I may not be a Catholic, but I’m a Jew from north Jersey, so really, we’re just splitting hairs here. Mother-dominated households and a ton of guilt are the main ingredients in both stews, and so it’s with this knowledge that I feel I can safely say this: I enjoy the conclave.
It’s really pretty cool, with all the cardinals meeting behind closed doors, politicking going on, everyone watching for the puff of smoke. It’s — not sure I have a better word for this — cool.
Of course — of course! — with the uncertainty comes something a little less than religious, namely gambling.
Now while there is plenty of fretting going on over the fact you can bet — er, buy an event contract — on who the next Pope will be over at Kalshi, know this: People have been betting on the outcome of the conclave since at least the 15th century. This is documented, bruh.
And not only could people bet on who the next Pope would be, bettors back in the 16th century could also bet on when the conclave would end.
Kalshi has that as well. Along with which continent the new Pope will be from, how many votes it will take, and what the new Pope’s name will be.
To be clear, Pope Gregory XIV banned the betting on papal elections in 1591, with the penalty being excommunication, though the reforms of Pope Benedict XV in 1918 pretty much did away with that. So that’s nice.
But all this talk about betting on the conclave — and offshores are having quite a time with it, along with legal books outside of the United States — got me thinking: How far back do we have to go to find examples of betting on the outcomes of religious events?
And the answer, I found, is very far back. We’re talking the Torah. Old Testament. Long time ago.
In fact, recently discovered scrolls detail numerous wagers — and notations! — handled by the bookmakers of the day, led by DraftPharaohs, ProphetPlay, and Pre-Caesars.
Here are some highlights …
David v. Goliath
David closed as a massive +3500 underdog against Goliath, with the line moving down from an initial +5000.
“The value hounds are absolutely pouncing on this number,” wrote a trader at ProphetPlay.
The most active prop market was “method of victory,” with Goliath by crushing (-800) drawing heavy action. David by slingshot to the forehead was available at a juicy 30-to-1, with some suspicious betting patterns emerging from the Bethlehem area.
Creation
When the Almighty was crafting existence, the “day of rest” market saw wild swings. Wednesday opened as the +200 favorite based on insider knowledge of the Creator’s previous aspirations to be a doctor (orthopedist, to be exact), and so the idea was He would keep Wednesdays free for golf. But “… sacred day markets are always volatile,” explained a DraftPharaohs analyst at the time. “Friday drew huge late money from some known Sabbath sharps, but our T&Cs are crystal clear — partial days don’t count toward the total. So if He calls it a day post-lunch Friday, the house wins.”
The “method of creating woman” market had “Adam’s rib” as the -150 favorite after early line movement.
“If it’s ‘rib’ we book a small loss, but ‘femur’ would be a windfall,” one trader wrote.
Exodus
The “total plagues before Pharaoh releases the Jews” market opened at a modest 7.5 before sharp action hammered it all the way to 9.5.
“We’re getting middled to death,” lamented a Pre-Caesars trader. “We’re already at 8 with these locusts everywhere. The sharps are now pounding the under, so we need at least two more plagues to avoid disaster.”
The exotic markets saw significant action for “next plague,” with “darkness” listed at +300 and the longshot “death of firstborn son” available at +3000. “Nobody’s touching that firstborn prop,” noted one DraftPharaohs trader. “Too grim, even for our clientele.”
Live betting during the Red Sea crossing created record handle. Moses was heavily favored to part the waters at -750, but bargain-hunters found him at +500 to accomplish it on his first attempt.
The books also took a bath on “Will the Jews kvetch about the Exodus?” That was a yes/no market, with “Yes” opening at -110. It closed at -10000000.
“Half the people were complaining it’s too hot, the other half were complaining it’s too cold,” a trader remarked after they closed the market.
The Great Flood
Noah opened as a +5000 longshot to successfully gather two of every animal, with sharp bettors focusing on the logistics.
“It’s all about the margin of error,” explained a veteran handicapper. “The lions, elephants, bears — those are locks. But the market isn’t pricing in the small stuff properly. We’ve got Noah at +10000 to successfully identify and contain two mosquitoes without accidentally swatting one.”
The “total rainfall in cubits above sea level” opened at 14.5 and was quickly bet up to 29.5 as meteorological indicators worsened. The “days of continuous rainfall” total saw the over 39.5 drawing heavy action from certain prophetic circles. “We’ve got some suspicious betting patterns from a group of ark builders,” noted a concerned trader.
Jonah
Jonah was +2200 to survive three days inside the whale. “We’re seeing smart money on the ‘under 2.5 days’ market,” said a trader at ProphetPlay. “The stomach acid alone should finish him off by day two, but there’s been some late divine intervention movement.”
The “method of exit” market was particularly volatile. “Natural means” (being digested) opened as the -300 favorite, while “regurgitation” was available at +250. “Divine rescue” was the longshot at +1500, though one big bettor — a whale, if you will — reportedly placed a significant wager on this outcome.
