The Colorado Rockies have created a path to economic salvation.
Forget investing, buying the dip or selling platelets.
Fade the Rockies.
I’m just kidding, all those other things are much more personally — and in the last case, socially — responsible. Do not make betting against the Colorado Rockies every single day no matter who they’re playing an investment strategy.
It’s a bad idea. Even if they’re 11-50.
Even the Rockies have to win once in a while. (About 18% of the time.)
Also, sportsbooks would very much appreciate it if you don’t. This drip, drip, drip of paying out bettors is apparently annoying them as much this year as it did last year with the woeful Chicago White Sox, per an ESPN report.
So, in the name of science and to bring InGame readers a proof of theory and proof of our skin in the game, I embarked on a week of betting against the Rockies.
It’s a conflicting situation. I’m all for winning money and finally seeing some green-highlighted bets slips in my app. But dispelling this theory feels very responsible.
By total happenstance I tucked into the experiment during series against the Cubs and Mets.
I am a conservative bettor. I bet very small amounts. So while undertaking this project for the betterment of our collective human knowledge and in the spirit of responsible gambling — even as the Rockies are literally throwing free money off the top of tall buildings — I again bet very small amounts.
We’ll call them units because that sounds way cooler and hides the paltry denominations I was punching up on my app, which just so happens to be purple and black. Is that a good or bad omen?
Game 1, May 27:
Cubs, -325
Cubs 4, Rockies 3, 11 innings
Cheeky Rockies, trying to muck up the proceedings this quickly. Colorado had a 67% win probability, according to the egghead algorithms after Hunter Goodman’s single put runners on second and third with no outs in the 11th. They had a 62.4% chance when a groundout gave the Rockies a 3-2 lead.
That percentage went to zero when the Cubs scored twice in the bottom of the inning, winning it when Matt Shaw singled in the clincher.
Total return-on-investment meter: 31%
Game 2, May 28:
Cubs, -325
Cubs 2, Rockies 1
Thank goodness I wasn’t bothering to watch this. It would have been a very early hit to my ROI, but Pete Crow-Armstrong’s fourth-inning homer held up as the eventual winning run.
Total return-on-investment meter: 31%
Game 3, May 30:
Mets, -325
Mets 4, Rockies 2
Francisco Lindor went 3-for-4 and scored three times from the lead-off spot. It was beginning to feel easy, even with the Rockies keeping it close. Pity the point spread-betting bros.
Total return on investment meter: 31%
Game 4, May 31:
Mets -375
Mets 8, Rockies 2
New York scored four times in the first and Kodai Senga allowed just two runs and two hits in 6 ⅓. We like a nice romp.
Total return-on-investment meter: 30%
Game 5, June 1:
Mets, -400
Final score: Mets 5, Rockies 3
The Carson Palmquist vs. Clay Holmes starting pitching matchup would have heartened me if I’d bothered to look at it. In an otherwise close game, the Mets scored three runs in the fourth and held on as Pete Alonso, Juan Soto, and Francisco Lindor homered.
Total return-on-investment meter: 29%
Game 6, June 2:
Marlins, -200
Final score: Rockies 6, Marlins 4
Now I was paying attention and this was perhaps the most ridiculously lopsided starting pitcher matchup of the week with Max Meyer going for Miami. I didn’t get this wrong. The Marlins got this wrong. And Hunter Goodman hitting two homers for the Rockies was very wrong of him.
The ROI tanks.
But, the Rockies, now 10-50, had only won consecutive games once this season and not since the end of April. A win on Tuesday secured a profit.
Total return-on-investment meter: 7.5%
Game 7, June 3:
Marlins, -180
Final score: Rockies 3, Marlins 2
Sandy Alcantara on the mound for the Marlins. Another starter with a 6+ ERA on the mound for Colorado. This seemed like easy money … a couple years ago. Alcantara, not the same flavor of ace since Tommy John surgery, entered 2-7 with an 8.47 ERA. It was no surprise that these were the most favorable odds we’d gotten on the opponent this week. More discerning faders might have passed on this one, but that wasn’t our plan.
And … the Rockies won consecutive games for just the second time this season.
Total return-on-investment meter: -7.8%
What have we learned?
Went 5-2 and lost money. Sure, I could have spent more in the more lopsided matches, but … rules.
Conclusion: Sports is a horrible waste of time and sports betting is a horrible waste of money. This little odyssey has left me more disillusioned with both than before. (Kidding!)
But then again … the Rockies are so due for another loss. They haven’t won three in a row all this year. Is it chasing — more pathetically, chasing with the Rockies — if the stats very much suggest the next fade will hit?
And on the hill for Colorado on Wednesday: Kyle Freeland (0-8, 5.72 ERA).
Good thing this is for science.
