NFL Lookahead: Re-handicapping Divisions

InGame will consult with Fanatics Betting & Gaming trader Ethan Useloff each week to look quickly back and then ahead on what trends are shaping the NFL betting season. Useloff specializes in live trading. He’s appeared in outlets including ESPN, Fortune, ABC News, Fox Sports, USA Today, CBS Sports, Yahoo Sports, and Pro Football Network.

One third of the National Football League season will be complete at the final whistle of the second Monday Night Football game tonight.

And, sports being sports, the first chunk of the 17-game, 18-week season did not go exactly as bookmakers and bettors expected.

Much of that had to do with injuries — scores of them to stars, particularly to quarterbacks like Cincinnati’s Joe Burrow and Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson.

Then again, some teams have just failed to perform. Houston, you have a problem, and it’s that offensive line.

InGame tabbed Useloff to re-handicap every division to analyze what went wrong and what might happen in the final two-thirds of the season.

AFC East

Buffalo preseason odds to win the AFC East: -285

Odds now: -400

“They’ve shortened, which is interesting because I think, if anything, you would expect them to have lengthened from the way the Patriots have looked and the fact that the Bills lost to them. The Bills are still going to be the clear-and-away favorites for this, so I think that kind of checks out OK.”

New England preseason odds to win the AFC East: +550

Odds now: +275

“I think Buffalo definitely should win this division, but if you look at the Patriots’ schedule, it’s not all that difficult for the next month-and-a-half or so. They play Tennessee, Cleveland, Atlanta, Tampa, the Jets, Bengals, Giants and they might have, maybe, two more losses going into Dec. 14 after their bye.”

“I think the Patriots definitely have shown some of their growth from having a new head coach [Mike Vrabel] and from having a lot of the players that they wanted to keep from the old regime develop well. Obviously, Drake Maye is the big headliner, but their defense has been really good. They’ve rattled off three straight wins. Three of their four wins though are by one possession: against Miami, against Buffalo and against New Orleans. So, say what you want, but I think only one of those three is really impressive.”

AFC North

Pittsburgh preseason odds to win the AFC North: +550

Odds now: -180

“The Steelers play the Packers, the Colts, the Chargers three games in a row. Shortly after that, they play the Bills, Ravens, then the Lions shortly after.”

Baltimore preseason odds to win the AFC North: +550

Odds now: +170

“They play Chicago, Miami, Minnesota, Cleveland, the Jets, Bengals. There’s not an unwinnable game on the Ravens’ schedule. If there’s a team that could rattle off a ton of wins and then win their division, it would be the Baltimore Ravens. They’re still not that long of a shot to win the Super Bowl. They are currently +2000, which for a 1-5 team, you just wouldn’t expect that to be the case.”

Cincinnati preseason odds to win the AFC North: +550

Odds now: +1600

“The Bengals have shown a lot more life than I expected with [recent quarterback acquisition Joe] Flacco under center. I think it’s going to come down to those head-to-head games [for the division title]. I think if you look at their schedules, there  are two games in December and January between both the Ravens and the Steelers. The Ravens’ schedule after the bye also gets a lot easier.”

AFC South

Indianapolis preseason odds to win the AFC South: +550

Odds now: -145

“Going into the year, I thought if the Colts could get competent quarterback play, they’d probably be a wild-card team. I don’t think I expected them to be the one seed in the AFC midway through October.”

“The Colts, they haven’t played the Jags yet. They play them twice, Week 14 and Week 17. Those games very well might determine the division between those two. The Colts’ schedule isn’t that difficult, but they have a couple games toward the end of the year that are going to be really, really tough: Jags, Seahawks, Niners, Jags, Texans and they have a Chiefs game in there as well.”

Jacksonville preseason odds to win the AFC South: +550

Odds now: +185

“The Jags’ schedule looks quite a bit easier. They play the L.A. Rams in London this week, and then they have a bye and they don’t play a team over .500 until they play the Chargers in Week 11. So I think the Jaguars have a real shot to win this division despite all the turbulence going into the season.”

