Despite the current government shutdown, which would seem to impact a new prediction market’s ability to self-certify markets, Bloomberg Tuesday broke the news that Polymarket is planning a limited launch of its U.S. site in late November. Polymarket previously was aiming for a late September or early October launch, but the site is not yet live in the U.S.
Bloomberg cited confidential sources that said Polymarket will offer sports event contracts as part of its launch, and that the timing is so that the company can leverage the end of the college football and NFL seasons and the start of the college basketball and NBA seasons. Per the story, Polymarket won’t be “broadly available to everyone.”
Polymarket’s launch would mark a return to the U.S. after the company was banned by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) in 2022. Polymarket paid a $1.4 million fine at that point, but has since gotten a $2 billion investment from NYSE owner Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) and secured a marketing partnership with the NHL. It also purchased exchange QCEX — which is licensed by the CFTC — in July to gain access to the U.S.
The news that Polymarket is again prepping for launch was the second of two key pieces of prediction market news Tuesday. Earlier in the day, Trump Media and Technology Group announced that it will enter the prediction market space through a partnership with Crypto.com. In a press release, Trump Media said it will embed the prediction markets into the social media platform Truth Social. Crypto.com is already offering sports event contracts on its own platform as well on the Underdog app via a technology partnership.
Traditional sports betting companies DraftKings and Flutter (owner of FanDuel) felt the effects of today’s announcements, as their stocks dropped significantly on the news. Stock prices for both companies have been on a downward trend since the NBA sports betting and poker scandals broke Friday.
Shutdown a problem?
Polymarket founder Shayne Copland pointed to a fall launch as early as Sept. 3, when he posted that the company had been “given the green light” from the CFTC to launch in the U.S. The company initially filed for an Oct. 7 launch date, and then altered the filings to reflect Oct. 2. The U.S. government shut down Oct. 1, and there has been little word since then about the status.
CFTC licensed operators can self-certify their markets, and competitor Kalshi has continued to offer a wide array of sports and other contracts since the shutdown. Traditionally, self-certification has been halted during a government shutdown, but InGame reported in early October that the CFTC chairman — in this case, Acting Chair Caroline Pham — can change the rules, though there has been no formal announcement that she has done so.
During the self-certification process, a designated contract market (DCM) alerts the CFTC that it has a new market to list. The agency can review or deny the market, but if it does neither, the market is considered approved. Pham is currently the only commissioner at the CFTC.
Bloomberg did not indicate how or why Polymarket chose late November for launch, or if the company believes that it would benefit from having the government shutdown be over.
