Kalshi has self-certified to list a range of new player prop markets, from passing touchdowns to punting yards, alongside a pre-built parlay for elections.
The prediction market submitted a document to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) Monday self-certifying a new market called “FOOTBALLPLAYERSTAT.”
Self-certification is a process by which a registered exchange can tell the CFTC that it plans to list a new market. If the CFTC does not take action before the time that the exchange says it will list the market, it is assumed to be allowed. Self-certification is how Kalshi has listed all of its sports markets.
footballplayerstatSelf-certified markets often have a template question, and the exchange is then able to plug in different specifics to list multiple similar markets. In this case, the template question is, “Will <player> have <above/below/between/exactly/at least> <count> <statistic> in <time period> of <game>?”
The statistics in question include passing, rushing, and receiving yards, return yardage, yards from scrimmage, sacks, and interceptions. Passing touchdowns, which had not been available under Kalshi’s previous player touchdown market, are also now available under the new market, and traders can also bet on players to score a specific type of touchdown (for example rushing or receiving) rather than the player scoring a touchdown of any kind.
Alongside those statistics — which are a common subject of sportsbook player prop bets — are some less frequently bet-on stats, such as punt yardage and passes defensed.
Kalshi says it plans to list these markets after the close of business on Tuesday. However, it does not always put up new markets at the time that it says in its self-certification notices.
The rules note that the new market could apply to both college and pro football, and the list of parties who are not allowed to trade on the market includes people associated with both college football and the NFL. However, in August, a Kalshi spokesperson told InGame that the prediction market does not have “immediate plans” to offer college player props.
Controversy over inactive player rules
As with previous Kalshi player prop markets, the rules attached to the filing note that, “A player must take at least one snap (offensive, defensive, or special teams). If a player is active but does not participate in any plays, all Contracts settle to the last fair market price before the start of play.”
This settlement rule has caused controversy among some bettors, particularly when markets have stayed up long after a player was ruled out.
During the NFL’s Week 1, Bears running back Roschon Johnson was a late scratch. When his absence was announced, Kalshi kept up the market on Johnson scoring a touchdown. Some traders bet that he would not score, as there was no way that he could do so, driving the price of his scoring down.
However, the bet was settled, as the rules outlined, at what was considered fair market price before his inactivity was announced, rather than as a “no.” Kalshi determined this price to be 19 cents.
This meant that any trader who bet against Johnson scoring a touchdown when the price for him doing so was 18 cents or less lost money on a bet that they may have believed to be a guaranteed win.
Kalshi lists election parlay
Late Friday, Kalshi also self-certified a pre-built election parlay market. The new market is titled “MULTIELECTION,” and the template question for the market is “Will <candidates/parties/options> win <elections>?”
The filing says, “The Payout Criterion for the Contract encompasses the Expiration Values where ALL specified <candidates/parties/options> have won their respective <elections>. Every single pairing must be satisfied for the Contract to resolve to Yes.”
Kalshi said it would list the contracts after the close of business Monday, but it has not done so yet.
Kalshi self-certified a football parlay market on Sept. 2, just before the start of the NFL season, and launched its first parlay bet for the season opener. However, after that initial launch it has been slow in offering more multi-leg bets. As of press time Tuesday, no parlays were available on Kalshi for Week 3 NFL games.
