NFL Lookahead: MVP Odds About To Flip?

InGame will consult with Fanatics Betting & Gaming trader Ethan Useloff each week to look quickly back and then ahead on what trends are shaping the NFL betting season. Useloff specializes in live trading. He’s appeared in outlets including ESPN, Fortune, ABC News, Fox Sports, USA Today, CBS Sports, Yahoo Sports, and Pro Football Network.

New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye could chase down Los Angeles Rams counterpart Matthew Stafford as at least the co-favorite in the National Football League Most Valuable Player betting market by the end of his Monday Night Football matchup with the New York Giants.

Stafford, a -225 pick last week at Fanatics, and -350 on Sunday morning, took a tumble in the opinion of bettors after his first pedestrian effort of the season — 18-for-28, 243 yards, two touchdowns, two interceptions (one returned for a touchdown) and a lost fumble — in a 31-28 loss to Carolina. As of Monday, Stafford remained the favorite, but at +105.

Maye, who was +200 last week, enters MNF as the second pick, at +125, as he faces the 2-10 Giants. The AFC East-leading Patriots (10-2) are a 7-point favorite and in position to polish off a seemingly rollable opponent, something the Rams failed to do on Sunday as 10.5-point favorites. Maye has passed for more than 270 yards in three consecutive games, and rushed for 20-plus in three of his last five.

“There’s a very good chance at the end of the night that Drake Maye is the MVP favorite because there’s a lot of recency bias,” Useloff said.

That, Useloff said, may make Stafford a value grab. The reason: Add the stats.

Currently, Stafford has 32 touchdowns, four interceptions, and 3,073 passing yards in 12 games.

Maye has 21 touchdowns, six interceptions, and 3,130 passing yards in 12 games.

“When you’re looking at the difference, Drake Maye has two more interceptions and Matt Stafford has 11 more touchdowns. I think that’s going to be the difference,” Useloff said. “If I were a bettor, I would be backing Stafford at that price knowing that those counting numbers are way different.

“But there’s going to be a lot of media darling bias for Drake Maye. I also think that the Broncos and Patriots vying for the no. 1 seed in the AFC is going to go a long way. But if you look at it, too, right now the Patriots are touchdown favorites at home against the Giants. That’s also baked into that price where bettors are expecting Drake Maye to win that game tonight in a somewhat resounding fashion. And if that’s the case, he probably will become either co-favorite or favorite in the MVP race.”

Bear market for the NFC’s No. 1

The Chicago Bears are 9-3, have won nine of 10, and lead not only the NFC North, but the conference in terms of provisional seeding. Yet they’re 6.5-point underdogs heading into a massive game against Green Bay on Sunday at Lambeau Field.

The Bears’ strength of remaining schedule already had bettors feeling mid about these aspiring new Monsters of the Midway. As of Monday, they were a +1500 pick to hold that coveted top spot at the end of the regular season. Interestingly, NFL.com’s “playoff picture” assesses Chicago’s chances to even make the playoffs at just 76%, which is well lower than every other team currently holding an NFC berth.

“Their remaining schedule is really, really difficult,” Useloff said. “They’ll play the Packers twice, the Niners, the Lions, and the Browns. There’s probably only one easy win, and even that easy win, that Cleveland defense is really tough to go against. I think it’s tough to say what they are. I also think that because they’re a newer team in terms of the construction of their players and their leadership at the top with [head coach] Ben Johnson, it’s tough to fully identify what they are.

“But playing that Packers team twice and San Fran and Detroit, that’s a really tough stretch. Furthermore, the reason why you see that 76 percent, the seventh seed right now is half a game behind them, in the Niners. It’s such a tightly contested NFC that if you have an easier strength of schedule, you have such an advantage.”

Is the NFC South really in play?

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers rolled into Week 9 at 6-2, running off with the NFC South with a two-game lead, as the only team with a winning record, and helmed by an emerging MVP candidate in quarterback Baker Mayfield.

Rolling into Week 14, the Bucs are 7-5, lead Carolina by just a half game, with a quarterback that had shambled statistically even before injuring his left, non-throwing shoulder last week.

Are the Panthers actually in this?

“That Panthers win over the Rams, I think that’s a huge statement win for them. It further clouds the ability to identify what the Panthers are,” Useloff said. “I think we know what the Rams are, in terms of being a very, very sound football team. But this Panthers team is incredibly up and down. They now have gone win, loss, win, loss, win, loss, win in the last seven games. And if you look at the opponents they won and lost against, there are some questionable ones, including a loss to New Orleans, wins against now the Rams, the Packers. So they’re a really tough team to identify.

“I find that NFC South to be absolutely fascinating, with the Panthers being one of the more polarizing teams in the league.”