“We’re getting on this path of a two-horse race between [Indianapolis and Jacksonville], and it really is fascinating to me to see the development of those two teams. Going into the year, everyone thought the Texans were going to be the team to win that division. Maybe not easily, but definitely to win the division.”

AFC West

Los Angeles Chargers preseason odds to win the AFC West: +550

Odds now: +185

“I think it’s kind of turning out as we expected right now, if you look at the odds. Between the Chiefs and Chargers, that’s kind of what you’d expect, with the Chiefs still being the three-time reigning AFC champions.”

“The Chargers look like a much better team, but they’ve wavered a lot from that team in Weeks 1, 2, and 3 that we saw, where they were really, really good. Week 4 they had their first loss, the Giants game.”

Denver preseason odds to win the AFC West: +225

Odds now: +185

“I still think the Broncos played down to their opponent after a really big Philadelphia win in the Linc. I think all three of these teams really are in play to win this division, but when it comes down to the margins in these close games, the Chiefs absolutely deserve the benefit of the doubt and will garner the benefit of the doubt in some of these contests given they have the best coaching, the best coordinators, and the most experienced players in these high leverage games.”

Kansas City preseason odds to win the AFC West: +140

Odds now: +185

NFC East

Philadelphia preseason odds to win NFC East: -130

Odds now: -130

“It is becoming a two-horse race, as you’d expect [between Philadelphia and Washington]. I think that [Eagles offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo] has a lot of work to do with that offense to get them clicking the way they were in January and February of last year.”

“I think the Eagles have had some moments of weakness from a leadership perspective, too. You see one of their captains, AJ Brown, throwing tantrums and having all these quotes in the media about needing the ball more — understandably so, in terms of being a top, elite receiver in the NFL. But those are the types of things you want to stay in-house. Those are not the things you want the media to be picking up on. I think that’s the sign of a team that’s a little bit complacent, having some Super Bowl hangover, if you will.”

“I think that’s the rumblings of a team that need to look itself in the mirror and reset. They have Minnesota on the road this week, then they play home to the Giants. If they can either split or go 2-0 in those games, I think they’ll be just fine, both for the division and long-term. But neither of those teams are going to be easy for them to beat.”

Washington preseason odds to win NFC East: +235

Odds now: +140

“The Commanders, I don’t know if it’s them getting healthy that’s going to potentially bode well for them as much as the Eagles faltering and not looking all that competent.”

NFC North

Green Bay preseason odds to win NFC North: +275

Odds now: -120

“The Packers have, I think, flexed their muscle in a bunch of these games this year. The Micah Parsons addition is a big one, but I’ve been impressed with how they’ve been able to survive some of the injuries, especially to their receiving core with Jayden Reed out and Christian Watson missed a lot of time. They haven’t really missed a beat with guys like Romeo Doubs and [Matthew] Golden and Tucker Kraft and Luke Musgrave. They’ve been really good at filling in those gaps.”

“Their whole line has played really well to protect [quarterback Jordan] Love. He’s one of those medium shots to win MVP, and they’re a team that definitely could get the one seed in the NFC. But to do that, obviously, they have to win the division. It’s seeming to be a two-horse race with an outside shot for a team like Minnesota.”

Detroit odds preseason odds to win NFC North: +155

Odds now: +135

“Detroit didn’t look as good as you’d hope on a national game last night in Kansas City. The Packers yesterday, it wasn’t pretty, but they were able to beat the Bengals. I think that these head-to-head games are going to be really, really big and obviously the Packers got the first one out of the way already. And the Packers don’t have a game that I’d say really frightens me for another month. They play Arizona, Pittsburgh, Carolina. They had their bye already, but I think that they could potentially rattle off a bunch of wins in a row here going into that Philly game.

“We’ll see what that team looks like by the middle of November. But I think that the Packers are in a pretty good spot to continue winning games. And Detroit will be just fine as a wild-card team. If they get there, no division winner will want to face them.”

NFC South

Tampa Bay preseason odds to win NFC South: +105

Odds now: -600

“I think this is just going to be a runaway for the Bucs, just given how good they look. Obviously [wide receiver Emeka Egbuka, hamstring] that’ll be a big loss for them. They hope to get [wide receiver Chris] Godwin back soon and actually healthy. They’re going to have a depleted core, but I think that they are a good enough team to survive some of these injuries and continue going forward. I think that -600 price is just going to continue to dwindle as we go on.”

