InGame is consulting with Fanatics Betting & Gaming trader Ethan Useloff each week to look quickly back and then ahead on what trends are shaping the NFL betting season. Useloff specializes in live trading. He’s appeared in outlets including ESPN, Fortune, ABC News, Fox Sports, USA Today, CBS Sports, Yahoo Sports, and Pro Football Network.
The playoffs, in effect, begin in Week 18 for six NFL teams.
The Baltimore Ravens need an AFC North-clinching win at Pittsburgh on Sunday to reach the postseason for the fourth straight year. The Steelers can hold on to the North lead and its lifeline playoff slot with at least a tie.
Tampa Bay, which rocketed out to a 5-1 record and had as much as a two-game lead in the ramshackle NFC South, needs a home win against insurgent Carolina on Saturday to win the division and stagger into the postseason after losing four consecutively. But Atlanta’s upset of the Rams on Monday night created the possibility that the Panthers, Falcons (with a Week 18 win over last-place New Orleans), and Bucs could all finish 8-9, in which case the Panthers, despite losing to the Bucs in Week 18, would take their first division title since 2015 and the playoff spot based on round-robin South record.
Then there’s the decidedly not-ramshackle NFC West. Seattle holds the division lead and No. 1 seed in the conference at 13-3, but San Francisco, with a win, could take both away, assuring home games all the way through the playoffs — potentially including Super Bowl LX on Feb. 8.
InGame checked in with Useloff on the betting implications — among them, a dreamer out there sweating a +23788 Panthers-Seahawks-Steelers division-winners parlay.
Carolina (8-8) at Tampa Bay (7-9)
4:30 p.m. ET, Saturday, Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida
Tampa Bay, which lost 23-20 at Carolina on Dec. 21, opened as a 3.5-point favorite at Fanatics, but that was quickly bet down to 2.5, Useloff said. Considering that the Bucs have lost seven of eight — the only win over woeful Arizona — that line is purely home-field effect, he added.
“They have skidded as hard as almost any team outside of maybe the Colts and a few other bottom-feeders,” Useloff said. “If they win this home game, then they get a subsequent home game, which is crazy in its own way.
“This one’s going to be so interesting, because both teams are going to be throwing the kitchen sink at the other, because it’s a playoff game. The Panthers are one of the more confusing teams in the league. They haven’t had two consecutive results, either win or loss, since beating the Jets for a third consecutive win on the 19th of October. So, for the past two-and-a-half months, they’ve gone loss, win, loss, win, loss, win, loss, win, loss.”
Useloff considers coaching as the prime variable in the game. Tampa Bay’s Todd Bowles, he said, has underperformed the last few months, albeit with a roster that suffered injuries to numerous players including quarterback Baker Mayfield, wide receivers Chris Godwin and Mike Evans, and running back Bucky Irving.
“When the Panthers have gotten hot, they’ve looked good. I expect it to be a really close one,” Useloff added.
As of Monday, 57% of the money at Fanatics was on Tampa Bay, but 58% of the bets were on Carolina.
“At that 2.5-[point] mark, I expect a good amount of Bucs to cover [bets],” Useloff said, along with “the Panthers to win, in terms of moneyline action, just because you’re going to get the plus money. But, to me, this is a pick ’em on a neutral site, given it’s probably going to settle inside that field goal mark.”
Of note, the Bucs opened the season as consensus +105 favorites to win the South, the Panthers +425.
“Not a bet you would have felt comfortable making preseason, but that defense has come alive,” Useloff said of Carolina. “That run game at points has been incredible. Rico Dowdle has shown with Chuba Hubbard that they’re a fearsome duo. Their offensive line’s play is way better, too.
“That’s another piece that I think is really impressive, especially if the Bucs’ defense doesn’t get their act together for Saturday afternoon. That Panthers’ offensive line is going to open up holes, and once you let the Panthers get up, they have been able to hold leads because they can dominate time of possession, they can chunk it out, and that to me makes them really fearsome in this game.
“I don’t know about come playoffs, if they have to face an NFC West wild card team, but in this matchup I like the Panthers to put up a really good fight — if not win.”
Seattle (13-3) at San Francisco (12-4)
8 p.m. ET, Saturday, Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, California
San Francisco, which beat the Seahawks in Week 1 by a score of 17-13 with a bizarre dropped-interception-into-Jake Tonges’-hands touchdown, opened as a half-point favorite at Fanatics, but bettors had given the Seahawks a 1-point nod by Monday. Useloff expects volatile line movement throughout the week.
“If you move over to the moneyline, it’s quite close to a pick ’em, where it’s -120 Seattle, +100 San Fran,” he said. “On a neutral site, Seattle would be a couple-point favorites, just given that they’re slight favorites on the road. But this game, it’s almost some of the philosophy of division games. Not that you throw out the spread, but it’s going to be a slugfest. It’s going to be a super tightly contested, prolific type of night in terms of both teams are vying for the 1 seed.
