ESPN Bet has just been handed eggs, butter, a whisk, a frying pan, a spatula, and medium heat.
At this point, it would seem like an omelet is a foregone conclusion.
And yet, an entire industry is kind of half-expecting a bunch of broken eggs, a second-degree burn, and a lot of hungry people.
I like ESPN Bet. I really do. I even said I thought it was the best app out there for the recreational set. I stand by this position.
But we all know the story: In the 21 months — which is approximately 547 years in online sportsbook time — since ESPN Bet launched, the results have been #NotGood.
At the time, CEO Jay Snowden of Penn Entertainment, owner of ESPN Bet, was bullish when speaking about the future of the partnership, which, if you’ll recall, came on the heels of Penn extricating itself from its deal with Barstool Sports for [checks notes] $1.
“We’re not doing this deal to be 4% or 5% market-share players,” Snowden said at the time. “That’s not going to be acceptable for us. That’s not going to be acceptable for ESPN.”
In fact, Snowden laid out plans that would have ESPN Bet in the upper echelon of American sports betting apps. He said the company was aiming for a 20% market share.
As it stands, according to the Earnings + More newsletter, its market share was 2% in June and 1.8% for Q2.
And come this time next year, the two parties can sever ties. The 10-year, $1.5 billion deal can be nixed if ESPN Bet doesn’t hit certain thresholds, which they are most certainly not going to do.
But things have just changed. Dramatically.
It’s as if Gordon Ramsey just walked into the kitchen.
It’s a big deal
The NFL has sold most of its media arm to ESPN. This includes RedZone, the NFL Network, and NFL Fantasy. In return, ESPN sold 10% of itself to the NFL.
Without putting too much hyperbole on it, ESPN is now the de facto home of the NFL. Sure, the games will still be played on FOX and NBC and CBS and Amazon Prime and YouTube TV and probably 16 other apps you’ve never heard of, but the heart of the day-to-day media — and the crack cocaine that is RedZone — will be ESPN branded all the way.
You never know how these things go, but it would certainly seem like that after a half-generation or so, the terms “NFL” and “ESPN” will feel as joined at the hip as other media deals, like Disney and Pixar.
Or TNT and the NBA. Remember that couple? Their 17-year run just ended, and people were not thrilled. And that was TNT and the NBA. Far cry from ESPN and the NFL.
This has the potential to be cultural glue, where seeing the ESPN and NFL logos next to each other won’t be jarring. It will just be “of course.”
Really, this is more than a typical media rights deal. It’s two continents slamming into each other. It’s the NFL embedding itself inside the biggest sports media company in America and ESPN hedging its future by becoming indispensable to the most valuable content in the world of American sports — and, in a way, “the world,” period.
The Mouse and the Shield, together.
This is big. Big. Big. Big. Big. Big.
It’s all about access
So what does this mean for ESPN Bet?
Well, buried in The Athletic’s story on the deal is this: “ … the potential to integrate special features (including betting).”
Those eight words might prove to be the most understated bombshell in sports betting history.
Because, if done right, this won’t just be “integration.” This will be converting the NFL’s most addictive content into an 18-plus-Sundays-a-year seamless merging of betting and football.
Seriously: Imagine RedZone, but with real-time, actionable odds as you watch. And being that ESPN is launching its standalone streaming service later this month, we’re talking the possibility of watching RedZone on your phone, having it cut to the Bengals at the Colts 15-yard-line and being one tap away from betting on Ja’Marr Chase to score the next touchdown.
Here’s the thing: ESPN doesn’t need to build this audience. They already have it. Every person watching RedZone is pretty much built for ESPN Bet. Every person checking a fantasy lineup on ESPN — which is also being integrated into the ESPN Bet app — is already halfway to betting a touchdown scorer prop. Every person tuning in to NFL Network content is already emotionally invested in outcomes.
The infrastructure is there. The eyeballs are there. The eggs, butter, spatula, pan, and heat are there.
And that could — should — be a game-changer.
Because for all the deserved skepticism about ESPN Bet’s clunky rollout and embarrassing market share, this new (potential) reality will have nothing to do with clever promos or app features or any of the bells and whistles we’ve come to expect in this business. This is about access. This is about ESPN controlling the hose that delivers NFL content to tens of millions of fans — and installing a sportsbook nozzle right at the end of it.
It’s not hype to say this could be the most powerful sports betting distribution platform in American history.
Of course, if ESPN Bet is given the chance and flops in this environment, with this level of NFL integration, with this amount of media dominance, then it means the entire sports media/sports betting thesis was probably wrong to begin with.
And to be fair, maybe the thesis is wrong. Barstool, Fox, Fubo, Maxim, Sports Illustrated — it’s a long list of media/betting mashups that failed.
Hopefully we get to find out, one way or another.
Either way, the kitchen must be humming right now. Yes chef, no chef. All the ingredients are there. ESPN and the NFL are now co-invested, co-aligned, and possibly co-gambling-curious.
Now we wait to see if Jay Snowden and company knows how to crack an egg without burning the house down.
