When California’s top law enforcement officer decided to go after daily fantasy sports (DFS) last month, it wasn’t really about gambling law — it was about political survival.
And according to Dan Schnur, a veteran political strategist, it shows exactly how Democrats might be screwing up with voters they desperately need.
Democrats already lost big with young men in the 2024 presidential election as support among male voters dropped from 48% for Joe Biden in 2020 to just 42% for California’s own Kamala Harris. Among all voters under 30, Democrats lost six percentage points to Republicans between 2020 and 2024.
“This issue, DFS, carries a lot more weight now than any time in the past,” Schnur, founder of the USC/LA Times statewide political poll and a professor at the University of California-Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies and Pepperdine University’s Graduate School of Public Policy, told InGame. “Its user base has become a contested vote in the electorate. And so not surprisingly, politicians are taking it much more seriously now than they might have previously.”
But Attorney General Rob Bonta, a Democrat, apparently missed that memo. His July opinion that DFS is illegal in California has triggered exactly the kind of backlash that Democrats can’t afford now. And Bonta doubled down this week, telling KRCA 3, “The next step is our enforcement, and laws are meant to be enforced.”
Schnur says the move shows the party still doesn’t get the political moment it’s in and that alienating a potentially large voting block isn’t exactly a good idea.
Furthermore, Schnur believes the decision has little to do with Bonta’s beliefs and everything to do with something else.
“There’s one simple reason Bonta took the position he did,” Schnur said. “That’s because the tribes told him to.”
All about the tribes
This is where Schnur’s take gets interesting. The fantasy sports fight isn’t Democrats versus Republicans — it’s about who has real power in California politics versus a bunch of voters that Democrats say they want but keep shooing away.
“This isn’t the type of issue that cuts down along traditional partisan lines,” Schnur said. “The divisions are within the parties.”
The real fight is between California’s politically powerful Native American tribes, who see fantasy sports — and any gambling that isn’t controlled by them — as a threat to their casino business, and younger voters who think the government should stay out of their business.
For Bonta, the choice was easy. He’s not running for governor in 2026 like he originally planned, but he’s probably thinking about running later. The tribes have serious political power in California, and you don’t want to get on their bad side.
Gov. Gavin Newsom, however, immediately distanced himself from Bonta’s decision.
“Newsom doesn’t have to run for statewide office again in California,” Schnur pointed out. “If Newsom were in the middle of his first term in office rather than his second and final term, this might be a much more difficult decision for him.”
If Newsom runs for office again, “it’s going to be at the national level, where the tribes are not nearly as influential as they are within the state.”
So Newsom can afford to disagree with the tribes. Bonta can’t. That’s California politics in a nutshell.
Why this matters
The fantasy sports fight fits into a bigger problem for Democrats, according to Schnur. It’s not just about one questionable decision — it’s about a party that keeps making choices that turn off the very voters they need.
“Even in a state of almost 40 million people, there are some issues that can divide the electorate very, very closely,” Schnur warned. Young male voters “that might not vote in as large numbers as other demographics become really key in close elections. Something like this can clearly matter.”
Rep. Ro Khanna got it, calling the decision “boneheaded” and “tone-deaf.” But apparently not enough Democrats are listening.
Fantasy sports companies like DraftKings and FanDuel will “almost certainly” figure out that “working with the tribes rather than against them has a much greater chance of success,” Schnur said.
But the lesson for Democrats should be different. The question isn’t whether fantasy companies can make deals with tribes — it’s whether the party can stop making decisions that make young guys think Democrats are the fun police.
“The question is whether those few million fantasy players turn into millions of voters,” Schnur said.
The real problem
The fantasy sports controversy shows the basic problem that California Democrats have: They’re caught between powerful interest groups and the voters they actually need to win elections. In this case, tribal gaming interests won out over younger voters who already think Democrats are out of touch.
The timing makes it worse. While Democrats nationally are trying to figure out why young men are bailing on them, California’s top law enforcement officer just handed Republicans a perfect example of Democratic overreach.
The companies are already firing up their users, sending notifications about “Sacramento politicians” trying to ban their games. That’s exactly the kind of thing that turns policy fights into election problems.
For California Democrats, the fantasy sports decision is more than just a policy screw-up — it’s a perfect example of how not to rebuild a coalition. Schnur’s analysis makes it clear: When you’re already losing ground with young male voters, starting fights over their entertainment isn’t exactly brilliant politics.
The tribes may have won this round, but the electoral consequences could outlast any legal opinion. And that’s a gamble Democrats can’t afford to keep making.