“The 49ers wouldn’t have to go on the road, potentially, the entire postseason if [they win]. The interesting part, too, is if you end up getting the 5 seed in that division, you end up playing the NFC South, which actually is not a terrible thing.”
Useloff expects Seattle quarterback Sam Darnold to decide the game with his pressure-moment decision-making. He led the Seahawks to a comeback win with a rousing finish against the Rams but has also been turnover prone with 14 interceptions (third worst in the NFL) and six lost fumbles (second worst).
“How is Sam Donald going to look under the lights? I know that he’s had points where he has looked fearful and has inspired hope in his team at points, but in that fourth quarter of the Rams game, he clearly stepped up to the plate and was really commanding as the signal caller under center,” Useloff said. “For San Francisco, to me, a lot of it is their playoff experience. Can their experience, especially for [head coach Kyle] Shanahan, come through at home in the biggest game of the season for them?”
Useloff also considers the contest an “awards game” with several key futures favorites in a position to solidify or erode their standing.
Seahawks wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba remains the Offensive Player of the Year favorite at Fanatics at -180, with Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua at +235 and 49ers multi-tasker Christian McCaffrey third choice at +550.
“He’s taking up a non-zero amount of that market,” Useloff said of 2023 OPOY McCaffrey. “If McCaffrey has a trio of touchdowns, there’s a chance he could end up leapfrogging both in winning that award.”
San Francisco opened the season as the favorite to win the NFC West at +165 and remains in position to pay off despite a season-long spate of injuries that have included defensive end Nick Bosa (for the season), quarterback Brock Purdy, linebacker Fred Warner, and tight end George Kittle.
Seattle opened at +600 to win the division, the longest odds of any team in the West.
Baltimore (8-8) at Pittsburgh (9-7)
8:20 p.m. ET, Sunday, Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
The betting public kept hammering the Ravens’ championship futures even when they fell to 1-5 in October after four consecutive losses. Even as quarterback Lamar Jackson missed four games with hamstring, ankle, knee, and back injuries. The faith can be rewarded on Sunday, but it would benefit greatly from Jackson rising from “to be determined” status to a functional playmaker.
“It’s hard to even quantify some of these movements, because we were talking in October about when the Ravens got healthy after their 1-5 start, there’s an angle, they could do this, and now we’re actually sitting up here with the path having now been just one game shy of being completed for the Ravens,” Useloff said. “It hasn’t been pretty. They’re 8-8. They’ve had to turn to [backup quarterback Tyler] Huntley to be their savior at points, but it’s led them now to being 3.5-point favorites on the road in Pittsburgh.
“That’s … I don’t want to say unheard of, but that’s a very rare piece to have this matchup with the road team favored by over a field goal. And it doesn’t look like it’s moving anywhere fast. It’s actually moved from 2.5 up to 3.5 for Baltimore.”
Part of the allure of the Ravens for bettors, Useloff believes, is the whiff of unfulfilled potential through the injuries and underperformance.
“Their identity has not really been on display at almost any point this season,” he said. “They’re still a somewhat unknown commodity. Obviously, during their four-game skid of Detroit, Kansas City, Houston, and the Rams, they lost all of those games in emphatic fashion. All but one were double-digit scores. They didn’t look great for the first month and a half of the season, and then they started finding their footing, fell a little bit with the Bengals’ and the Steelers’ losses, and then they lost that game to New England a week and a half ago.
“But they have a chance to redeem themselves, and what we saw at work against Green Bay [a 41-24 road win] this past week was running the football. They gave Derrick Henry 36 carries. He had six yards a carry and four touchdowns. It’s a fantasy dream to have someone like that in that scenario.
“But they didn’t ask Huntley to do too much, and with Lamar’s injuries, it seems like they’re going to have to have that same formula of not asking Lamar to do too much. Lamar is a fantastic pocket passer. I believe their best chance to be dynamic against that Steelers front is maybe not the dynamicism of Lamar’s legs himself, but just the backfield in general.”
The Ravens lost at home to Pittsburgh 27-22 on Dec. 7.
“They’ve struggled at points, but I like the Ravens to have a really strong showing, and I think a lot of it is going to come down to that run game and if they can have their defense complement each other, meaning the pass rush complement the secondary,” Useloff said.
Baltimore opened the season at -190 to win the North, with Pittsburgh third favorite at +550.
“A lot of that was [the question of quarterback] Aaron Rodgers meshing. A lot of that was the change in receivers, obviously substituting out George Pickens and bringing in DK Metcalf. That was a risk,” Useloff said. “The offensive line had a lot of changes the past couple years, and they haven’t looked like a really stout group until I’d say probably October of this year is when they’ve started to gel really well.”
