InGame Projection: Missouri Handle To Open At $425 Million-Plus

The hope is the Show Me State will show plenty of sports wagering.

On Monday, Missouri will become the first state to launch commercial sports betting since North Carolina did so March 11, 2024, and the 35th jurisdiction overall. It will also be a simultaneous, multi-operator launch as eight operators will conduct business as early as 12:01 a.m. local time.

The excitement that comes with a state launch is palpable and the culmination of a winding, arduous, and sometimes lengthy process. Missouri legislators, voters, and regulators bucked the trend in terms of length, going from voter approval to sportsbook launch in less than 13 months. It could have been faster, but Missouri Secretary of State Denny Hoskins rejected proposed emergency sports betting rules filed by the state’s gaming commission in February that could have had wagering commence in June.

Missouri will feature everyone among the “who’s who” of mobile sports betting. Circa Sports provided the intrigue by securing one of the two stand-alone mobile licenses that the Missouri Gaming Commission made available along with an expected licensee in DraftKings. The other six operators — bet365, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, Fanatics Sportsbook, FanDuel, and theScore — have partnered with brick-and-mortar casinos or sports teams as their method for entry.

Promotional introductory offers have already started ahead of launch, and the combined spend in December will likely exceed $100 million. Operators will be allowed to deduct up to a maximum of 25% of wagers received, which allows for creativity and aggressiveness. The business-friendly 10% tax rate on adjusted gross revenue will also help.

InGame projects December handle will top $425 million based on reviews of previous multi-state launches, projected promotional spend, sporting events, and other factors. Here is how InGame arrived at this figure.

Demographics and draws

According to World Population Review, Missouri has an estimated population of nearly 6.3 million. That makes it the 19th-most populous state in the U.S. It also provides some like-for-like aspects for sports betting comparison purposes sandwiched between Maryland and Colorado, which also have six million-plus residents.

Because Colorado launched sports betting in the throes of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, there is no useful information to glean from its first month of operations. Maryland, meanwhile, conducted retail wagering for nearly a year before a seven-operator simultaneous launch in November 2021. Thus, there was a build-up in terms of pent-up demand similar to what Missouri bettors have had to “endure.”

A December launch gives Missouri bettors access to a jam-packed sports calendar. The NFL, NBA, NHL, and college basketball are in full swing. College football has lower volume but higher-profile games in conference championships, bowls and opening rounds of the College Football Playoff.

The biggest draw will be the Kansas City Chiefs. Bettors no longer need to cross into Kansas, Illinois, Iowa, and Kentucky to place mobile bets. Two of their four games in December are nationally televised primetime contests, including one Christmas night against the Denver Broncos.

St. Louis Blues fans also will have more convenient wagering available instead of crossing into Illinois to make bets either online or at DraftKings at Casino Queen in East St. Louis. The state’s college flagship, the University of Missouri, is bowl-eligible and likely playing a December contest with a projected mid-tier finish in the Southeastern Conference.

Looking at past launches …

Going back to Maryland’s mobile launch in November 2021, six states have had launches with at least six operators. Five of them published promotional spend among digital sportsbooks, offering potential clues to what may unfold in Missouri.

Maryland’s mobile operators had an outlay of $134.8 million in the first 39 days when combining the late November launch and all of December. Fast forward to September 2022, when the six online sportsbooks in Kansas spent just over $34.4 million with a launch at the top of the month.

Then there was Ohio, home to arguably the best perfect storm of a launch in the post-PASPA era. Sixteen operators launched on New Year’s Day 2023 with a flagship college program in the CFP and an NFL team en route to a division title. That contributed to a staggering $320 million in credits and bonuses accounting for 28.7% of a $1.1 billion debut handle.

Massachusetts does not disclose promotional spending in its monthly reports, which moves us along to Kentucky in September 2023. The seven sportsbooks in the Bluegrass State spent $99.8 million wooing bettors the first 33 days of business.

North Carolina timed its launch last year days ahead of the NCAA Tournament; a savvy move as a hotbed of college basketball. One Cinderella run by N.C. State to the Final Four later — made sweeter with a victory over Duke to get there — and there was $282.3 million spent by the eight operators spanning the first six weeks.

… and potential spending patterns

Of the five states that provided promotional spend totals, four published operator promotional spend; North Carolina does not publish any individual operator information in its monthly reports. It also should be noted timing is key when reviewing these four states.

Fanatics’ predecessor PointsBet launched in Maryland and Kansas, and Missouri will mark the return of theScore as Penn Entertainment’s digital sportsbook in the U.S. following its decision to terminate its agreement with ESPN Bet. Penn’s sportsbook brand at the time of the four launches listed below was ESPN Bet predecessor Barstool Sportsbook.

Of the eight operators set to launch Monday, only four — BetMGM, Caesars, DraftKings, and FanDuel — appear in their current form across all six previous launches.

InGame has a helpful guide in terms of existing and expected offers leading into Monday and post-launch. That will lead to a frenzy of wagering throughout December as bettors burn through introductory promotions.

