I was (finally) at G2E this past autumn. It was fun, as these things go. Met a lot of people face-to-face I had only spoken or emailed with previously. It was like my LinkedIn page came to life.
And everyone I met at the Global Gaming Expo, everyone I talked to, every conversation I eavesdropped on, every other phrase out of everyone’s mouth was prediction markets. Because of course. Because in 2025, prediction markets upset the apple cart of sports betting, and there was a mad rush to capitalize on it, and there are plenty of people worried about it, and there are plenty of lawyers billing big hours concerning it, and a lot of politicians are wagging their fingers about it, and and and and and.
Yep, 2025 was definitely the year of the prediction markets. Might even be worth capitalizing. The Year of the Prediction Markets.
Now, go back a year ago. G2E, 2024. I wasn’t there. We wrote about it. From my co-worker Eric Raskin’s piece: “At G2E 2024, taking place this week at the Venetian, you could almost say sweeps is the conversation.”
Oh, yeah. Sweeps. Remember sweeps? They were all the rage a year ago. Because in 2024, the sweepstakes model upset the apple cart of gambling, and there was a mad rush to capitalize on it, and there were plenty of people worried about it, and there were plenty of lawyers billing big hours concerning it, and a lot of politicians were wagging their fingers about it, and and and and and.
And guess what? Lawmakers and regulators in at least 20 states (by my count) have either passed laws or statutes banning the sweepstakes model (or making them basically illegal), or have bills pending.
While I won’t stand here and say the sweepstakes model is dead, I will say it’s … well, it’s not doing anywhere near as well as people would’ve guessed a year ago.
So, a year ago, sweeps were overtaking the nation, bringing sports betting and other forms of gambling by any other name to all 50 states.
Sound familiar, prediction markets?
Same but different
Do I think prediction markets will be banned on a state-by-state level like the sweepstakes operators? Well, probably not, as there’s federal law and assorted hoo-ha I’m not smart enough to understand or write about.
But I do think that anyone who thinks prediction markets, as they currently exist, are fait accompli, well, I think that’s kind of insane.
The American Gaming Association (AGA) is dead set against prediction markets operating in the sports betting space. A handful of states have waded into the legal waters. Many, if not most, watchers believe this is all going to end up in front of the United States Supreme Court.
And that last bit? That’s the part that should keep the Tarek Mansours and the Shayne Coplans up at night.
Let’s take a trip down memory lane, all the way back to 2018. The Supreme Court didn’t legalize sports betting by overturning PASPA. The Supreme Court said the federal government couldn’t tell states they couldn’t legalize sports betting. Murphy v. NCAA. States’ rights. The feds can’t commandeer state regulatory machinery.
Now here come Kalshi and Polymarket and all the rest, basically arguing that because the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) says their self-certified sports contracts are legit, states can pound sand. Federal preemption. The CFTC giveth, and the states can’t taketh away.
Maybe — just spitballin’ — there’s a little problem here.
The same court that handed states the authority to regulate sports betting may be asked to say, “Nope, never mind, the federal machinery wins this round.”
In 2026, something new?
Maybe they pull it off. Stranger things have happened. But as of right now, Kalshi is fighting in numerous states. A Nevada court reversed course and said the state can enforce its gaming laws. More than 30 states have signed on to a pair of amicus briefs saying, essentially, “This is gambling, and gambling is our business.” The split in the lower courts almost guarantees the Supremes will weigh in. Eventually. Maybe 2027. Maybe 2028.
Meanwhile, DraftKings and FanDuel have quit the AGA over this. Fanatics followed them out the door. They’ve withdrawn their Nevada license applications. They’re launching prediction market products in states where sports betting is banned and are wagering — pun very much intended — that the feds will shield them.
Maybe they’re right. Maybe prediction markets are the future and traditional sportsbooks are the past and the AGA is the trade group for buggy-whip manufacturers.
Or maybe the PM tech bros are the ones who didn’t learn from the sweepstakes story.
Time will tell.
A year from now, we’ll all be at G2E again. My prediction? Everyone will be talking about something else. Some new shiny object that’s going to upend everything, change the game, disrupt the disruptors.
The only semi-constant in this industry is that today’s sure thing is tomorrow’s cautionary tale.
Put another way, to quote the late, great, and missed Dave Sharapan: Nobody knows shit.
See you next October. I recommend the sushi bar at Nomikai.
