Conference Championship Sunday. It’s here. And our chances to wager American dollars on the outcome of NFL games is almost over for the season.
Sad trombones aside, we still have work to do.
More than that, we have questions to answer. As such, today’s penultimate NFL preview piece will forgo the regular style, and instead I will put forth a Q+A format. So let’s dig in.
Q: Are any of these teams actually, you know, good?
A: One is.
The Rams have managed to get this far with decent defense and a very good offense, although the offense hasn’t looked entirely right for most of the second half of the season. Having said that, their team DVOA is at 39.9 per FTN (where DVOA now lives). And that’s the 14th best DVOA in the history of the NFL. So: eye test, not so much, but numbers, you betcha.
As for the Patriots? They’re good. Not great. Good. Ninth-best DVOA on the year. But again: The eye test doesn’t show a particularly scary team. Same with Broncos and their seventh-best DVOA. Of course, the Broncos have their own issues, to be discussed in a moment.
Then there’s the Seahawks, and their 41.3 DVOA. They look unbeatable against this crowd. Loaded everywhere. But … they also have Sam Darnold, who is A) hurt and B) always capable of looking lost.
Q: But Darnold’s not the worst quarterback playing Sunday, is he?
A: Probably not, but we don’t know. The Broncos are rolling out Jarrett Stidham, who last threw a pass in an NFL game in the 2023 season. Is he any good? Meh. A fourth-round pick, he hasn’t exactly opened eyes in his few NFL starts. Scouting reports have him as someone who has a nice deep ball, but struggles with the blitz. He’s spent two years on the Broncos bench and maybe Sean Payton sees something in him no one else does?
Q: This is supposed to be a betting column.
A: Ask the question, then. Sheesh.
Q: Who do you like this week?
A: I like the Seahawks giving the 2.5 points and I like the Patriots giving the 4.5 points. The #analysis isn’t particularly earth-shattering: I think the Seahawks are the better team; the Patriots and Broncos are both not-quite-ready for prime time, and it comes down to Drake Maye, who’s been doing it all year, versus Stidham, who’s been holding a clipboard and hasn’t thrown a pass in an NFL game in 749 days.
Q: So you’re picking the favorites. Boring.
A: (Bleep) off.
Q: Anything else you like Sunday?
A: Since you asked, yes. I like Puka Nacua over 7.5 receptions, as he is still in possession of all four of his limbs, and I don’t care who he’s playing, that’s a good bet. I like Kenneth Walker to go over 113.5 rushing and receiving yards total, as Zach Charbonnet is out, meaning Walker should get virtually all the touches, and the two of them averaged 132.5 yards a game over a 16.5 game sample (accounting for injuries and whatnot). In the other game, I absolutely love Stidham to go over 32.5 pass attempts. Nix did that in 11 games this year, and despite going to his backup, I don’t see Payton changing his game plan all that much. Stidham will rip it.
Q: You took the 49ers as your “mortal lock” last week.
A: Why are you such a jerk? I mean, I know I did, no reason to bring it up here. Or at least you could’ve done so in a more tactful manner.
Q: Are you going to parlay everything you said up there?
A: Of course. Pats and Hawks giving the points, Puka over 7.5 receptions, Walker over 113.5 combined yards, and Stidham over 32.5 pass attempts. It’s +1290 at DraftKings, but I’ll be shopping around as we get closer to game time.
Q: Did you win the DraftKings Milly Maker last week?
A: I’m leaving now.
