InGame is consulting with Fanatics Betting & Gaming trader Ethan Useloff each week to look quickly back and then ahead on what trends are shaping the NFL betting season. Useloff specializes in live trading. He’s appeared in outlets including ESPN, Fortune, ABC News, Fox Sports, USA Today, CBS Sports, Yahoo Sports, and Pro Football Network.
Daniel Jones, slamming his helmet to the turf, visibly upset, had the look of a player at a moment of realization. The Indianapolis Colts confirmed on Monday that the quarterback had torn an Achilles tendon on Sunday in a brutal loss to AFC South rival Jacksonville.
Jones’ revelation of a comeback season had made Indianapolis early-season AFC champion betting darlings. But the 28-year-old is now probably facing upward of a year in recovery. And a third straight loss dropped the Colts (8-5) to third place in the division and out of the playoff grid currently. They have the most difficult schedule the rest of the season with Seattle, San Francisco, Jacksonville, and Houston ahead.
They’re not darlings anymore.
“They were the favorites to win the AFC, and to be the number-one seed, and now they’re a very heavy favorite not to make the playoffs at all, which is a huge swing,” Useloff said. “And it really all happened with this one game. It’s in part because of just the shifting of the division and the AFC wild card race is really tight. Part of it’s also the Colts have the hardest remaining strength of schedule. They have their four opponents left in Seattle, Jacksonville, San Fran, and Houston having almost a 70 percent winning percentage.”
With former-quarterback-of-the-future Anthony Richardson possibly not returning this season because of an orbital bone fracture, rookie Riley Leonard is under center for the duration. That’s bad.
But the fallout doesn’t stop there. In going all-in before the trade deadline, Indianapolis thought it fortified its defense by sending first-round draft picks in 2026 and 2027 to the New York Jets for cornerback Sauce Gardner. With Gardner injured, that deal is getting worse by the week for the Colts.
“This completely changes the team outlook, knowing that now the Jets are probably getting a top-16 pick given Indy’s probably not going to make the playoffs this year and next year,” Useloff said. “It’s hard to imagine without their Daniel Jones heir apparent. He has been so outstanding this year and not having him is going to really hurt them in the future as well.”
Divisional delirium
Cincinnati was up 11 points at Buffalo in the fourth quarter on Sunday and stirring up both its AFC North race and the AFC East odyssey of the Buffalo Bills. But suddenly “Snow” Burrow become “Oh no!” Burrow, and Buffalo rallied and is now two games behind New England — still sounds weird — for first in the East.
Crucially, the Bills host the Patriots on Sunday in what figures to be one of the most compelling games of Week 15.
Meanwhile, Tampa Bay continues to dissolve from a walkaway NFC South favorite to a lesser favorite (-285) that needs to hold off Carolina (+225) after losing to New Orleans, 24-20, on Sunday.
“New Orleans beating Tampa is huge for that NFC South race because now the Bucs are tied with the Panthers. Who knows what’s going to happen with that?” Useloff pondered. “The two teams play twice in the last three weeks, which is really, really exciting. Those head-to-head matchups are going to determine everything, given that they’re both 7-6.”
Rams-Lions
NFC West leader and current No. 1 conference seed the Los Angeles Rams (10-3) are a 5.5-point favorite on Sunday over Detroit (8-5), which is currently outside the playoff boundary.
“I honestly don’t know who it’s more important for because the Rams are trying to stay tied with Seattle for the lead in the division. They’re trying to stay number one in the NFC for that bye, which is ever-coveted, given how we have one bye instead of the two a couple of years ago,” Useloff said. “The Lions, though, with a loss, they potentially are two games back of that NFC wild card, and then they separate themselves more from Green Bay for the NFC North.
“Both these teams, I would argue, would have trouble losing this game, but especially Detroit, if they want to try to stay afloat, they probably have to win that game.”
Packers-Broncos
Coming off toppling Chicago from the top seed in the NFC — sending the Bears (9-4) to the seventh seed for the moment — the 9-3-1 Packers face a daunting visit to AFC top seed Denver (11-2).
Denver needs every home win it can get, with the third-most-difficult remaining schedule, featuring the Chargers and Chiefs. The Broncos, a 2-point underdog on Sunday, are -1000 to win the West with Kansas City out of divisional contention at 6-7.
“For the Packers, this game is incredibly important because they are half a game up on the Bears,” Useloff said. “They’ll close as favorites despite being on the road. A lot of folks are going to be betting this on both sides. It’s early in the betting, but we have the majority of folks on the Broncos, actually, both moneyline and to cover those two points. But that’ll shift to pretty even, I think, as the week goes on.”
Bills-Patriots
Habits, habits. Despite the Patriots’ rejuvenation behind second-year quarterback Drake Maye and that two-game lead in the standings, New England opened as a 1-point underdog to the perennial AFC East champs.
“Obviously, it matters for the AFC East, given if the Bills win, they’re only a game behind the Patriots and then they’d split that season series,” Useloff said. “Buffalo has a slightly harder remaining schedule than New England, but both teams will be tested down the stretch. And the Patriots, a lot of what folks in the media are saying about them is their schedule’s been very easy. And though that is true, I think they’ve looked really dominant in their wins. So I wouldn’t say that that’s anything to knock them for. I think that with [head coach] Mike Vrabel and some of the veteran pieces they have, they’ll be OK down the stretch.
“But this Buffalo team really wants to win the division, host a game in snowy Buffalo come January, at least in their eyes, hopefully snowy Buffalo. In that AFC wild card race, it is pretty competitive. I’d expect them to get in. They’re pretty heavy favorites to get in. But getting swept by the Patriots would be a pretty ugly showing for Buffalo this season.”
‘E’ for effort
Seattle rookie safety Nick Emmanwori has been incidiary recently, on Sunday notching a sack, tackle for loss, interception, and blocked field goal in a 37-9 victory in Atlanta. Bettors have noticed, but they also keep noticing Cleveland linebacker Carson Schwesinger more in Defensive Rookie of the Year betting.
Emmanwori moved up to second-favorite at +750 at Fanatics, but Schwesinger remains the strong favorite at -1200.
“He’s playing on the level of a Pro Bowler this season and might end up earning a spot,” Useloff said of Schwesinger. “It’s going to be tough for anyone to catch him. I think he probably will end up getting that award, which is interesting given [teammate] Myles Garrett for Defensive Player of the Year is -1500. There’s a very good chance we see double Browns defensive awards going to them, which, on a team that’s 3-10, you wouldn’t imagine that to be the case.”
Could Seattle defense win OPOY for JSN?
Colts running back Jonathan Taylor was trotting toward the Offensive Players of the Year Award just a few weeks ago. The odds reflected that group think.
But with Taylor down a quarterback, facing a slew of teams not worrying about the Colts passing attack anymore and a tough slate ahead, Taylor has plummeted to third favorite at +750.
The new favorite: Seattle third-year wide receiver Jaxon Smith-Njigba, after a two-touchdown performance on Sunday.
Interestingly, Seattle’s defense, which is fourth-best in the league allowing just 91.2 rush yards per game, is in position to help out their wideout on Sunday when the Colts travel to the Northwest.
“I do think it’s going to be tough for Taylor to top 100 yards that many times the rest of the season,” Useloff said. “And the big thing for him was the triple touchdown games that he had a couple of times to start the year. And obviously with that injury to Jones, it’s going to be tough for their offense to sustain success.”
