The U.S. sports betting world moves quickly and unpredictably in 2025. In order to properly take stock of it all, we offer InGame’s “EndGame,” an end-of-week compilation of the top storylines, some overlooked items, and all the other news bits from this past week that we found interesting.
Did Polymarket drop US launch date hint?
Polymarket may have dropped a hint last week about its U.S. relaunch date as it submitted documents related to welcome bonuses to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The prediction exchange currently does not accept U.S.-based customers, though earlier this month chief executive Shayne Coplan said it had the “green light” to reenter the market following the acquisition of QCEX — an exchange registered with the CFTC — in July.
On Sept. 11, Polymarket submitted rules to the CFTC for a “deposit incentive program” and a “Refer-A-Friend incentive program.” The first would allow for first-time deposits to be matched via bonus credits, while the second would allow a similar bonus for those who refer a friend to sign up for an account.
The filings did not specify how large the rewards would be, though the deposit incentive program rules list an example of a deposit match capped at $100 and the referral program gives an example of a $10-per-referral bonus.
The programs are subject to a 10-business-day review period, which would end Sept. 25. While Polymarket may be able to launch before that date, it might want to have incentive programs in place first in order to attract as many day-one customers as possible.
Polymarket’s U.S. relaunch timing likely also depends on its completion of other changes from its current non-U.S. offering. It is widely believed that its U.S. exchange would have to be walled off from the global exchange, due to a requirement that CFTC-registered exchanges perform know-your-customer checks on all exchange members. Polymarket will also need to self-certify markets that it wants to list.
Here’s the timeline in MO from now to launch
With the application deadline in Missouri passed, the next deadline for potential sports betting operators is to submit their internal controls to the Missouri Gaming Commission (MGC) by Sept. 26. Bet365, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, Circa Sports, DraftKings, Fanatics Betting & Gaming, FanDuel, Penn Entertainment (ESPN Bet), theScore, and Underdog have all submitted applications. Circa and DraftKings were awarded stand-alone mobile licenses Aug. 19.
The MGC has two days of meetings planned next Wednesday and Thursday. The agenda for those meetings will post Monday. According to the MGC website, the commission has an eye toward awarding temporary licenses on Oct. 22. Approved sportsbooks will be able to begin signing up consumers at midnight Nov. 17.
Launch is set for Dec. 1. That date is a Monday, and the first NFL game that those in Missouri will be able to bet on will the Monday Football Game between the New York Giants and New England Patriots. The Kansas City Chiefs’ first game after launch will be on Sunday night against the Houston Texans on Dec. 7.
When all is said and done, it will have been just about 13 months from legalization to launch. Missouri voters approved sports betting on the Nov. 5, 2024 ballot, though results were not official until Dec. 5, 2024. After ballots were counted, it was revealed that Amendment 2 won by .05%, according to the Missouri secretary of state’s (SOS) office. The margin was 2,961 votes, and 2,954,343 ballots were cast.
Jill R. Dorson
Robinhood asks for injunction in MA lawsuit
Robinhood is asking for a preliminary injunction in its lawsuit against the state of Massachusetts.
Robinhood-injunctionThe stock trading app sued the state Monday after Massachusetts Attorney General Andrea Joy Campbell sued Kalshi in state court last Friday.
Robinhood, which offers its users access to Kalshi contracts, is not a defendant in the Kalshi lawsuit, but it said “there is a real and imminent threat” that it will be the subject of a similar suit.
Kalshi is attempting to have Campbell’s lawsuit moved to federal court, but Robinhood is now pushing for an injunction to be issued before Kalshi’s jurisdiction question is settled.
Robinhood on Thursday started offering access to Kalshi’s NFL game total and point spread markets.
The stock trading app offered Kalshi’s NFL and college football markets before the start of the season but initially only offered markets on game winners.
Succession settled, Fox eyes FanDuel option
The resolution of the Murdoch family’s succession drama should make it easier for media giant Fox to exercise its option to buy an 18.6% stake in FanDuel, said Fox executive chairman Lachlan Murdoch, speaking at the Goldman Sachs Communacopia + Technology Conference on Sept. 10.
In November 2022, a court ruled that Fox can buy the 18.6% stake in FanDuel from its parent company Flutter Entertainment for $4.5 billion, with this price rising by 5% annually. It hit $5.2 billion this year.
Murdoch said analysts’ valuations of FanDuel suggest that a 5% stake in the U.S. market leader is worth around $8.3 billion, meaning that exercising the option is worth $3.1 billion to Fox.
However, before it can exercise the option, Fox needs to acquire licenses in states where FanDuel operates. All regulated sports betting states require shareholders whose ownership exceeds a certain threshold — usually either 5% or 10% — to get licenses.
Murdoch said Fox is in the early stages of getting those licenses but added that the settlement of the dispute between Rupert Murdoch’s children over who will take over the family business has made licensing easier. Under an agreement reached earlier this month, Lachlan Murdoch will control a new trust that owns the Murdoch media empire, including Fox. Siblings Elisabeth Murdoch, James Murdoch, and Prudence MacLeod will set their stakes in Fox and News Corp to Lachlan.
“We’ve already engaged with 26 states for licensing,” Lachlan Murdoch said. “That process is at its initial stages. It can be complicated, but I have to say, and pursuant to your previous question, the resolution of the control of the company through the family trust actually will make that licensing process much more simple.”
