Prediction platform Polymarket could relaunch legally in the United States as early as Thursday after self-certifying sports events contracts and election markets on Tuesday with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Original filings set the launch date as not before Oct. 7, but those documents were changed by Wednesday afternoon to reflect a new date of Oct. 2.
The United States-facing version of the global prediction market gained regulatory approval from the CFTC to launch last month, according to CEO Shayne Coplan. The self-certification filing — done through QCEX, a CFTC-certified site Polymarket bought to gain market access — asserted it intends to offer:
- Athletic event contracts
- Athletics spreads contracts
- Total score contracts
- Election-winner event contracts
Polymarket’s relaunch of its U.S.-facing site would come three years after it was ordered to stop doing business in the States by the CFTC.
Americans who have registered for Polymarket’s waiting list should received a text at message directing them to the site for registration, according to a message on its homepage.
Polymarket’s return will bring the largest global prediction market to the U.S. According to Polymarket Analytics (which is not affiliated with the platform), Polymarket has a current trading volume of $877 million, as compared to U.S.-only Kalshi’s $291 million.
Scorned in the USA no more
Polymarket gained tacit approval from the CFTC to resume business in the U.S. through a no-action letter posted on Sept. 3. After the clarification of what industry analysts saw as minor issues in regard to “swaps” trading, Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan declared a “green light to go live” had been granted.
The company had not done business in the U.S. since agreeing to block users in January of 2022 and paying a $1.4 million civil penalty for operating an unregulated exchange. Polymarket’s return comes under a Trump Administration that has proved amenable to the growth of cryptocurrency and events markets.
Polymarket bought way back to US
In a period of numerous mergers, acquisitions, and seemingly odd partnerships between companies positioning themselves for what the American prediction market economy could become, Polymarket fast-tracked its return with cash. Acquiring CFTC approval often takes three years, but Polymarket’s purchase of the certified QCEX exchange in July eliminated that process. The purchase coincided with the Department of Justice ending probes into whether Polymarket had continued to serve customers in the U.S. despite its ouster.
Polymarket immediately trumpeted its impending return and opened a waitlist for would-be American customers.
One of the company’s X accounts had sparked anticipation that it might launch in time for the first NFL game of the season, though it turns out launch will come at least four weeks after that.
