DraftKings Predictions, the recently launched prediction market app from one of the leaders in regulated digital gaming in the United States, looks and plays like it’s part of a longer-term marketing strategy. With good reason.
As one of the two dominant sports betting brands in the U.S. — consuming as much as 80% of the legal market in tandem with FanDuel — DraftKings found itself compelled to join the prediction market boom and attempt to wrestle back some of the gambling investing dollars flowing to Kalshi and Robinhood.
And with DraftKings Predictions sports event contracts only available in states where the company isn’t a licensed sportsbook — like California and Texas — this was a chance to expand brand recognition (assuming the locals weren’t already using the company’s daily fantasy sports app) and rake in some email addresses in case those jurisdictions ever legalize.
This is where DraftKings Predictions feels less like a high-minded foray into an unknown world, and more like a placeholder in case this all comes crashing down, allowing the company to go back to the other stuff. Because that’s what it is. CEO Jason Robins has said as much.
Using the DK Predictions app
The DraftKings mission is best illustrated in the app user interface, which, as expected, is designed in a green-and-black motif that’s instantly reminiscent of the brand. While other prediction markets present the outcomes of games, pop culture events, or economic activity with dollar values — in the case of sports, with the “Yes” purchase price displayed — DraftKings Predictions uses odds. It’s here that the app feels more like a training tool for potential future sportsbook customers than a new option for the trader/bettor types that have spiked sports volumes at Kalshi.
For example …
On Thursday morning at DraftKings Predictions, this was the main page, and users’ introduction to the Miami-Ole Miss College Football Playoff game:
Odds. Not prices.
Tapping Ole Miss opened a new screen with a more typical prediction market user experience, including a button that allows users to toggle between the “Yes” and “No” prices. The odds remain atop the screen, however, and a quick glance to the payout section finally reveals the share prices. A nice drop-down allows users to buy in terms of dollars or desired shares, revealing fees and the total cost of the wager. A quick slide-right of the finger completes the trade.
Missing from the process, however, are the typical displays of market volume, price movements over given periods of time, and the ability to enter limit orders, which tenured prediction market devotees and traders are likely to expect and use as part of their strategy.
In fairness, other sportsbook companies foraying to prediction markets also have yet to offer limit orders, where speculators enter a specified price at which they are willing to purchase or sell shares. DraftKings told InGame on Thursday that it plans to offer limit orders in the future.
DK Predictions as compared to sportsbook
Meanwhile, at DraftKings Sportsbook on Thursday, Miami was -170 on the moneyline with Ole Miss at +142.
While the Miami price on the prediction market was, at that moment, better than at the sportsbook, DraftKings Predictions users have frequently been agitated by pricing, and by the fact that the company’s platform partner, CME Group, is currently the lone market maker on the site. This, in essence, makes the platform just like a sportsbook, instead of a forum where players hunt for an edge against their peers instead of against the house.
DraftKings said as of its Dec. 19 debut in 38 states — 17 with sports — that it would eventually expand to connect multiple exchanges, eliminating a single-source market-maker.
Onboarding fairly smooth, but crashes follow
Downloading the app from the Google or Apple store is quick and relatively seamless, and the registration isn’t cumbersome, especially if a user has sportsbook or DFS accounts with DraftKings. New customers are quickly informed that their digital wallets are not shareable with other DraftKings apps.
Funding is as little as a two-minute process, and through the Plaid payments app, bank accounts and debit cards could be used for funding, with a series of two-factor identification steps. For us, however, the app immediately locked at what was supposed to be the completion of the process — but after closing it and reopening, the funds were there.
It was not the last crash of the session, however, which has created another source of frustration. Ultimately, that may prove one reason that players don’t hang around long.
Then again, it doesn’t seem like DraftKings wants them to have to stay there forever, anyway.
