A short and very incomplete list of things that I consider myself agnostic about:
- Prediction markets
- Religion
And it just so happens that those two disparate items clunked together in a way that makes me a little less agnostic about one of them.
Over at Polymarket, right now you can buy a contract on the following item: “Will Jesus Christ return before 2027?” Some $22 million and change has already been traded on this market and the price is sitting, as of this writing, at 4 cents on the “yes.” If you ask me, that’s a little rich, but what do I know?
Earlier this week, a second Jesus Christ market closed. That was a derivative market that asked, “Jesus Christ return before 2027 Odds >5% February 17, 12-1 AM?” The derivative market ended up with over $665,000 in trades, settling at zero. Not only did Jesus’ return not stay above 5 cents, it didn’t even get there, peaking at 4.7 cents on Feb. 10.
The interesting part, however, is where this all started. The main market had been hovering around 2.5 cents for the year, then the derivative market popped up, and people started buying the return of Jesus, pushing the price to its high of 4.7 cents.
If this fact were appearing on CNN or any other media outlet, the headline would be clear. Take it away, Wolf Blitzer. “This just into the CNN newsroom: The odds of Jesus Christ returning in 2026 have nearly doubled on the prediction market Polymarket.”
In fact — and incredibly — that’s exactly the tack Polymarket itself took, going on X to crow about the increase in odds.
To the uneducated consumer, it would appear something of a very biblical nature had happened for the price of His return to nearly double in mere hours.
But for those watching closely, it wouldn’t have taken the love child of Warren Buffett and Jim Cramer to suss out what was actually going on: People were trying to game the system. Manipulate the market. Buy up “yes” on Jesus’ return to drive up the price of the derivative.
An expert explanation
It wasn’t just people on Twitter noting this; Rajiv Sethi, an economics professor at Barnard College, Columbia University, and the 2025-26 CASBS Fellow at Stanford University, said the same on his Substack, Imperfect Information.
“Notice that these price movements have nothing to do with the aggregation of information or the wisdom of crowds,” Sethi wrote. “Most traders understand that the likelihood of a second coming this year is precisely zero. They are trying to out-think each other, each confident that they are smarter and more sophisticated than the average market participant.”
To be clear, this is not the only derivative market on Polymarket. As of this writing, there are at least nine derivative markets. One is “Odds Trump acquires Greenland before 2027 hit _ by March 31.” Another asks, “2026 U.S. Senate Election: Democrats Flip Republicans by March 31.”
Again: I’m Mr. Agnostic over here. Offer these, don’t offer these, bet on these, don’t bet on these, I don’t care. But …
The truth is (not) out there
… Proponents of prediction markets herald them — and this is Polymarket founder and CEO Shayne Coplan speaking — as “global truth machines.” CFTC honcho Mike Selig just called them an “important check on our news media and information streams.”
That said, when you’re offering derivative markets, you’re risking the “truth.” You’re not acting as an “important check on our news media.” In fact, these derivative markets can very easily turn the “truth” into a funhouse mirror. You could go so far to say in these markets, there is no truth. Only manipulation.
And it’s not just on these smaller markets (the Jesus Christ market is small, not Jesus Himself, hold your emails, please). Sethi pointed this out in September 2024 when Polymarket offered a market on who would be ahead in the presidential market on a single given day.
The race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump — in the main market — was tight. Harris was around 47 cents, Trump 51 cents.
Then came the manipulation. From Sethi at the time: “What happened was this. A group of traders bet heavily on Harris and against Trump in an attempt to push her into the lead for a couple of hours. The sums involved were quite large, with one trader alone wagering about 2.5 million dollars. The goal was to ensure that the Harris contract would have the higher price for a majority of minutes during the three-hour period between noon and 3 p.m. EST on Friday, in order to profit from a derivative market that referenced prices in the primary market.”
There may be an element of “so what?” here. In other words, who cares what these traders are doing?
But when it comes to important stuff, like leader of the free world and midterm elections and such? Here’s Sethi again: “Optimism can feed on itself in politics, boosting morale, fundraising, volunteer effort, and turnout. … The manipulation and distortion of prices in such markets can have real and pernicious effects.”
This makes me not so agnostic on the derivative front. They’re just … bad.
And they’re not bad because they’re inherently bad. For those of us in the bubble, those of us who trade, who understand the mechanics of it all, who are interested parties, it’s a big nothingburger. We get it. We can see the noise masquerading as signal. We see the manipulation.
But to an outsider — or to someone stumbling onto X, or CNN, or Fox News and seeing the “odds” of Jesus returning this year doubling overnight, or that Harris has overtaken Trump — the derivatives create what basically amounts to a false truth. Dare I say — wait for it — fake news.
So the next time someone points to a prediction market as proof of anything, be it the odds of a war, an election outcome, or the Second Coming, we need to check and see if this is actually the true wisdom of the crowds — which is real — or just someone’s thumb on the scale.
