Many traders who may have hoped to use Kalshi to wager on the new pope on Thursday were unable to do so, as the site experienced outages in the critical moments before Robert Prevost’s papacy was announced.
The site experienced outages that began close to the time white smoke emerged from the Sistine Chapel, before normal activity resumed soon after Prevost, the first ever pope from America, was selected. Though the cause of the interruption was not confirmed, a surge in traffic from customers interested in the papal conclave market would appear to be a possible culprit.
While some customers were still able to access the site and get positions down, the site likely missed out on a surge of last-minute stakes from customers who knew an announcement was imminent.
In total, $10.6 million was staked on the market identifying the next pope, with more on related markets such as the pontiff’s continent of birth. Close to $1 million of that was staked in the last hour of the market being active.
A late bet on Prevost could have been a lucrative one. His odds of being selected hovered around the 1% mark until immediately before he emerged from St. Peter’s balcony.
Cardinal Pietro Parolin — the Vatican’s secretary of state — had been the favorite at Kalshi, with odds surging as high as 78% soon before Prevost was announced. Other leading candidates according to prediction markets included Luis Antonio Tagle and Matteo Zuppi.
A Kalshi representative did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
