InGame will consult with Fanatics Betting & Gaming trader Ethan Useloff each week to look quickly back and then ahead on what trends are shaping the NFL betting season. Useloff specializes in live trading. He’s appeared in outlets including ESPN, Fortune, ABC News, Fox Sports, USA Today, CBS Sports, Yahoo Sports, and Pro Football Network.
The 40-40 tie between Dallas and Green Bay on Sunday night was a bad result for sportsbooks for a multitude of reasons. Unlike with soccer, a tie as an outcome is not always offered and because they’re rare — the previous NFL deadlock was Dec. 4, 2022 — the wager wouldn’t likely be highly patronized. At most sportsbooks, therefore, ties are a push and the bet is voided. Parlays containing moneyline bets on tied games are recalculated.
Meaning: Moneyline bets on the Cowboys and Packers were voided. Bettors who opted for the spread of Dallas +6.5 made out better.
The game, featuring Micah Parsons’ return to Dallas after a contentious contract negotiation and preseason trade, produced the highest handle at Fanatics over the weekend. The game’s moneyline was responsible for 23% of the parlay handle there and 6% of same-game parlays (SPGs) long before kickoff.
“That was by far our biggest live game handle that we took,” Useloff said. “And part of the reason for that is obviously a lot of points are being scored. People get the notifications on their phone. They decide they want to bet or watch the game. Part of it also, that game took almost four hours to complete. So there’s more time for folks to get their bets on.
“So that’s another reason why it was very customer-friendly, because there was more time to bet on the moneyline that ended up voiding or SGPs where some of those other legs were able to hit. Other than the Thursday night game, it more than doubled every other game — or in some scenarios, tripled or quadrupled the live handle that we got.”
Baker, moneyline shaker
Baker Mayfield’s reputation as a chaos agent is well-documented. Things are going to happen around the Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback. Some good, some bad, no matter the perspective.
Mayfield obviously had Philadelphia right where he needed them for maximum mayhem on Sunday when the Eagles took a 24-6 lead into halftime at Raymond James Stadium.
Mayfield threw touchdowns of 77 and 72 yards in the second half and had the Bucs within 31-23 while on the Eagles’ 11 midway through the fourth quarter … but was intercepted in the end zone. A late rally ended on a fourth-down incompletion and a 31-25 loss.
The game opened at -190 for the Eagles and exploded to -17000 when an apparent rout was on.
“After that though, like while the comeback was happening,” Useloff said, “it got all the way down to +165 for the Bucs and -225 for the Eagles.”
Road dogs forever?
The Minnesota Vikings will have spent more time in Europe than the real vikings by the time they hit Heathrow after a matchup with Cleveland at Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Sunday.
This is verifiably untrue, of course, but spending 11 days there and playing consecutive games as the “away” team in Dublin — where the Vikings lost to the Steelers 24-21 on Sunday — and then London is not only odd, but a variable for oddsmakers. While non-traditional venue games are not in and of themselves more challenging to analyze — because both teams must deal with variables like unfamiliar field conditions — making sense of the Minnesota sojourn is different, Useloff said.
“That’s a real factor to consider,” Useloff said. “They’re 3.5-point favorites over Cleveland. You can, in a vacuum, analyze that game and think what you want. But Cleveland’s probably not much of a home team in London. I don’t know that there’s much in the way of a Cleveland-to-London pipeline the way there is for Pittsburgh, with a lot of Dublin-based or Irish Steelers fans because of the Rooney connection, his ambassadorship to Ireland.”
So, assuming the Vikings don’t pound pork pies and Old Speckled Hens all week, they trade a road game for a neutral site contest with a solid chance at a third win at the cost of one — albeit lengthy — plane ride.
“I think that’s a big advantage for the Vikings to be playing what’s considered a road game for them, despite being internationally based for a full week in advance. I think that is a big advantage,” Useloff said. “Maybe you give them half a point or a point that shows up in the spread that some of these really shrewd bettors are analyzing.”
Bettors, however, appear to be leaning into homesickness as actionable information. The Vikings had opened as 5-point favorites.
Betting favorites hurting
Everyone’s hurt.
Everyone except Lamar Jackson.
Wait. Now the Ravens quarterback may be, too, after leaving a 37-20 loss at Kansas City on Sunday with an apparent hamstring injury.
As a result of Baltimore’s 1-3 record and the injury, Jackson moved from +250 and “neck-and-neck” with Bills counterpart Josh Allen as the Most Valuable Player favorite to +800.
“Part of the reason why he’s now gotten pushed out is the team does not look nearly as good,” Useloff said. “But part of it’s also maybe he’s in danger of missing a game or two with the hamstring. “
Oddly, the Ravens remain third-favorite (+750) to win the Super Bowl, shorter than the Chiefs (+1000), despite losing to them.
Notable NFL injuries:
Brandon Aiyuk, San Francisco WR — Knee — On IR
Nick Bosa, San Francisco DL — Knee — Out for Season
Joe Burrow, Cincinnati QB — Turf toe surgery — Possible late-season return
James Conner, Arizona RB — Ankle — Out for Season
Jayden Daniels, Washington QB — Knee sprain — Day-to-day
Tank Dell, Houston WR — Knee — IR
Mike Evans, Tampa Bay WR — Hamstring — Day-to-day
Najee Harris, Los Angeles Chargers RB — Achilles — Out for Season
Lamar Jackson, Baltimore QB — Hamstring — Left Week 4 game
Aaron Jones, Minnesota RB — Hamstring — On IR
George Kittle, San Francisco TE — Hamstring — On IR
Terry McLaurin, Washington WR — Quad — Day to day
Jalen McMillan, Tampa Bay WR — Neck — On IR
Joe Mixon, Houston RB — Foot — On IR
Malik Nabers, NY Giants WR — ACL — Out for the season
Brock Purdy, San Francisco QB — AC joint sprain — Missed two games
Jayden Reed, Green Bay WR — Collarbone — On IR
Tyjae Spears, Tennessee RB — Ankle — On IR
Interesting game alert:
Tampa Bay (3-1) at Seattle (3-1), Sunday. Spread: Seahawks, -3
Useloff: “I’m really excited personally for Tampa and Seattle. I think that’s a really fun matchup to see. I think that Seattle’s defense is a lot better than they’ve been given credit for in the national media. And that Bucs offense obviously is well-balanced, despite the injury to Mike Evans. Emeka Egbuka looks awesome. And their team overall, they not only have a lot of grit, but they are obviously a really talented team.
“Their defensive line is going to give the Seattle O-line some fits when they try to run the ball with [Zach] Charbonnet and [Kenneth] Walker III. And the game’s being played in Seattle, which I always find to be fun.
“Tampa’s flying however many miles that is from Tampa all the way up to Seattle. So that’s a tough road game for them and a tough environment to play.”
