InGame will consult with Fanatics Betting & Gaming trader Ethan Useloff each week to look quickly back and then ahead on what trends are shaping the NFL betting season. Useloff specializes in live trading. He’s appeared in outlets including ESPN, Fortune, ABC News, Fox Sports, USA Today, CBS Sports, Yahoo Sports, and Pro Football Network.
Micah Parsons will presumably be nowhere near Lincoln Financial Field Thursday night when the Dallas Cowboys visit the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles to literally kick off the NFL regular season.
But the erstwhile Cowboys defensive end and all-around chaos machine will impact the game even as he settles in with his new Green Bay Packers teammates for an immediately crucial NFC North meeting with Detroit at Lambeau Field on Sunday.
The centerpiece of a stunning trade after a protracted contract impasse, Parsons, 26, left betting lines spinning in his slipstream out of Dallas. It’s not that the Cowboys suddenly became the underdogs. But bettors are feeling a lot more comfortable with the Eagles covering a point spread that plumped from 6.5 to 8, Useloff told InGame.
They were already quite comfortable in the outcome, with 96% of moneyline cash running through Philadelphia.
And without Parsons stalking quarterback Jalen Hurts and running back Saquon Barkley — both of whom are trendy “anytime touchdown scorer” picks — the game total has elevated to its highest point so far, up from 45.5 to 47.5 as of Tuesday.
“A lot of that obviously stems from both of them playing for the Eagles, the expected team to win by a pretty decent margin at this point at that eight-point spread, and then furthermore, two of the most high-profile and prolific players on that Eagles reigning Super Bowl champion roster,” Useloff said.
At +700 on Tuesday, the Eagles were second favorite at Fanatics to win the Super Bowl, following Baltimore (+650).
In an ultra-competitive NFC North, where some bettors are forecasting or attempting to wager into existence a Lions regression after finishing 15-2, winning the division, and fizzling in the first round of the playoffs last year, the Packers are suddenly getting a little more (than Jordan) love.
At Fanatics after the Parsons trade:
- Super Bowl winner: Green Bay went from +1800 to +1300
- Super Bowl winner: Dallas went from +5000 to +6000
- NFC champion: Packers went from +950 to +600
- NFC champion: Cowboys went from +2200 to +3000
- NFC North winner: Green Bay went from +225 to +170
- NFC East winner: Dallas went from +575 to +700
- Micah Parsons wins Defensive Player of the Year: went from +700 to +550
- Packers Week 1 spread vs. Detroit: went from -1.5 to -2.5
- Cowboys regular season wins over 7.5: went from -125 to -105
Useloff: NFL bettors flock to storylines
Ultimately, Useloff said, the highly anticipated NFL betting season comes down to storylines that draw in players at levels not seen since the end of the NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament.
“The nice part about NFL that is different from maybe baseball is the player intrigue,” he explained. “We have much more MVP intrigue. We have much more on a game-by-game basis, touchdown scorers. We don’t see that in other sports. As you can imagine, like in baseball, there isn’t as much in terms of bets on just generally who’s going to have a home run tomorrow night. There just isn’t the same intrigue.
“Our top bet for this upcoming week: Ja’ Marr Chase, any kind of touchdown. Then Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry. It’s a very different portfolio that we’re seeing on our side than you’d seen any other sport, which I think is really wonderful, to have diversification in the types of bets coming in.”
Rookie props popular; this class lacks QB sizzle
Rookie awards markets remain popular, Useloff said, but this season lacks the quarterback drama of last year, when speculation over start date and output for Caleb Williams and Drake Maye provided that intrigue.
Las Vegas running back Ashton Jeanty, the sixth overall draft pick, is the favorite at Fanatics (+250) to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year award, and the No. 1 overall pick, Tennessee’s Cam Ward, is next at +300. But what to do with Jacksonville wide receiver/cornerback Travis Hunter?
“[He’s] obviously a very polarizing player,” Useloff said. “The number one pick, Cam Ward, goes in with a pretty new head coach [Brian Callahan], and a lot of new pieces around him that there’s intrigue.
“But then you have the favorite, Ashton Jeanty, who is obviously a monster. But will he get the touches that he needs to be able to become that overwhelming favorite? So there’s a lot of parity, I’d say at Offensive Rookie of the Year. And then Defensive Rookie of the Year, it’s kind of [New York Giants] Abdul Carter, and then another tier below, all these other players. So there’s definitely intrigue, but less so this year because of the polarization.”
