InGame will consult with Fanatics Betting & Gaming trader Ethan Useloff each week to look quickly back and then ahead on what trends are shaping the NFL betting season. Useloff specializes in live trading. He’s appeared in outlets including ESPN, Fortune, ABC News, Fox Sports, USA Today, CBS Sports, Yahoo Sports, and Pro Football Network.
The National Football League’s most interesting and verifiably impactful trade happened nowhere close to last Tuesday’s deadline.
Green Bay’s preseason acquisition of a disgruntled Micah Parsons — poisoned pill and all — from Dallas has been smashing, with the pass rusher having amassed 6.5 sacks and created general mayhem for a Green Bay team currently leading the NFC North.
A few other notable deals transpired near the deadline, with wide receiver/returner specialist Rashid Shaheed going from New Orleans to Seattle and defensive tackle Quinnen Williams escaping from New York for … Dallas?
But it’s the other Jets trade, cornerback Sauce Gardner to Indianapolis that could prove extremely meaningful. If anything, Useloff said, the 8-2, AFC South-leading Colts have made their intentions clear.
“I think when you look at the biggest trade deadline acquisition in Sauce Gardner to Indy, that makes their team a whole heck of a lot better come, I think, the time that it counts, and that’s when the fields can shrink,” he said. “You’re going to have more chess piece moves come December, January, and if they’re able to get there into February. That, to me, is what this move does. It also signals the fact that this team is ready to try to compete right now.”
Indianapolis remains a consensus +1100 pick to win the Super Bowl at the most impending right now, the same odds as Green Bay and Seattle.
What did we learn on Sunday?
A lot, Useloff said.
“I feel like we’re in the point of the season, in the early double-digit weeks where you start to really learn who teams are, who’s going to be good, who’s going to maybe struggle,” he said.
New England, which won at Tampa Bay, 28-23, is the real thing: “I feel like I learned a good amount about them,” Useloff said. “Going into the year, I think their win projection was about 8.5, maybe 9.5 on some books, and they’ve already almost exceeded that mark [at 8-2]. I think going into Tampa and winning that game in the fashion they did is impressive. They already knocked off Buffalo. They’re absolutely going to be a player come January that teams are going to be worried about. They’re right now -225 for the division. Buffalo’s +175.”
The Houston Texans, who scored 26 fourth-quarter points to beat Jacksonville 36-29, are enigmatic, but the Jaguars are just woeful: “The Texans are a really difficult team to figure out in my opinion,” Useloff said. “But they absolutely dominated that fourth quarter, came all the way back.”
NOTE: While Fanatics had Texans favored by 0.5 against Jacksonville, many other sportsbooks were at -1.5. On the Jags’ last-gasp play deep in their end, Trevor Lawrence was sacked at the Jacksonville 32, fumbled, and Houston scooped and scored for the 36-29 final and devilish cover.
Seattle, which beat Arizona, 44-22, and the Rams, who crushed San Francisco, 42-26, are going to be fun when they meet next week: “Seattle and LA are on a crash course for next week, and then when they play again in the 16th week of the season, those two games are going to decide the division,” Useloff said, “potentially, the one seed in the NFC. It’s certainly going to decide seeding, and I’m super excited for those two games.”
Seattle (7-2) has the eighth-hardest remaining strength of schedule with their opponents — including Indianapolis — managing a collective .547 win percentage. Los Angeles (7-2) is seventh at .548, with notable upcoming dates with Detroit and Tampa Bay.
The NFC North is going to be a fight between the Packers (5-2), Lions (6-3), and Bears (6-3): “Right now, the Packers are +105 [to win the division], very slight advantage over the Lions’ +110,” Useloff said. “Part of that is also they just haven’t played this week, the Packers, and then the Bears are +900.
“So should the Packers win [Monday night] in a game that they are just very slight favorites [over Philadelphia], half a point right now for our book, they would go to probably about odds-on maybe -105 for that division. And then if you look at strength of schedule remaining, Green Bay has the fifth-hardest strength of schedule, Detroit the sixth hardest, so it’s very similar matchups remaining.”
Maye VP?
New England quarterback Drake Maye continues to acquire real estate formerly held by the likes of fellow signal callers Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes: division leader, and now, Most Valuable Player favorite.
After helping improve the Patriots’ record to 8-2 and division lead to 1.5 games over Buffalo in the AFC East, Maye has become the MVP favorite at Fanatics at +275.
Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford is at +300, Colts running back Jonathan Taylor at +500, and Mahomes at +550.
It’s an individual award with a massive team component, Useloff said.
“To me, it becomes ever more important getting that one seed when it comes to the MVP,” he explained. “You get the bye, you’re the top team in your conference, you’re potentially the top team in the entire league from a record perspective.”
That, he said, makes the Seahawks-Rams tussle on Sunday important beyond their battle for first place in the NFC West. Seahawks QB Sam Darnold is currently a +800 pick for MVP.
“The winner of that game is going to be a top-three MVP candidate because they have possession of their division and of their conference, to be able to control their destiny, to be able to host a playoff game, which is a pretty big deal,” Useloff said. “It’s tough to be the MVP as a wild card.”
No Taylor? He leads the NFL in scrimmage yards, rush yards and rushing touchdowns, but, like everyone else, knows deep down that MVP is a quarterback award. The last running back to win MVP was Adrian Peterson in 2012. Just four running backs have won the award this century.
“I think it’s going to be tough for a running back to win MVP,” Useloff conceded.
So you’re saying there’s a chance?
“But given the overall lack of clear teams that we can consider elite in the NFL,” he continued, “I think that if the Colts are able to win 13, 14 games, it’s hard not to consider Jonathan Taylor a legitimate MVP candidate.”
