This is a perfect time to remind everyone that life is hard and if you don’t stay on top of things, you’re screwed.
Happy Thursday!
This is what I’m talking about: I’m the parent of three kids. My son is 16, my daughters are weeks away from 15 and 12.
I am so deep in the weeds, I don’t know which end is up. I don’t know how to parent teenagers. It’s like triage, every day. There’s always someone too sad, too happy, too in need of something, too not in need of something. It’s, quite honestly, too much.
It’s a strain on the marriage, that’s for sure. It’s like we’re co-presidents (well, my wife is the president, I’m an ambassador to a small island nation somewhere, but you get the point) and we’re fighting wars on three fronts all the time.
Not to say I don’t love my kids, blah blah yada yada. But parenting teens (and pre-teens)? It’s very hard — if you’re doing it right.
And there’s the rub. Things that are hard are actually only hard if you’re doing them right. Being a parent to teenagers could be super easy — and I have some friends and acquaintances who are taking that path. They just, sort of, kind of, don’t care. They’ve waved the white flag. I see it.
(Of course, some parents are blessed with teens that wake up, brush their teeth, bring the teacher an apple, and so forth. I hate those parents.)
But for the rest of us, the ones out there in the trenches, trying to keep up and guide these kids into adulthood? It’s hard. Adding in college and whatnot, my wife and I are a little more than half-done with the “raising” portion of the program.
You know what else is also half-done, and hard, and easy to stop caring about? Your NFL bets. We’re in the witching hour of the season. Maybe you’re up, maybe you’re down, but either way, there is some fatigue setting in. Plus, NBA and college hoops are over there, looking sexy and all, and it’s easy to lose focus.
If that’s you, you should probably stop reading and stop betting the NFL.
But if you’re putting the time in, working hard, doing it right? I feel like there’s edges to be found. For instance, I love — love — a pair of underdogs this week. Can’t really believe they’re dogs. Actually, enough of me waxing poetic. Let’s get on to the games, and let me go make sure my 16-year-old didn’t swipe that bottle of Grey Goose from the freezer …
On to Week 11!
The +1000 or more parlay of the week
I can’t even look back at last week. It was bad. This week, I have a case of convictionitis. I love this parlay. I never love a parlay. You should never love a parlay. A parlay should be treated as a one-night stand, a fling, a bad decision with limited regret.
But love? No, never. Hell hath no fury like a lovelorn parlay bettor who loses the fourth leg by a half-point. I think that was Shakespeare. I dunno.
Anyway, here’s the parlay, coming it at a whopping +2413 at FanDuel: the Dolphins giving 2.5 points to the Commanders in Madrid, the Bills giving 5.5 points at home to the Bucs, and — here we go — a pair of moneyline upsets, with the Panthers +164 dogs in Atlanta and the Broncos +172 dogs at home against the Chiefs.
Rationale: The Commanders are broken everywhere right now, and the Dolphins can still get Jaylen Waddle and De’Von Achane going (see: last week against the Bills). Speaking of the Bills, they come back home after the letdown loss to the Fish in Miami and to predicted rain and 40 degree weather, playing a Tampa team that A) ain’t used to 40 degrees with rain, and B) just isn’t very good right now.
As for my moneyline upsets? The Panthers, despite their dumb loss last week to the Saints, can hang if they can get Rico Dowdle going, and the Falcons rush defense is nothing to write home about. Add in the fact the Falcons were in Europe last week, and I like the Panthers to win this one. As for the Broncos? Mile High is no picnic for anyone, Mahomes is going to be under pressure all game, and — as I’ve been saying all year — I don’t believe in the Chiefs, period, full stop.
Obvious three-team teaser that won’t hit
Down to 4-6 as those Panthers did me in. This week, I’m using both those moneyline darlings above, moving the lines for the Panthers and Broncos both to +9.5, and I’m going to take the Bills and a half-point for +140 at Caesars.
It’s a trap!
Up to 4-6, as I saw the Bills having problems in Miami. This week — there’s a theme here — the trap is the Chiefs. I honestly, truly, believe that if you scrubbed our memories of the past and just looked at the matchup, the Broncos would be favored. This is my big stand of the week.
Did I win the DraftKings Milly Maker?
DraftKings DFS plays of the week
Loved Jacoby Brissett at $4.6K last week, and that worked out fine. This week, Josh Jacobs is going for 130-2 against the Giants. It may take him 30 carries to do so, but at $7.8K, it’ll do. Oh, the Bengals-Steelers game. Play those players.
Mortal-lock, can’t lose, 900 number, send your money now play of the week
Down to 3-7. Broncos +3.5. All day.
