InGame will consult with Fanatics Betting & Gaming trader Ethan Useloff each week to look quickly back and then ahead on what trends are shaping the NFL betting season. Useloff specializes in live trading. He’s appeared in outlets including ESPN, Fortune, ABC News, Fox Sports, USA Today, CBS Sports, Yahoo Sports, and Pro Football Network.
The Cincinnati Bengals were 1-0 and a +2000 pick to win the Super Bowl early Sunday.
By late afternoon they were 2-0 after a comeback win at home against the Jacksonville Jaguars, but their championships odds had already begun limping into oblivion, just like, potentially, their season, and just like quarterback Joe Burrow in the second quarter.
ESPN was the first to report on Monday that the sixth-year quarterback will require surgery to repair a Grade III sprain, or “turf toe,” an injury of the ligaments around the joint of his left big toe. Grade III is the most severe. Burrow is expected to miss at least three months, meaning the best he can hope for is to be back under center with a few regular-season games remaining.
Burrow was hurt with 8:36 left in the second quarter when he was buried under a pile of players after being sacked by Jacksonville defensive end Arik Armstead.
The Bengals rallied to win, 31-27, behind backup quarterback Jake Browning, but fell to +5000 to win the championship.
- Pre-injury: +2000
- Sunday night movement: +2200 to +3500
- Since announcement of surgery: +5000
They’ve banked two wins they’ll very much need before a brutal upcoming stretch, especially with a defensive allowing the ninth most yards per game (363.5) so far.
“They’re not going to potentially be able to eke out these games the way they were before, because you have snap counts that are going to change, you have play calls that are going to change,” Useloff said. “Everything for that team changes when they don’t have their signal caller and their leader as the one with the ball in his hand 70, 75 times a game.
“So if I were a Bengals bettor, I would be a lot more bearish on their team than I was heading into yesterday.”
Popular prop bets look way worse
Burrow and his band of pass-catchers have long been popular prop bet targets, but bettors and dabblers alike will now face lesser prospects.
“Ja’Marr Chase is already 25-to-1 for Offensive Player of the Year when previously he was one of the favorites,” Useloff said. “He now is probably a very long shot in terms of realism to actually win that award. I think that his bets are going to take a big hit.
“Obviously, Joe Burrow is someone that everyone likes to back for passing yards and touchdowns for through the air. Jake Browning is not going to get the same support, and the Bengals are going to be a team that used to be one or has been one that folks like to bet on, and with Jake Browning under center, I don’t think they’re going to be nearly as popular, despite [playing in] a legal state like Ohio.”
Handicapping the Bengals’ upcoming schedule
Useloff on the Bengals’ chances in the near-term:
Week 3, at Vikings (1-1), Minnesota -4: “[The Vikings] will definitely be favored in that one. I think the [22-6 home loss to Atlanta on Sunday] hurts Minnesota in terms of really only putting up two field goals. But I will say I was impressed with their defense holding the Falcons to no points via touchdown until the end, in what was essentially garbage time. But I still think that the Minnesota offense is going to be able to run the ball against a very poor Bengals run defense.
“And then offensively, the Bengals, I do think they’re still going to be OK because they do have the right guys on the outside in Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr [Chase], [running back] Chase Brown, all those guys.
“But how productive can you be if you’re Chase Brown, if you know that Jake Browning has to push the ball down the field 45 times in a high-scoring game. Or 50 times?”
NOTE: Late Monday afternoon it was reported that Vikings starting quarterback J.J. McCarthy could miss multiple weeks because of an ankle injury. Carson Wentz is listed as QB2 for Minnesota.
Week 4, at Denver (1-1): “That’s a bad matchup for them, too, because you have strength on strength in terms of the Bengals offense and the Broncos defense. But the strength of the Bengals is now dampened by injury in addition to the fact that everyone is now being stretched thin.
“Ja’Marr Chase, the weight of the world is on his shoulders. If they can’t score 30 points a game, they’re going to be out of every single game against a competent offense.
“The Broncos, their defense didn’t show up as much as you’d like against Indianapolis [a 29-28 road loss], but their offense still was humming. Bo Nix had a really nice bounce-back game after that letdown performance in Week 1 against Tennessee. And you would expect in that game that they’re probably going to be favored just inside of touchdown, I think.”
Week 5, hosting Detroit (1-1): “I think every game we’re going to rattle off here, [the Bengals are] going to be the underdog for a while. They [already] weren’t this hotly ranked team. Folks know it’s going to be a close game if they’re able to win.”
Then there’s a trip to Lambeau Field to meet the Packers (2-0).
There is a very real possibility, Usehoff said, that Cincinnati won’t be a favorite again until Week 7 at Paycor Stadium against Pittsburgh. Maybe.
“I think the next one where maybe they potentially can be closer would be Pittsburgh, since that one’s at home,” he said. “I don’t see a spot in which they’re going to be able to comfortably win or maybe even win at all in the next month. And if you’re heading into a Thursday night quick turnaround against a tough-nosed Pittsburgh team … I think the Bengals will be favored because they’re at home, but is that a game that they will end up winning? I’m not sure.”
That said, the Bengals could still be in the hunt for a playoff spot with a few more wins before Burrow returns. Even if they’re, say, 6-8 through 14 games, they may still be alive with games against Miami, Arizona, and Cleveland to finish.
| Year | Injury | Outcome | |
| 2025 | Turf toe | Surgery, likely missing three months | |
| 2023 | Torn wrist ligaments | Season-ending surgery, missed seven games | |
| 2023 | Calf | Played through it | |
| 2020 | Torn ACL, MCL, PCL, partial meniscus | Season-ending surgery, missed six games |
The Bengals are 6-8 in the Burrow era without Burrow as the starter.
Browning or sizzling?
Browning is an NFL backup for a reason.
And put bluntly, “He is not Joe Burrow,” Useloff said.
But he’s not incompetent, either. The Washington product went 21-for-32 for 241 yards, two touchdowns, and three interceptions on Sunday. One of the picks was attributable to a receiver breaking off a route.
In Useloff’s backup-QB-against-the-spread calculations, Browning is a serviceable 5.5. Mitch Trubisky, Josh Allen’s backup in Buffalo, is the highest-impact backup ATS at 7.5.
“It’s closer in some ways because he’s experienced,” Useloff said of Browning. “It’s further because it’s Joe freaking Burrow and he’s really good. But Jake Browning is one of those backups I feel a lot more comfortable with him being the one under center because he has 60 starts [in college and the NFL] in the last [seven] years.”
Browning went 4-3 as the Bengals starter in 2023 during Burrow’s last protracted recovery, finishing with 12 touchdowns, seven interceptions, and a 98.4 quarterback rating.