It is all but certain FanDuel and DraftKings will be 1-2 for spend. The biggest question: How deep will FanDuel and DraftKings dig into their pockets to command market share? The second-biggest question: How much are bet365, BetMGM, and Fanatics willing to spend to be atop the second tier? Second question first, because it’s the more exciting storyline.

Battle for No. 3 may be more important than No. 1

Bet365, BetMGM, and Fanatics could provide more entertainment than watching FanDuel and DraftKings fire their promotional money cannons at each other. When bet365 has participated in a simultaneous launch, the England-based sportsbook has come to play. It spent $21.4 million in Kentucky and $16 million in Ohio.

Fanatics has been on an upward trajectory for two years and is now No. 3 for handle in Illinois, Pennsylvania, and Massachusetts. That path includes going toe-to-toe with bet365 in large-state markets. Both operators have spent eight-figure promotional sums this year in Pennsylvania, Arizona, and Ohio to varying degrees of success.

Underdog’s eleventh-hour withdrawal from the sports betting marketplace makes theScore the biggest X-factor for promotional spend. TheScore was Penn’s original U.S. sportsbook entrant, but any traction gained in Missouri is likely part of a larger strategy connected to the nationwide rebrand.

A little bit of prologue

There are a few factors working in Missouri’s favor heading into Monday. Let’s start with the double-edged sword of cross-state betting. All of the Missouri-based bettors now staying at home churning through free bets likely will be joined by contingents from Kansas and Illinois, and maybe a few Iowans making the trek south.

The Chiefs fighting for their playoff lives is a plus. The potential for four games of tense live wagering with a one-score margin in either direction, including two standalone games on national television, could be a useful springboard for higher handle.

One potential sneaky way to bump up December handle: pre-paid Christmas gift cards to your favorite sportsbook. Is there anything more convenient and low maintenance of a stocking stuffer — especially in a tightening economy — than a $25 gift card?

Another low-key handle driver will be retail sportsbooks. At least eight of Missouri’s 13 brick-and-mortar casinos will have launches Monday, and expectations are some among the other five will launch during the month.

Estimating promotional spend is a fool’s errand, but one that must be undertaken to provide a handle figure. In the five previous multi-operator launches with promotional figures available, the collective outlay in the first month — regardless of the length to the end of the month — was more than 20% of total handle. In North Carolina, it was 30.7% before gliding downward to 21.6% when including the first full month of wagering.

No one is expecting Ohio redux, and the $200 million-plus outlay in North Carolina the first three weeks appears out of reach. But a collective $150 million spend over an entire month with 25% deductions available? That feels attainable, perhaps more so with the uniformity of FanDuel, DraftKings, Fanatics, and bet365 all offering hundreds of dollars in free bets with an initial $5 wager.

After all, convenience creates converts.

Who might spend what

The expectation is FanDuel and DraftKings will spend at least $50 million apiece — and likely higher. This is how titans remain titans. Bet365, Fanatics, and BetMGM also project to eight figures, but at lesser levels.

Missouri’s deduction allowances not available in Ohio and Kentucky give bet365 a chance to be ultra-aggressive and go dollar-for-dollar versus Fanatics. On the flip side, Fanatics’ decision not to chase bettors in Kentucky provided a lasting lesson. Its $203.6 million cumulative handle there since launch tops only ESPN BET among traditional mobile sportsbooks and is less than half of bet365’s $454.3 million.

Fanatics’ growth has created higher expectations. It has willingly spent in existing markets to compete in that second tier. A 10% market share in Missouri is attainable, but it likely starts with a $10 million-plus outlay while staring down bet365.

BetMGM’s usual spend at launch almost always assures itself a top-5 spot. It was willing to spend $10 million in Kansas to for a top-3 spot that it still holds. That same amount two years later, though, may be Missouri’s top-five entry point with the increased competition.

There is little expectation for Penn to spend big given Monday coincides with theScore’s nationwide launch. Reasonable spend estimates range from $1.5 million to $2.5 million. Caesars projects to spend slightly more in sensible fashion, likely maxing out around $3 million.

Circa, as a boutique sportsbook catering to high-end bettors with no-limit wagering, does not play the game. As a point of regional comparison, Circa has a 1.4% market share in Iowa this year. That projects monthly handle during the busier part of the sports season in Missouri to roughly $6 million.

Put it all together and …

Promotional spend will undoubtedly be the key driver of first-month handle in Missouri. One can argue $500 million in wagering is viable with the estimated $150 million promotional spend, but Missouri has a smaller out-of-state border population compared to Maryland. Bettors will come over the state line for those introductory offers, but it may not be as far reaching.

Additionally, Kansas and Illinois have an established retail sportsbook presence. That makes the expectation that an overwhelming majority of in-person handle will be generated by Missouri residents.

Sports betting handle has long defied gravity with year-over-year growth, and 2025 is no exception with $160 billion handle nationally in play. But disposable income in an already tightening economy is at more of a premium during the holidays.

Accordingly, one potential drag on first-month handle could be lesser-sized deposits after promotional churn is completed. Another would be a Chiefs collapse in early December that leads to meaningless football later in the month. Allowing for those scenarios, a projected handle of $425 million feels reasonable, with upside ranging to $450 million.