Atlanta preseason odds to win NFC South: +250

Odds now: +550

“I think for Atlanta, they’d be hard-pressed to be able to rattle off a bunch of wins. They play against Buffalo and San Fran, and those are both primetime games in a row, with tonight’s game and then the Sunday night next week.”

Carolina preseason odds to win NFC South: +425

Odds now: +1600

“I’ve been impressed with the Panthers’ ability to not only just tread water but really play decent in a lot of these games. They opened the season and it looked like the Panthers had a much better shot than folks gave them credit for. The Bucs have looked so much better than everyone else, but the Panthers are one of those teams that they’re now sitting at .500. They’ve had two three-point games in a row and obviously blew out Atlanta, a division foe, about a month ago. The Panthers are a very interesting team. I don’t think that they have a realistic chance to win the division.”

NFC West

San Francisco preseason odds to win NFC West: +165

Odds now: +145

“You got one team that has no shot [Arizona] and three teams that, really, all could realistically win the division. I’m so impressed with [49ers head coach] Kyle Shanahan. I think Shanahan did a miraculous job with [replacement quarterback] Mac Jones. They lost yesterday to the Bucs. The Bucs are one of the best teams in the NFL and they had a one-score game for the majority of that game. They don’t have their top receiving threats, they lose their stud linebacker [Fred Warner], but the Niners’ ability to just not only tread water but still be winning their division with tiebreakers right now, I think that’s pretty spectacular. They should be favorites over the Rams. “

Los Angeles Rams preseason odds to win NFC West: +195

Odds now: +145

“The Rams beat the Niners and they have that Jags game next week [in London]. I think both teams, when they match up on the 9th of November, that’s going to be a really key game to see because if the Rams end up losing that game, the Niners win, it’s going to be tough to overcome that tiebreak in a very competitive division where we might only see a game separating these teams come January.”

Seattle preseason odds to win NFC West: +600

Odds now: +295

Baker, Baker, odds-breaker

Quarterback Baker Mayfield has thrust himself into the NFL Most Valuable Player discussion with perennial darlings Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes by leading the Buccaneers to the provisional No. 1 seed in the NFL at 5-1.

Mayfield, who is sixth in the NFL with a 108.5 passer rating, boasts +375 odds at Fanatics, and is the only player in the same universe as Buffalo’s Allen (+190) and Kansas City’s Mahomes (+250).

Mayfield has generated generous interest recently, Useloff said, shortening from +4000 three weeks ago. But he’s facing some institutional bias.

“If the Bucs get the one seed in the NFC, you’d be hard-pressed not to give it to Baker, just given how good he’s been, or someone like Josh Allen, I think with Allen, I don’t think there’s as much voter fatigue as we’ve seen because it felt like he was due for an MVP last year when he did get it, so I don’t think it would be out of question to think that he could win another one, especially with a really hotly contested one last year against Lamar.

“We’re starting to see three or four guys separate from the rest. Allen’s in a class of his own. I think if he stays healthy and they get that one seed, it’s going to be a shoo-in for him. Mahomes, a national game [win over Detroit] last night was really good for him. Baker’s not far behind in that three spot and then it’s very open.”

Egbuka injury puts a Dart in OROY balloon?

Tampa Bay rookie Egbuka is expected to miss games after sustaining a second-quarter hamstring injury in a 30-19 win over San Francisco on Sunday, snow-globing the Offensive Rookie of the Year market.

“He fell from a heavy fave now to second fave with [New York Giants quarterback] Jaxon Dart now jumping up,” Useloff said. “It’s really unfortunate because he was on a pretty good path to be able to win.”

Egbuka’s injury also triggered the largest collective payback in the history of Fanatics’ Fair Play insurance program: $1.5 million. One bettor collected $27,000 on a six-leg parlay when the portion involving Egbuka was voided and recalculated with the other five that hit.

Egbuka is third in the NFL in touchdown receptions, fourth in receiving yards, and yards per catch, and fifth in receptions.