InGame is consulting with Fanatics Betting & Gaming trader Ethan Useloff each week to look quickly back and then ahead on what trends are shaping the NFL betting season. Useloff specializes in live trading. He’s appeared in outlets including ESPN, Fortune, ABC News, Fox Sports, USA Today, CBS Sports, Yahoo Sports, and Pro Football Network.
You didn’t get it wrong. They got it wrong. They ruined everything.
Ashton Jeanty absolutely was supposed to be the NFL’s top rookie after an electric college football career at Boise State and being selected sixth overall by the Raiders.
The Chiefs were going to go deep again after winning two of the last three Super Bowls.
Joe Burrow was absolutely going to stay healthy and not set himself up another bid for the Comeback Player of the Year Award, while the Bengals were going to be great, despite all that Trey Hendrickson preseason static.
The top five players by bet count for MVP at Fanatics this preseason was comprised of Burrow and fellow quarterbacks Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, Jalen Hurts (the only one who hasn’t gotten hurt), and Patrick Mahomes.
Then they all ruined it.
Make no mistake, the betting public brought some of this misery on itself. Swayed by the news of Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford’s preseason epidurals and skipping out on training camp because of a back ailment, Los Angeles was one of the top five bet teams at Fanatics to not make the playoffs. Not only have they already qualified but are challenging for the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
The season’s not over, but the proverbial die has been cast on this disappointing lot. InGame spoke with Useloff about the players and teams that disappointed bettors most.
Washington Commanders
USELOFF: Obviously, they had these lofty expectations, making it to the NFC championship game last year. They invested during the offseason in a lot of pieces that were ready to win now, and they unfortunately have not been able to do that with a record of 4-11. Daniels has not played enough games to impact their team, frankly.
They got to 3-2 and then they lost eight straight after that, which is really almost unfathomable.
Kansas City Chiefs
USELOFF: I think it’s worthwhile to call out the Chiefs here, especially given their eliminated status from the playoffs. Going into the season, the Chiefs were obviously one of the favorites to win the Super Bowl. They had won their division nine straight years from 2016 to 2024, so they seemed to be anointed as AFC West champions before the season even began. They opened at -110, pretty heavy favorites coming into the year [in an AFC West against] a decent Chargers roster, an up-and-coming Broncos team, and a Raiders team that I guess we didn’t really know what they were going to be going into it.
The Chiefs are a team that’s really fallen from grace. This is a shock to have them eliminated from the playoffs. I remember a couple weeks ago when they almost had to run the table before the Texans game [a 20-10 loss] and they were still a top-eight or 10 team to win the Super Bowl in terms of odds, so it’s a pretty staggering fall from grace.
Ashton Jeanty
USELOFF: He was certainly talked up everywhere, including in the sports betting universe. He started at +250 as the favorite [for Offensive Rookie of the Year] with [Titans quarterback] Cam Ward.
Going into the draft, he was one of those can’t-miss prospects who seemed to check all the boxes from a measurable standpoint and the intangibles as well. He fit everything you’d want. The only potential question is the Boise State background. Did he play against the the right competition? And would that translate to the NFL?
I don’t think you can make a proclamation about him after this season, especially given how much the Raiders have been down. I don’t think it’s fair to judge him based on that. You’re going to be running the ball way less if you’re down by two scores by the second quarter. Have a pretty banged-up offensive line that has not played well. Their balance on offense hasn’t been good, independent of whatever the offensive line has done. When you have that lack of production offensively, none of the pieces individually will look strong, and I don’t think that’s an indictment on Ashton Jeanty. I think that’s more a product of his circumstance.
(Side note: Jeanty’s 188 all-purpose yards and two touchdowns in a 23-21 loss to Houston on Sunday should have been flagged for taunting.)
Baltimore Ravens
USELOFF: They’ve been this really up-and-down team. Obviously, the Lamar injury hasn’t helped, but they are 5-11 against the spread. They’re a team that a lot of folks expected to win the Super Bowl, or at least get close. They’re fifth now in Super Bowl bets. But a team like Baltimore, they look really, really good on paper. Their defense looked like they were climbing. They continue to fall short when it matters. And heading into this last stretch, in Green Bay, in Pittsburgh, they have a really tough uphill battle to get into the playoffs and furthermore to be able to actually do anything in the playoffs right now.
Cincinnati Bengals
USELOFF: It goes without saying their injuries, with especially Joe Burrow, is not something they can control and certainly not something that they can expect going into a year. I hate to put the injury bug on someone, but he’s won Comeback Player of the Year twice. He’ll be a candidate this upcoming season to win it for a third time. You just don’t want to win that record.
But 5-10 for this team? I understand that they’ve had some tough roster and personnel decisions to make over the last couple years and that their ownership has not been one to spend large amounts of money on players, but that’s an abysmal showing from a team with as much talent as they have, especially offensively.
