the hedge funds and money managers and day traders and banks who don’t have the feed.
And don’t think this is a Wall Street-only problem. That same post that moves the S&P moves the Kalshi contract on whether Trump’s going to do the thing he just posted he’s going to do. The feed that’s worth $100,000 a month to a hedge fund is worth exactly as much to whoever’s trading the prediction market on the other screen. Same milliseconds, same suckers.
As for us, the little guy trying to time a trade on oil prices or the war in Iran or — once again, for those in the back — literally anything where someone, somewhere, somehow has the drop in advance?
Yeah, well, we will continue to be screwed.
Information has a price, and we don’t have the cash.
And so this whole thing is pretty gross, but something-something capitalism and I’m sure it’s fine insert dog drinking coffee while room burns gif.
Or not. Who knows what the future holds.
Well, for $100,000, you can know.
