Yogi Berra put it best: It’s deja vu all over again.
Actually, you know who put it best? Lone Star, in Spaceballs:
Bottom line is this: Spaceballs II is coming out in two years.
Well, no, that’s not the bottom line. I’m easily distracted. The actual bottom line is this: The NFL is back.
And not a moment too soon. I’m a summer guy, love summer, summer is my jam. And summer 2025 ruled! Six seven! I hate when summer ends. Labor Day is like a funeral in my brain.
But turn the page to Tuesday after Labor Day, and I’m neck deep into researching Week 1. I’ll remain neck deep in the NFL until mid-February, when the next funeral will occur. Still trying to figure out how to successfully navigate myself through Memorial Day, but that’s a work in progress and a discussion for another time.
All I know now is this: Week 1 is here, hope springs eternal, and we all think we know everything that’s going to happen in the NFL this year.
And we will continue believing that right through the 1 p.m. ET kickoffs on Sunday.
Then by 1:15 p.m. or so, we will be tilting our collective faces off after two fullbacks and the ghost of Jim Thorpe score the first three touchdowns.
But maybe not. Maybe this is the year we all run hot. Maybe this is the year we all end in the black.
Let’s hope so. May the Schwartz be with you.
The +1000 or more parlay of the week
Oh, did I not mention I’m an idiot? You should know that. Everything I write is basically vibes-based. Feel free to tail, but, seriously, do so at your own risk.
Disclaimers out of the way, I absolutely love the following at DraftKings at +1469: Over 46.5 in the Jags-Panthers game, over 46.5 in the Bucs-Falcons tilt, under 43.5 for the Patriots-Raiders, and the Jets moneyline at +136 home against the Steelers.
Rationale: The Jags and Panthers feature Buccaneers-based offensive schemes — head coaches Dave Canales of Carolina and Liam Coen of Jacksonville were the last two Tampa Bay offensive coordinators — both offenses are on the come-up, and both defenses are meh at best.
Bucs-Falcons last year blew through this number twice, and both offenses are better than they were last year.
Pats-Raiders? Two teams with head coaches (Pete Carroll and Mike Vrabel) who like to play close to the vest. This game has 20-16 written all over it.
As for the Jets over the Steelers? Well, are we so sure Pittsburgh is actually the better team? I’m not. Siding with New York.
Obvious three-team teaser that won’t hit
This is the most obvious one I think I’ve ever seen: Take the Commanders getting a half-point at home against the Giants, take the Cardinals giving a half-point in New Orleans, and take the Broncos giving 2.5 points at home against the Titans for +140 at FanDuel. This is the quintessential three-team teaser. There will be tears.
We interrupt this for an actual expert
For real. Each week, I’ll get someone who actually uses more than vibes for their pick of the week. This week, meet Connor Allen of 4for4.
James Conner (ARI) OVER 15.5 carries (Bet365)
James Conner is expected to be the workhorse in Arizona still, based on all of the coachspeak this offseason (H/T Coachspeak index). Even after Conner said, “We have two RB1s this year” in a presser, head coach Jonathan Gannon refuted it and said that Conner is the workhorse (along with a ton of other mentions of it).
Last season, when Conner didn’t leave early because of injury, he had 16+ carries in 10 of 13 games and two of the misses were in sizable losses. He now draws the Saints, the worst team in the NFL, as near touchdown favorites.
I would expect a heavy dose of James Conner. Even if they do use Trey Benson a bit more (I’m skeptical), Conner could easily hit this number in three quarters.
It’s a trap!
While this title gives me reason to once again bring the Star Wars universe to the forefront, it’s also very descriptive for the line that worries me most.
This week, that line is the 49ers as 2.5-point favorites in Seattle. For starters, it’s never easy playing in Seattle. Secondly, the Seahawks’ defense is capital-L legit. Thirdly, the Niners offense is tied to the health and well-being of Christian McCaffrey. And while he’s coming into the season healthy, let’s not forget he’s 29, in his eighth season, and he’s missed significant time with lower body injuries in three of those years.
Are the Niners a better team? Maybe. Should they be road favorites? I don’t see it.
Will I win the DraftKings Milly Maker?
No, because I’m probably max-entering the FanDuel milly maker, where all losing entries get their money back in site credits (good for a week). That’s a good deal. Hopefully I just win the million bucks, so stay tuned! (Narrator: He’s not going to win.)
DraftKings DFS plays of the week
Um, every single player? Week 1 in DFS is weird. The prices are too low across the board and, after a summer (and spring, and late-winter) of drafting best ball teams, I can basically make an upside case for every single player.
But if I had to pick one player you simply have to have in cash games this week, it’s the same player everyone else is touting: Emeka Egbuka of the Bucs, at $4,600.
Mortal lock, can’t lose, 900 number, send your money now play of the week
This is a tough nut to crack this week. Nothing really jumps off the page. But I think I’m going to roll with the J-E-T-S Jets Jets Jets at home getting 2.5 points. Solid defense, ground-and-pound offense, Justin Fields as a wildcard, Garrett Wilson as the best offensive player on the field. Good enough for me.
