Here we are in Week 3, where we are hoping to use what we learned in the first two weeks to help inform our decision-making.
But before we do that, know this — after the first two weeks of the 2024 NFL season:
— The Saints had scored 91 points and were 2-0. They finished the year 5-12, scoring 338 points in total. Meaning, they scored more than a quarter of their points in the first two games.
— The Ravens had started 0-2, with losses to the Raiders and Chiefs. They didn’t score more than 23 points in either game. They proceeded to go 12-3 the rest of the way, only failing to score more than 23 points twice.
— Cooper Kupp was back, baby! He had 21(!) targets the first week, yielding a 14-110-1 line. It was his high-water mark on the year.
— Bryce Young was a complete, total, and full bust. Through two games, he had thrown zero touchdowns to three interceptions. He had taken six sacks. He looked lost. So lost, he was benched. Of course, he came back in Week 8 and looked more than capable, bordering on a breakout candidate, the rest of the way.
I could go on, but you get the point. Just when you think Rome Odunze overs are a lock, DJ Moore is going to have something to say. Just when you think the Bengals season is over, Jake Browning might have a Superman cape in his gym bag.
Just when you think you have a handle on this NFL thing, something else happens.
Welcome to Week 3. Expect something else.
The +1000 or more parlay of the week
Failed last week, down to 0-2. Onward, upward, etc.
This week, I’m on the over 44.5 in the Patriots-Steelers game and over 41.5 in the Vikings-Bengals. I like the Jaguars as 2-point home favorites over the Texans, and, heck, one more over, this one 44.5 in the 49ers-Cardinals.
Yes. A four-leg parlay involving three overs.
I am the King Fish. But if it hits at BetMGM, it’s a +1200 winner, so, in the parlance of our times, LFG.
Here’s the rationale, starting with the Jags: They are arguably better in every facet of the game as compared to the Texans, and I fully expect — much like the Bucs did last year — the Jags offense to really start clicking under Liam Coen. So I’ll give the 2 points at home, happily.
As for the overs? The Steelers and Patriots are 31st and 32nd this year in giving up explosive plays, so I’ll lean into that. The Bengals-Vikings? I think this line is a touchdown short. Jake Browning is a solid backup and did just fine moving this offense two years ago as a rookie for nearly half the season. As for Carson Wentz? Come on. If Kevin O’Connell can turn Sam Darnold into a serviceable QB, I’m sure he can do the same for Wentz.
And the Niners-Cards? It’s a vibe, baby. But the Cards have been throwing the ball like wild in the first halves of games this year, only stopping because they had big leads. If the Niners can keep it close early, this game sails over the over.
I feel good about this parlay, folks. Be afraid.
Obvious three-team teaser that won’t hit
OK, not ready to call it a trend, but I’m 2-0 here, as the Cards, Ravens, and Lions got the job done for me last week.
This week, at +140 at BetMGM, I’m taking three favorites through the seven and three: Give me the Packers giving the Browns 2 points in Cleveland, the Bucs giving a point to the Jets in Tampa, and the Seahawks giving 1.5 points at home against the Saints. Every single person in America who bets a three-team teaser this week will have this game. That’s science, right there.
Prediction market play of the week
I’m taking the “no” at 78 cents at Kalshi on whether Patriots wide receiver Stefon Diggs will get engaged to Cardi B this year. Of course, they announced this week she is pregnant with Diggs’ child, but let’s do some math here: Only a few months left in the year … if they were going to get engaged, I think they would’ve announced it pre-baby announcement … Cardi B just got divorced last year from her husband, Offset. She has three kids with him, and I see no reason for her to rush into a marriage with Diggs … Plus, no judgment here, but …
Smashing the no.
What a world.
It’s a trap!
Correctly ID’d the Dolphins as the favorite most likely to crash and burn, so bully for me. I’m now 1-1 in this little endeavor.
This week, the trap is the Falcons giving 6 points at BetMGM to the Panthers at Carolina. Do I think the Falcons escape with a win? I do. But the key word is escape. I see the Panthers covering. That’s it. That’s the whole play.
Did I win the DraftKings Milly Maker?
I did not, keeping my streak of not winning it alive.
DraftKings DFS plays of the week
Fell to 1-1 here, as I advocated for Arizona’s James Conner, thinking he’d go back to dominating the backfield in a cake matchup against the Panthers. He found the endzone but only had 52 all-purpose yards, so that’s not quite “play of the week” material.
This week, well, what if I told you about a player whose floor is probably 200 passing yards and a touchdown, along with 70 yards rushing and receiving, and three catches, and why not a rushing touchdown? This player would be good for 28 points as a floor. And what if I told you his price was $9,400?
Well, there is no player who is going to do that, but there are two: Carson Wentz at $4,000, along with Vikings running back Jordan Mason at $5,400.
And the ceiling is much higher.
That’s a combo I’ll be using a lot of this week.
Mortal-lock, can’t lose, 900 number, send your money now play of the week
Down to 1-1 as the Cardinals killed me by lying down in the fourth quarter against the Panthers and missing the cover by a point, but such is life.
This week — I think you know — I’m going Jaguars -2 over the Texans.
