The NBA Finals are over.
The Stanley Cup Finals are over.
The College World Series is over.
While just about everyone calls this time of the year July, sports bettors refer to it in a different way.
It’s the down period — or dog days — of the sports betting calendar.
There is only one golf major remaining (Open Championship), and football is weeks away.
Let’s take a look at how those who are active in the sports betting community deal with the July lull (besides passing the time counting down the days to the football season).
Summertime blues
Referring to July as the worst time of the sport betting calendar isn’t an overreaction based on withdrawal since the excitement pulsing throughout the NBA and NHL Finals has come to an end. Jill R. Dorson wrote about it back in 2019 when legalized sports betting was first gaining traction.
She wrote on SportsHandle: “The quietest month of the year is July. In fact, Superbook Executive Vice President Jay Kornegay said the week of MLB’s All-Star Game is the slowest week of the year.”
According to Kevin Hennessy, vice president of Industry Communications for Fanatics Sportsbook, this July may be an even slower period since there are no Olympic or World Cup games being played.
That doesn’t mean all those working at Fanatics are down the shore grilling hot dogs.
“You might think that everyone takes vacations in July, but July is a big planning and production month for our employees, especially in marketing,” Hennessy said. “We have to use July to produce marketing campaigns for the start of football, which seems to get earlier and earlier each year. “
The company recently timed its successful Fanatics Fest in New York to coincide with the start of summer.
Intermission
From the bettor’s point of view, D.J. Mitchell, who handicaps the NHL from a statistical and daily fantasy sports perspective, spends most of July like the players he analyzes.
“When the NHL season ends, I generally shut it down for a few weeks and try to focus on visiting friends and family and trying to break 90 in golf, ” said Mitchell, of Morning Skate Pod and Puck Luck. “It’s good to take a little time off and reset. I do try and get a few NHL Draft bets down, but New York is very limited on those offers.”
While the sport Matt Grissom handicaps, college baseball, doesn’t share the same major league status as the NBA and NHL, he too is enjoying a welcomed respite.
“I typically take a couple of months off from betting after the College World Series is over,” said Grissom, the co-founder of College Baseball Insiders.
Center stage
It would seem that Major League Baseball would benefit the most from being July’s marquee sport, however those who focus most of their attention elsewhere aren’t overly interested in it filling the void.
“Certainly there’s still some hardcore MLB betting and fantasy folks who are active now, but I personally have no interest,” Mitchell said. “I love baseball, but I have no desire to lose money on home-run parlays.”
Mitchell believes all the work involved with handicapping MLB is a turn-off for most recreational bettors, even though they likely follow the sport during the summer.
“My issue with MLB betting or DFS is the fact games start from noon-10:30 p.m. EST and you’ll need to be on the lineups and news all day. Hard to work a 9-5 p.m. and pull that off without a lot of automation from a tout.”
He feels an optimal way bettors can stay active with that sport is to take part in a best ball fantasy league that requires just one draft and no roster management throughout the season.
Grissom could dive totally into the MLB once the College World Series ends, but he chooses to tread lightly.
“I don’t usually bet MLB until after the All-Star break. That’s typically when I have enough data to incorporate into my model that we use for college baseball, but even then, it’s minimal in comparison to the amount of volume I do in college baseball.”
MLB might be offering a host of games every July night, what bettors want, but not the value Grissom or others demand when making wagers.
“With the sharper lines and readily available data, the playing field feels much more level when handicapping the MLB, whereas I can often beat the books on college baseball lines. Because of that lack of an edge, it’s a lot harder to have the type of success handicapping MLB compared to college baseball.”
Still there are bettors out there who do focus on MLB and not much on the NBA or NHL.
A bettor for 50 years who goes by Coast2Coast is one of those and he’s busy in July.
“I don’t trust NBA officiating, and betting the NHL is like the NFL with such tight lines, it’s hard to win,” said Coast2Coast. “I bet MLB because for me there is value. I find it usually with underdogs and totals. I make numbers on the teams and pitching and bet value as I see it.”
Still, in July, Coast2Coast contends value is far less than during April-May. Those opening months, he was betting five games a day, while currently he is down to two to three.
Playing the field
Fanatics’ Hennessy said there are still plenty of July options for bettors willing to venture into new areas (at least for them).
“We will see an uptick in betting on tennis due to major events like Wimbledon and the U.S. Open, and women’s sports like the WNBA and NWSL will get their moment to shine,” he said. “Look for Caitlin Clark to be one of the most bet athletes in July.”
Over at Penn Entertainment’s ESPN Bet, they too are bullish on the WNBA capturing bettors’ July attention.
“The WNBA is in full swing, and the league has grown exponentially in betting popularity over the last few years,” said Jason Birney, vice president, operations, Penn Interactive.
“Wimbledon, which is already underway, will take us up to the week of The Open Championship.”
Tennis anyone?
A long time Las Vegas-based bettor who preferred not to use his name is one who specifically eschews MLB for tennis. He voiced a similar statement of knowing few people who are profitable MLB bettors. It’s even harder when starting pitchers rarely go deep and there’s a resulting reliance on relievers who stir up too much variance.
“Tennis is more predictable than baseball, ” said this veteran bettor. “And there’s many different markets where you can go in so many different ways.
“Check the weather, the surface, recent head-to-head matches and on what surface. There’s a lot more, that’s just a small sample. I feel it’s an easier sport to bet and the market is less efficient than the major sports.”
Based on the numbers Hennessy eyeballs at Fanatics, there are plenty of other tennis bettors out there with this mindset. In fact, he stated that most people don’t realize the level of popularity for tennis, especially with in-play wagering, with the pace of play nestled between baseball and hockey.
Coast2Coast also wagers on tennis, but he warns against just jumping into it now because other sports are on hiatus.
“I don’t know how people can bet tennis if they don’t follow it all season, unless they are just tailing proven winners,” said Coast2Coast. “It’s difficult to step into a sport mid-year and be effective doing your own work.”
Still, as more of the masses jump aboard the legalized sports betting train, could tennis grow as more look to solve the July doldrums?
Not necessarily, said the Vegas-based tennis bettor.
“It can as long as the menu is sufficient,” he said. “Most of the legal places right now it’s not. There is a lot of room for improvement with the legal books, but it’s possible they’re afraid of the many different markets in tennis.”
Offseason work
Sure, at the beginning of July there is some R&R for those associated with sports betting. But closer to the end of the month, it is back to work.
“I will personally dabble in some golf betting, but I don’t tout it because I’m using data that is not my own,” said Mitchell. “I wait for NHL Best Puck to drop on Underdog and dive headfirst back into hockey mid-July after free agents have signed.”
Grissom also uses the end of the month to address a quasi-free agent market and recalibrate his numbers.
“Soon I will spend a lot of this time reading through the transfer portal news in college baseball, recruiting, and watching who signs in the MLB Draft. All while taking notes that I’ll revisit after fall ball. This not only passes the time, but keeps me active.”
Birney is already counting down to 8 p.m. ET on July 31.
“After The Open [Championship], we’re just 11 days out from the NFL Hall of Fame Game.”
