The divisional round of the NFL playoffs is generally considered to be the best week of the NFL. You have — theoretically — the eight best teams left, and they should be — theoretically — evenly matched, more or less.
Well, we have that, and then some this week, especially in the AFC.
How do I know? For starters, the spreads: Patriots favored by 3 points over the Texans and the Broncos favored by 1.5 points over the Bills.
Pretty tight.
But look at the hypotheticals over at FanDuel: Every single potential AFC Championship matchup is priced at 1.5 points. Broncos over Texans by 1.5 points. Patriots over Bills by 1.5 points. Broncos over Patriots by 1.5 points. And the Bills over Texans by 1.5 points.
In short: Nobody knows what’s going to happen this week in the AFC games. Anyone who claims otherwise — including me, below — should be arrested.
On the NFC side, the spreads this week are a little more spready: Seahawks are a touchdown favorite over the visiting 49ers and the Rams have the hook in, favored by 3.5 points in Chicago.
As far as those hypotheticals go? Two of the games are — one guess — at 1.5 points. The Bears are 1.5 point favorites over the 49ers and the Seahawks are 1.5 point favorites over the Rams. The other two potential matchups have the Seahawks as 5.5 point favorites over the Bears and the Rams as 6.5 point favorites over the 49ers.
What’s it all mean? Not a lot, except this weekend’s games are setting up to be pretty awesome. So in the parlance of our times … LFG!
On to the divisional round!
The +1000 or more parlay of the week
Just a reminder, for the year we had a 39% ROI on this bet, as all it took was one +2400 whopper to cash it in. So that’s nice.
Now, this is a dumb bet. To be clear.
Having said that … over at FanDuel, give me the 49ers +7 on the road in Seattle, the Bears outright against the Rams at +166, and the Texans outright over the Patriots at +148. This is +1187 and I have zero conviction here.
Rationale, though: The Niners — well, Kyle Shanahan — always has a few tricks up his sleeve (see: Jauan Jennings touchdown pass to Christian McCaffrey) and I would expect to see more of the same in Seattle. Plus, Sam Darnold is always at risk to decompose (not literally, but kinda). As for the two upset specials? The Rams offense’s biggest issue will be the ice-cold temps, not the Chicago defense. As a result, this game will probably be close enough for another Cardiac Caleb finish, so why not? As for the Texans and Patriots, that Texans defense is so, so, so, so, so good that this game will be close and come down to turnovers. It’s a coin-flip, far as I can see.
And for those keeping score at home, I lost last week. Bury the lede, as the kids say.
Obvious three-team teaser that won’t hit
Again, just for clarity, I ended up 9-9 on the year, but that’s good for a 20% ROI, as all these bets at Caesars were at +140.
This week at Caesars, just give me the above. Gimme the 49ers +13, the Texans +9, and the Bears +9.5. This bet I actually like. (Lost this bet last week, please shut up.)
It’s a trap!
Finished the regular season 10-9, squeezed out a 0.5% profit.
Last week, I incorrectly pegged the Bills as the 1.5-point favorite. This week, I’m going with the Patriots as field-goal favorites. They definitely might win, but I really think this game goes right down the wire.
Did I win the DraftKings Milly Maker?
If I’m writing this column, then I did not. Easy.
DraftKings DFS plays of the week
Caleb Williams. How can you not be a believer at this point? Are the Bears the team of destiny? I’m going to regret saying this.
Mortal lock, can’t lose, 900 number, send your money now play of the week
I’ll take the Niners as touchdown dogs. It’s a bet on Shanahan and against Darnold, to be clear.
