Well, if there’s going to be a civil war, may as well profit from it. Maybe I should coin a term for this. How about … “war profiteer”? Yeah. That sounds about right.
Look ma! I’m going to be a war profiteer!
All I have to do is head on over to Polymarket — well, for the moment, I’d have to leave the country or get a VPN or hire someone who knows how to use a computer better than I do — and then head on over to Polymarket (recently given the “green light” to return to the U.S. of A., or as CEO Shayne Coplan put it in a tweet, “We’re coming home”) and bet — er, sorry, “buy an event contract” — on one of its newest offerings.
And the offering in question is “U.S. civil war in 2025?”
It seems the market appeared on the site at about 5:15 p.m. ET Wednesday, mere hours after Charlie Kirk was assassinated. Timing is everything, amirite?
It opened at 4.5% on “yes,” and was immediately bet down (event-contracted down?) to 2.1%, before settling, as of this writing some 20 hours later, at about 3.8%. Translation: I can buy $10,000 of “yes, Civil War in 2025” for 4 cents a contract, and if America tears itself asunder and brother starts killing brother, I stand to cash out over $175,000. Which would certainly come in handy, as I have my doubts the gambling news business would be a big winner during the war to end America as we know it.
As such, this fits exactly — I mean, exactly — into what a prediction market is designed to be, namely, an economic hedge. That’s what everyone used to say back in the old days. Heck, that’s what Robinhood is saying right now, this year, in its March 2025 “Prediction Market memo,” which reads, in part: “Businesses and investors can use these markets to hedge against uncertain events and associated risks, such as election outcomes, regulatory changes, or economic shifts. By taking positions in these markets, they can offset potential losses elsewhere in their portfolios. On the other side of the trade are the speculators who provide important liquidity in these markets by attempting to profit from price changes in futures contracts. This is no different than those speculators and retail participants who buy or sell futures contracts in agricultural products such as corn or wheat.”
So while Robinhood (and Kalshi) aren’t offering civil war event contracts — seems like they’re not allowed to, per the Commodity Exchange Act (CEA), which prohibits event contracts on terrorism, assassination, and war — Polymarket is, and it’s not quite yet under the umbrella of the CEA, which is enforceable by the CFTC, which means they can give a giant FU to America and not have anyone slap their wrists.
Because, I mean, come on: The country feels like a tinder box to begin with. A leading conservative voice is murdered, and the big brains at Polymarket decide to allow a “will civil war break out in America this year?” market to be posted?
Too much violence
For the record, this isn’t theoretical. A PRRI poll earlier this year found 14%(!) of Americans believe “true American patriots may have to resort to violence in order to save our country.” That’s before Polymarket decided to put a bounty on the table.
Is it an economic hedge? Oh sure. Just like corn and wheat.
But should they be offering it? I mean, there aren’t enough letters in the word “no” to properly get the feeling across, but I’ll try:
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO.
Here’s the thing: This market incentivizes violence. It may even be a call to violence. You know how to start a civil war? Take out more people. I don’t even want to name names here, but think of a few big shots on the left and right. Now think of them assassinated. Now think about what happens next.
What happens next is civil war, in one form or another.
And Polymarket — and this is not a gray area — is directly inciting it. Is it so far-fetched to think some deranged lunatic won’t put $10,000 on “yes” and then head to their local Gas ‘n’ Sip in their gun-law lacking state and decide to put a few loads of lead in their politician of (dis)choice? Sadly, the answer is “nope, not far-fetched at all.”
So listen up, you toads at Polymarket: Take this market down, now. You got a “green light” to come back into the United States market? Cool. We look forward to buying contracts on the Eagles-Chiefs game and whether the Fed is going to raise interest rates or if Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift — sorry, Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce — are going to be married before next June 15.
But putting up markets that can lead directly to violence and the ripping apart of America? No, Polymarket, don’t bring that here and don’t come home.
