If you’re looking to bet NFL Week 1 moneylines right now, I’ve got news for you: Stay away from Kalshi.
Yes, Kalshi made a minor splash in the sports gambling — sorry, prediction market — world last week when it posted it’s Week 1 NFL action, but a quick look at the odds its offering, compared to odds at traditional regulated sportsbooks, shows a discrepancy big enough for Derrick Henry to run through — at least for the moment.
For starters, let’s look at the opening-night game, where the Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles play host to the Dallas Cowboys.
Right now, you can get the Cowboys for +270 at ESPN Bet, or you can buy a contract on Dallas at Kalshi for 27 cents. Some quick odds calculator math shows the difference. A $100 bet on the ‘Boys pays out $370 at ESPN BET, while $100 in contracts at Kalshi would pay out $352.
Flip the script, and the Eagles at 75 cents on Kalshi would pay out $131 on a $100 worth of contracts, while a bet on the Birds at -310 at bet365 would pay the winner a dollar (and change) more.
Looking at the Miami-Indy game — a game predicted to be much closer — yields similar results.
A $100 Kalshi contract on the Colts at 52 cents would pay out $186 should Indianapolis win, while the same bet would pay out a shade less than $191 at -110 odds at BetMGM.
Take the Dolphins — 50-cent contracts at Kalshi — and your $100 would settle at $193. Take the Dolphins at even odds over at DraftKings, payout is $200 on a $100 wager.
And on it goes.
The week’s biggest favorite is the Denver Broncos at home against the Tennessee Titans. A $100 wager at -350 at FanDuel would pay out $128.57. At Kalshi, a $100 contract would net you $127. On the Titans side, Kalshi would pay $380 on $100 worth of contracts, while Caesars would be paying out $400 on the Titans at +300.
To butcher Alec Baldwin’s famous quote from Glengarry Glen Ross, always be line shopping.
A few notes
Of course, all of the above comes with a few caveats.
For starters, we are very early in the game, pun intended. Odds for these games are going to change in the [checks notes] three months until kickoff, and they might very well tip in Kalshi’s favor. For instance, Thursday night’s NBA Finals game between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers shows just that.
At the time of this writing, the Thunder were paying $124 on $100 worth of contracts at Kalshi, whereas the best sportsbook wager was -410 at FanDuel, paying out roughly the same, though most books were at -425, making Kalshi the winner there. On the other side, $100 on the Pacers would pay $431 at Kalshi, while a bet on Indy at +320 at DraftKings would only pay $420.
Secondly, the Kalshi NFL markets aren’t exactly bursting at the seams thus far. In the week since they posted the contracts, a not-quite whopping $6,042 worth of action has been placed on Week 1 contracts. (DraftKings, FanDuel, and every other legal sportsbook does not offer journalists, or anyone, access to handle numbers by sport.)
Thirdly, once someone buys a Kalshi contract, they can sell it (assuming a buyer on the other side, which is a generally safe assumption). Sometimes you can cash out early at sportsbooks. Sometimes you can’t. Such a mystery.
Fourthly, if that’s even a word, sportsbooks might not be as worried — at least not yet — about Kalshi and the NFL. After all, moneylines aren’t exactly the most favorite way bettors engage with the NFL. While there are no hard-and-fast numbers, estimates from around the web and the world of AI put moneyline action somewhere between 10-15% of NFL handle.
Fifthly — and score one for Kalshi here — their markets are available in all 50 states, unlike legal sportsbooks. And they’ve also beat fellow prediction market/exchanges such as Sporttrade, ProphetX, and NoVig to the NFL Week 1 contract starting line.
All of that to say this: Are you ready for some football?
