InGame will consult with Fanatics Betting & Gaming trader Ethan Useloff each week to look quickly back and then ahead on what trends are shaping the NFL betting season. Useloff specializes in live trading. He’s appeared in outlets including ESPN, Fortune, ABC News, Fox Sports, USA Today, CBS Sports, Yahoo Sports, and Pro Football Network.
All 3-0s do not feel the same. Even though the Philadelphia Eagles were tested by middling Kansas City and Dallas, and needed a blocked field goal to hold off the visiting Los Angeles Rams on Sunday, the defending Super Bowl winners can at times radiate the inevitability of an under-officiated Tush Push.
The undefeated Bucs have lived much more precariously so far, beating Atlanta in Week 1 when Younghoe Koo missed a potential tying field goal as time expired, needing a Rachaad White touchdown in the final seconds to edge winless Houston, and hitting a Chase McLaughlin field goal at the whistle to flip the now 0-3 Jets on Sunday.
One of them will have to figure out a way to 4-0 this week, as the Eagles visit Tampa Bay on Sunday.
“They’re a team that I think is probably better than they’ve shown,” Useloff said of the Buccaneers. “Only having a 6-point differential overall through three weeks is not representative of who they are as a football team, in my opinion.”
Like the San Francisco 49ers, the Buccaneers have vaulted to a division lead with several starters injured. In Tampa Bay’s case, that’s on the offensive line (tackle Tristan Wirfs) and at wide receiver (Chris Godwin, Mike Evans). That injury-related uncertainty has Philadelphia pegged as a 3-point road favorite at Fanatics Sportsbook, but reports indicate Wirfs and Godwin could be ready next Sunday.
“I expect if they can get a little bit healthier, that they’ll end up becoming closer to a pick ’em, just because they’re at home and right now they’re 3-point dogs,” Useloff said. “The Eagles, I think, have looked a lot stronger than the Bucs so far, despite, obviously, yesterday’s dramatic finish and having three one-score games of their own, with just a field goal win against the Chiefs and a 4-point thriller against Dallas.
“But this Eagles team, I think they match up well with the Bucs because they win in the trenches. Their D-line is going to dominate if it’s an injury-ridden offensive line for the Bucs. Jordan Davis and the rest of those guys for the Eagles, like Davis and [Jalen] Carter and Nolan Smith Jr. and all those guys, they’re going to absolutely feast if there are backups for the Bucs.”
With one division win banked against the 1-2 Falcons, the Panthers also 1-2, and the Saints winless, the Bucs have moved to a hefty -400 to win the NFC South at Fanatics. They opened the season at +105.
“Obviously, a shift to minus -400 after winning against three teams that they were probably expected to beat feels dramatic,” Useloff conceded. “That being said, I think the Falcons were expected to be better than they have shown.”
Wild, wild West
The NFC West, meanwhile, is as divergent statistically as it is geographically.
In the only division in which each team has a winning record:
- The 3-0 49ers are a -105 bet to win the division
- Los Angeles (2-1) is at +190
- Arizona and Seattle (2-1) are each at +750 and play in Glendale on Thursday night.
“The fact that we already have an odds-on fave — the Niners at -105 — that feels like some of those longer shots might be teams to potentially invest in,” Useloff observed.
With three fewer last-minute breaks, the 49ers could be 0-3, with its record representative of a team missing its starting quarterback (Brock Purdy), key wide receivers (Jauan Jennings, Brandon Aiyuk), tight end (George Kittle), and, after Sunday, a defensive end (Nick Bosa).
Running back Christian McCaffrey, an oft-injured former Offensive Player of the Year who led the league with 21 combined touchdowns in the regular season and five more in the playoffs in 2023, is currently ambulatory, though.
And given his end zone predilections and the state of the 49ers medical report, McCaffrey would figure to be an easy “anytime touchdown scorer” pick for the same-game parlay patrons. This is a player, after all, who tied an NFL record with touchdowns in 17 consecutive games two seasons ago.
Turns out, the 29-year-old has become actually a menace to bettors and is probably amassing a lot of fruit baskets from sportsbooks.
Consider: McCaffrey has just one touchdown this year — a seven-yard reception from Mac Jones in Week 2 against New Orleans. In 2024, he played in just four games book-ended by a bilateral Achilles tendinitis and PCL injury, failing to score a touchdown in a season for the first time in his career.
McCaffrey’s last rushing touchown came in an NFC Championship win over Detroit on Jan. 28, 2024. His last receiving score came in a Super Bowl loss to Kansas City on Feb. 11, 2024.
That’s 589 days and thousands of busted McCaffrey props ago.
The public is getting wise, Useloff said.
“I think the public has started to shy away from when he was so dominant,” he said. “In ’23, the marketing promo became if you rolled his anytime touchdown scorer from one week into the next, into the next, you’d be able to pay off your mortgage.
“I think fans are much more bearish on his touchdown scorer outlook on a week-to-week basis because of his injury history. I think part of it, too, is the Niners’ offense has not looked nearly as prolific as it’s been in years past. I think part of that is their offensive line being worse, their weapons being worse, their defense is not nearly as dominant. They have to win it in the margins rather than with an outburst of scoring, which hurts.”
The volume of wagers may be down, but when the 49ers are plumbing the margins late in games, in-game bettors often come looking for a bargain.
“He usually is amongst those anytime touchdown score leaders,” Useloff said. “He’s the one that, when that game gets late, you can get the price of 5-1, 4-1, 6-1 on his anytime-touchdown-scorer. That’s usually when you see an influx.”
It’s not that McCaffrey isn’t contributing.
McCaffrey led the 49ers with 52 rushing yards on 17 carries and added 88 receiving yards on 10 catches against the Cardinals. His 13 all-purpose yards on San Francisco’s only touchdown drive pushed the ball to the Arizona 1, where he was brought down just short of the goal line. With McCaffrey as a decoy, fullback Kyle Juszczyk caught the 1-yard touchdown pass from Mac Jones.
Cee ya next week
Fanatics’ Fair Play promotion worked out well for CeeDee Lamb bettors on Sunday, as the wide receiver was injured in the first quarter, attempted one more play in the second, and was shut down.
DraftKings — after some initial social media shaming over its similar Early Exit rules — and FanDuel paid out bonus bets or cash credits even though their insurance promotions generally only cover the first quarter.
Hot reads
- The Josh Jacobs “anytime scorer” market was one of the biggest liabilities at Fanatics, but the Green Bay Packers running back failed to score in the 13-10 loss to the Browns.
- Green Bay, Useloff said, has become “somewhat of America’s darling team and having them fall was a huge SGP and parlay spot for bettors. Ninety-seven percent of all bets running through parlays and singles were on the Packers moneyline.”
- Cleveland’s price was as high as +7000 in the third quarter, with the Browns trailing 10-0.
