Morning Consult Poll: Prediction Markets Are Gambling, Should Be States’ Purview

As litigation and legislation mount against prediction markets, a new poll by Morning Consult suggests that Americans feel strongly that sports event contracts need to be better regulated to prevent gambling harm and benefit state taxing authorities.

The findings, which were commissioned by the decidedly anti-sports event contract Gambling Is Not Investing coalition, also unearthed some interesting insights into how all forms of sports gambling are viewed in the United States. Morning Consult polled 15,029 U.S. adults from March 17-22 for the report, which has a stated margin of error of +/- 1%. 

Key findings, according to Morning Consult:

• 81% of those polled believe that sports event contracts constitute gambling.
• 81% think that prediction markets should be regulated and taxed at the state level.
• 77% are concerned that prediction markets that allow 18-year-olds to play “could” increase problem gambling in that demographic.
• 73% believe that “describing sports bets as ’event contracts,’ ’swaps’ or ’futures’” complicates understanding the financial risk involved, particularly for younger bettors.
• 70% equate the term “investing” with “gambling,” in terms of buying sports event contracts.
• 70% were “somewhat” or “very” concerned about insider trading on prediction markets.
• 56% believed, however, that wagering at a sportsbook and a prediction market carried “about the same” risk.

Said coalition Executive Director Mick Mulvaney: “This polling confirms that unabated sports gambling on prediction markets is a growing concern across America. Prediction markets are trying to disguise their sports betting products as a financial investment, misleading Americans and dodging consumer safeguards like age requirements.”

Polled group: Many don’t gamble, invest

Though the respondent group had strong opinions about prediction markets, the Morning Consult poll reported that the vast majority of those surveyed did not identify as sports bettors. Seventy-three percent said they had not placed a bet either at a sportsbook or on an app in the past year. The same percentage had not played daily fantasy sports.

Eighty-three percent claimed to have never purchased a prediction market contract, with just 2% saying they had done so “weekly or more often.” Sixty-five percent stated they had never traded stocks or other financial products.  

Casino games (22%) and playing the lottery (21%) were the only forms of gambling that respondents said they had partaken in “once or twice” in the past 12 months.

Of the respondents, 53% were female. The 18-to-34 demographic represented 26% of those polled. Sixty percent had no college degree and there was no discernible difference in political party affiliation.