CFTC withdraws in-house trading rules
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has withdrawn proposed rules that would have introduced “governance and fitness requirements” and “conflict of interest standards” for exchanges’ in-house trading arms.
The rules would have applied to companies that trade on their own exchanges, such as Kalshi, which has an in-house market-making division named Kalshi Trading.
Kalshi says Kalshi Trading is “subject to strict informational barriers that prevent any non-public exchange information from being shared.”
DraftKings got walloped in NFL Week 1
The Buffalo Bills cost DraftKings a passel of cash in Week 1 of the NFL season. CEO Jason Robins, appearing at a Citizens JMP investor meeting in Boston, said that Buffalo’s 41-40 comeback win against the Baltimore Ravens led to the single-worst game outcome ever for the company.
Numerous player props hit and scores of bettors grabbed the plus-money Bills moneyline when they were down 15 points in the third quarter.
Brant James
Wagering illegal in TX but options abound
Sports betting isn’t legal in Texas, but that doesn’t mean it’s not happening. Per a Monday Texas Tribune story, offshore, daily fantasy, and prediction market sites all allow Texans to wager but without consumer protections for the most part. Lt. Governor and Senate President Dan Patrick remains staunchly opposed to legal betting, and in early September announced he will seek another four years in office.
The situation in Texas won’t change for at least another 16 months, as the state legislature is only in session during odd-numbered years. And if Patrick wins re-election, the expectation is that he will continue to refuse to consider legal sports betting unless a Republican majority gets behind it.
The net result is that lots of non-state regulated options exist, and no one in power in Texas is addressing that situation.
Some legal betting stakeholders continue to rail against prediction markets, saying they lack consumer protections or the costs associated with being state-regulated. But prediction markets aren’t technically illegal; rather, they are regulated at the federal level. Fantasy sports contests, however, operate in a gray area in Texas — they are not explicitly legal or illegal — though the state attorney general in 2016 offered the opinion that he believes DFS is illegal under state law.
“You have the state’s highest law enforcement body saying that fantasy sports is illegal, but apparently there’s been actually no apparent enforcement that I’m aware of out of Texas,” UNLV professor and gaming lawyer Gregory Gemignani told the Texas Tribune. “And you know, if you’re not going to enforce the laws, then people are going to ignore them.”
Jill R. Dorson
Check it out …
NBA Commissioner Adam Silver said the league’s issues with gambling “have been predictable” and called again for a federal sports betting framework at the Front Office Sports Tuned In summit in New York on Tuesday. Check out all of his comments here.
Check it out … part 2
Steve Ruddock of the Straight to the Point newsletter enters “rant mode” on prediction markets:
“I’m not fed up with the existence of prediction markets, or even their entry into sports betting,” he writes. “I’m fed up with the double-speak and self-assured statements made because their financial future requires these statements to be true.
“Again, if the courts and the CFTC decide that prediction markets can offer sports contracts, I have no issue with it. But I do have a problem with Kalshi et al. pretending there is nothing to debate, hiding behind a recently created magical force field that deflects legitimate criticisms and questions. They think they’re better and smarter than everyone else, and don’t mind telling you so.”
Odds and ends
- Matt Holt, former CEO of integrity provider IC360, will take on the same role at Gaming Compliance International, iGB reported Tuesday.
- Speaking of personnel moves, Underdog announced two C-suite hires Tuesday. Rishi Garg, previously partner at venture capital firm The Mayfield Fund, is Underdog’s new chief financial officer, while Kimberly Pointer Corbett, previously of Warner Bros. Games, is chief marketing officer
- “Imagine the uproar if DraftKings did this” of the week: Kalshi launches college clubs:
- Reminder to not trust every bet slip you see on social media:
- FanDuel announced a new sports betting and iCasino partnership with Delaware North’s Mardi Gras Casino & Resort in Cross Lanes, West Virginia. The casino’s previous online partner, WynnBet, is in the process of shutting down operations in the United States. FanDuel will continue its access deal with Greenbrier Resort.
- Daily fantasy/sportsbook/social casino brand Betr has signed NBA player Lonzo Ball and his brother, basketball player and rapper LiAngelo Ball, to create a podcast for its media network. Betr was co-founded by influencer/boxer Jake Paul.
ICYMI on InGame
Massachusetts Puts Kalshi On The Defensive, Sues In State Court
Marketer: Nimbleness A Crucial Trait In Modern Sports Betting Landscape
In A Prediction Market Gold Rush, Investors Bet On ‘Shovels’
Consultant: Don’t Worry, Prediction Markets, Unregulateds Will ‘Collapse’ On Themselves
Rebuck: ‘Evil’ Needs Unity To Be Overcome, Implores Action On Prediction Markets
Arizona Warns Regulated Operators, Via Letter, Against Offering Prediction Markets
HG Vora’s Gambling History Raises Questions On Regulatory Track Record
Same Tax, Different Pain: How Trump’s Rule Devastates Some Gamblers, Spares Others
White House Reportedly Eyes New CFTC Chair Options Amid Stalled Quintenz Nomination
NFL Lookahead: Bengals Tripped Up In Victory, Will Be Underdogs For A While
