InGame consults with Fanatics Betting & Gaming trader Ethan Useloff each week to look quickly back and then ahead on what trends are shaping the NFL betting season. Useloff specializes in live trading. He’s appeared in such outlets as ESPN, Fortune, ABC News, Fox Sports, USA Today, CBS Sports, Yahoo Sports, and Pro Football Network.
The Kansas City Chiefs-Dallas Cowboys Thanksgiving Day game could be one of the most-watched, and, in theory, most-bet National Football League games of all time.
It’s a 4:30 ET game, when much of the East Coast and Midwest dining will have been concluded and those who pretend to be bad at washing dishes will have waddled onto something recline-able near a television.
The Chiefs, who have won two of the last three Super Bowls, are 6-5, and currently outside the AFC playoff grid. They are in dire need of another win like their narrow escape over the Colts last week to bolster their chances.
The Cowboys (5-5-1) are in even worse shape, but they are the Cowboys, so fans will watch. Just like they do the Chiefs. The game combines the two most-watched teams in the NFL.
The record viewership for any regular-season NFL game came on Thanksgiving in 2022, when the Giants and Cowboys drew 42 million sets of eyes in the same late-afternoon slot.
Some analysts predict a viewership for this one in excess of 50 million, which is basically if everyone in Texas and Missouri got together to watch and, for whatever reason, invited Utah over.
With a recent Pew Research Center poll finding that 22% of Americans have placed a sports bet in 2025, that equates to a lot of potential post-pie parlays.
“You have, in the Dallas Cowboys, the biggest-market team overall, clashing with the most polarizing team in the NFL,” Useloff said. “And there’s also a lot at stake, just given where both these teams are trending right now with the Chiefs almost hanging on for dear life, it feels like, clinging to that small chance of being able to thread the needle and make the playoffs, and the Cowboys now sitting at 5-5 after that remarkable comeback [last week against Philadelphia].
“All that is going to feed into the betting allure, and to quantify [volume] would be difficult, but there certainly are folks who don’t bet that regularly who are going to come out of the woodwork to bet on Thanksgiving.”
Here are Useloff’s additional insights on the trio of Turkey Day games:
Packers at Lions, 1 p.m. ET
Useloff: “Detroit opened as 3-point favorites and it has quickly shifted to 2.5-point favorites over Green Bay. That’s in large part due to being at home and, overall, the way that Green Bay has had a very oscillating look to them. They’ve looked real dominant in some games and they’ve looked really poor offensively in others. The total, as well, has shifted down a half-point, from 49.5 to 49 flat.
“A lot of folks are hoping Detroit wins: Ninety percent of our handle is coming through them and 77 percent of our bets so far.”
Chiefs at Cowboys, 4:30 p.m. ET
Useloff: “Despite the Cowboys being at home, we’ve seen the Chiefs stay at that 3.5-point mark as favorites. I’d expect them to close as favorites around this field goal mark at 3 or 3.5 due to their understanding of how large this game is for them. The Chiefs, in the remainder of their schedule, they play Dallas, Houston, the Chargers, Tennessee, Denver, and the Raiders. I’d say they can lose maybe one of those games, just given how tight that AFC wild card is. Maybe two. The Chargers, Jaguars, and Bills all have a game advantage over them. The Bills have the head-to-head. The Jaguars have the head-to-head. The Chargers, as of now, have the head-to-head. They’ll play in a few weeks. With the Chiefs owning almost none of the tiebreakers, they’re going to have to win probably five of their remaining games. This is not a game they can afford to drop, being favorites.
“So far, we have 85 percent of the handle and 69 percent of the tickets on the Chiefs to win. Similarly, but in the opposite effect, at that 3.5 mark, a lot of folks have Dallas to cover the plus-3.5, 81 percent of the money and 60 percent of the tickets. So, a lot of folks are expecting a very close game, but with the Chiefs being able to eke it out under a field goal.”
Bengals at Ravens, 8:20 p.m. ET
Useloff: “We opened at 7.5-point favorites for Baltimore. It has now gotten back down to 7-flat. That number, we’ll see if it ends up moving. This is a game that maybe [Cincinnati quarterback] Joe Burrow returns, maybe not. Baltimore, I think, has looked a little bit underwhelming the last couple weeks, but they’re already in possession of their division, they’ve rattled off five straight games after starting 5-1.
“We’re seeing a ton of money on them, 92 percent of the money, 84 percent of the tickets. And on that spread, because it’s 7-flat, we see a lot more Cincinnati bets at 61 percent of the money and 55 percent of the tickets, just because it’s at that touchdown mark. And a lot of folks think that that is too large of a margin for a Baltimore team that hasn’t been able to shut the door on teams the last couple of weeks. They’ve had three straight wins within 13 points and two of those one score.”
Awards season
Los Angeles Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford remains the favorite for Most Valuable Player at -225, with New England counterpart Drake Maye second at +210.
“It really is becoming a two-horse race,” Useloff said. “And as you look at the standings, you have the top two teams by half a game or more in each of their respective conferences. If one of those teams gets the one seed in the conference, the other doesn’t, it seems like that respective quarterback would end up winning the MVP.
“That being said, if you look at the stats right now for those two quarterbacks, Drake Maye: 21 touchdown passes, six interceptions, 3,100 yards; Stafford: 30 touchdowns, two interceptions, 2,800 yards. And the Patriots haven’t had their bye yet. So some of the counting stats will shift toward Stafford.”
The other awards are getting more interesting at Fanatics, though, Useloff said.
Offensive Player of the Year
“Jonathan Taylor was a runaway favorite, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba is now almost co-favorite in terms of our odds, -125 for Taylor and -105 for JSN,” Useloff said. “I think the disparity between JSN to the second-leading receiver, which is George Pickens, 259 yards behind, I think that’s a pretty staggering discrepancy, versus Jonathan Taylor is up 113 yards on James Cook. He has a bunch more rush touchdowns. He’s at 15, Cook’s at 8, so that does play into his hand as well. But if you look between Smith-Njigba and Pickens, Pickens has one more touchdown receiving than JSN. So I think it’s an intriguing race down the stretch.”
Note: The Seahawks host Indianapolis on Dec. 14.
Offensive Rookie of the Year
“[Tetairoa] McMillan is now +115. He was 15-1 a couple weeks ago, followed by Tampa Bay wide receiver [Emeka] Egbuka and [Giants quarterback Jaxson] Dart,” Useloff said. “I think Dart’s angle is interesting, if they’re able to win a couple more games. That being said, the Giants winning a couple more games might be tough with all the turmoil they’re going through.”
Comeback Player of the Year
“[San Francisco running back Christian] McCaffrey is -125 and [Dallas quarterback] Dak Prescott is +100,” Useloff said. “I think if Dak and those Cowboys continue to surge, that’s going to be a very interesting one. But that being said, you have McCaffrey, 10th in receiving yards, 10th in rushing yards. That’s a pretty impressive stat line. But Dak does play quarterback, and he’s third right now in passing yards, and he is tied for second in passing touchdowns. So it’ll be a fascinating award to see.”
