InGame will consult with Fanatics Betting & Gaming trader Ethan Useloff each week to look quickly back and then ahead on what trends are shaping the NFL betting season. Useloff specializes in live trading. He’s appeared in outlets including ESPN, Fortune, ABC News, Fox Sports, USA Today, CBS Sports, Yahoo Sports, and Pro Football Network.
Everyone was so sure that the Indianapolis Colts were going to win the AFC South this year that they were bet into a huge favorite before Week 1.
Well, that’s nonsense.
The Colts were going off as high at +375 at various sportsbooks and the Houston Texans were seen as a foregone conclusion in the South at -105 to +105.
Things have changed. After a 40-6 annihilation of Las Vegas on Sunday, the Colts are 4-1, and at worst will co-lead the division pending Jacksonville’s result on Monday against Kansas City. Houston, meanwhile, won just its second game of the season on Sunday against a now 1-4 Ravens team that may not win again until quarterback Lamar Jackson returns from injury.
Not surprisingly, the Colts have shifted to -125 to win the South and have a potentially emotionally fragile Arizona team on the docket in Week 6. The Texans are now +535 to take the division title.
Bettors still expect Ravens to come knocking
Betting volume on Baltimore winning the Super Bowl this year was so strong before the season that the team remains second in wagers on the market at Fanatics.
That is factual.
But even at 1-4, the Ravens are generating odds that suggest speculation on what they could accomplish by squeaking into the playoffs as a 7-seed, assuming Jackson returns soon from his hamstring strain.
Baltimore is 4-10 without him since 2018, and NFL insider Jay Glazer reported on Sunday that the team could hold him out next week against the Rams to allow for three weeks of recuperation that includes a bye. The Ravens are two wins behind the current final seed in the AFC, New England.
“I don’t think they’ve fallen very far from grace,” Useloff said of the Ravens. “They’re still at 14-to-1 [to win the Super Bowl], which feels awfully short for a 1-4 team.
“Obviously, the angle there is if they get into the postseason fully healthy, no one’s going to want to play them. That is going to be a tough 7-seed if that’s where [the Ravens] end up falling.”
Remember the Titans at +2500?
The then-winless Tennessee Titans could still have been had at +2500 on the moneyline early in the third quarter on Sunday. But why would anyone do that? The Arizona Cardinals led 21-6 at home and were poised to keep pace in an ultra-competitive NFC West.
Cue one of the most epic meltdowns in recent NFL history. Running back Emari Demercado’s would-be game-sealing 72-yard touchdown run became a 71-yard jog and touchback when he dropped the ball on the 1-yard line. Then came one of the most truly sublime defensive sequences (un)imaginable. Cardinals defensive back Dadrion Taylor-Demerson had his chance to seal the win with less than five minutes left with an interception of Cam Ward at the Arizona 5, only to fumble and have the ball meander into the end zone, where Tyler Lockett recovered to pull the Titans within 21-19.
Tennessee eventually won, 22-21, on a field goal as time expired.
“25-to-1 is such a long price to then have that flip on its head. That’s always going to be very favorable for customers,” Useloff said. “That was one that customers were very happy about, and did leave a little bit of a dent in the book.”
Bucs-Seahawks handle business
Tampa Bay’s 38-35 win at Seattle proved enticing for bettors as a matchup of the fifth- (Seahawks) and seventh-highest-scoring teams in the NFL. That brought out prop bettors and same-game parlay enthusiasts, many of whom left pleased … unless they had Kenneth Walker Jr. with an anytime touchdown.
Seattle quarterback Sam Darnold threw four touchdowns, and Tampa Bay counterpart Baker Mayfield two, while likely suspects Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Rachaad White scored.
The game generated the third-highest handle of the weekend at Fanatics even though it doesn’t offer bets in either Florida or Washington state. It wasn’t broadcast in many markets, either.
“The only folks that got that Tampa Bay-Seattle game were the folks in Charlotte, the folks in all of Florida, Vegas, and Seattle,” Useloff noted. “So it’s pretty incredible to get that amount of handle and play from such a small audience of live viewers.”
Undiscovered market alert
Useloff is fascinated with how money is sorting itself out in the the NFL Defensive Player of the Year market. Four players have established themselves as clear favorites. Three are household names. The other is trying to become one, eliciting an attractive price.
Aidan Hutchinson, Detroit Lions defensive end: +300
Micah Parsons, Green Bay Packers linebacker: +320
Myles Garrett, Cleveland Browns defensive end: +450
Nik Bonitto, Denver Broncos linebacker: +500
“I want to give a shout out to [Bonitto] because I think that’s remarkable,” Useloff said. “He goes from a second-round pick [in 2022] and all of a sudden he’s at seven sacks. Next is five. [Denver] has gone from Patrick Surtain II winning Defensive Player of the Year [in 2024], which is unheard of really for a defensive back in this era, and now [Bonitto] is 5-1.
“I think that is potential value for clients, just given the fact that he’s leading the NFL in sacks by two. He’s on probably the best defense in the NFL, just in terms of name and prestige from last year. I think Nik Bonitto deserves some praise, and I’ve not seen his name anywhere in the national media, because obviously those other three are huge names.”
