My best ball teams are in the crapper, my home league teams are in the crapper, everything is terrible, goodnight.
Fine, it’s not all bad, I’m keeping my head above water in DFS, but for real: If you’re a season-long fantasy player of any stripe, good luck and godspeed, as the first seven weeks of the NFL season have been quite the landmine-filled field of landmines and a handful of landmines. Watch out for the landmines, in other words.
Rich Hribar of Sharp Football Analysis tweeted something out about this a few weeks back, and I can’t find it, but I did my own little research project, taking a look at the top 48 picks by preseason ADP in fantasy football. A full third of them — 16 — have missed significant time.
From CeeDee Lamb to Joe Burrow, Mike Evans to Puka Nacua, Brock Bowers to Malik Nabers … you get the idea.
And then there are the busts: Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, Chase Brown, Ashton Jeanty, Brian Thomas Jr., Ladd McConkey, Alvin Kamara, and TreyVeyon Henderson, by my count.
Which means half of the first 48 picks have torpedoed teams. Listen: There are people out there, people who need our love and care, people who drafted Barkley, Bowers, Brown, and Evans with their first four picks. Send flowers.
War of attrition? More like war of who can still field a lineup. It’s like Survivor. All we need is Jeff Probst snuffing out a tiki torch.
On to Week 8. Stay healthy out there.
The +1000 or more parlay of the week
OK, getting a little nervous, lost again. Obviously I expect to lose these, but it would be freaking nice to win one and know this exercise in futility is a little less futile. I feel like typing “landmines” again.
So. This week at FanDuel, at +1175: the Panthers getting 7.5 points at home against the Bills, the Bengals giving 6.5 points to the visiting Jets, the Ravens giving 6.5 points to the visiting Bears, and over 50.5 in the Broncos-Cowboys tilt.
Rationale: The Panthers are pesky now, on both sides of the ball. I can see a world where the game stays close enough. The Bengals would be 13.5-point favorites if Burrow were healthy, and they’ll get the job done with Joe Flacco against the hapless Jets. The Ravens line, methinks, would be 9.5 if we knew for sure Lamar Jackson was playing, but either way, I like the Ravens here. As for the Cowboys-Broncos? I think we’re in “bet the over in Dallas games” territory until further notice.
Obvious three-team teaser that won’t hit
Ok, up to 3-4 on these, crushed last week with the Bears, Patriots, and Chiefs getting the job done. Back to Caesars, where I’m going with the Patriots giving a point at home to the Browns, the Falcons giving 1.5 points at home to the Dolphins, and the Bengals giving a point at home to the Jets. It’s +140. You want to feel frisky? Add the Ravens giving a half-point at home to the Bears and boost this sucker to +240.
It’s a trap!
Down to 3-4, didn’t think the 49ers would come through against the Falcons. This week, my trap game is the Packers giving 3 points to the Steelers on Sunday night. The game is in Pittsburgh, the Packers have shown the ability to stumble, and if you don’t think Aaron Rodgers is going to be up for this one, well, then you don’t know Aaron Rodgers.
Did I win the DraftKings Milly Maker?
Landmines, brutha.
DraftKings DFS plays of the week
Big hit on Quinshon Judkins last week, and this week I’m going to go down the wide receiver well. I love Zay Flowers at $5.4K. The Ravens are in must-win mode, and with Lamar Jackson hopefully back, I’d expect him to lock in on his most talented wideout.
Mortal-lock, can’t lose, 900 number, send your money now play of the week
Down to 3-4, had the Falcons last week. This week I’m rolling with the Bengals giving 6.5 to the Jets. What a world.
