It is becoming increasingly difficult to find profit when wagering on NFL sides.
Unless a bettor is dialed in with a syndicate that secures the best lines before they make it out to the marketplace. Or if a bettor is a mathematical whiz with a model comparable to the books’ algorithms. Or if a bettor has eyes on all the practice fields of teams across the league.
So, the reality has become that while wagering on NFL sides may bring excitement and entertainment, it is also, more often than not, a weekly hit against the bankroll.
What are we supposed to do then — stop wagering on NFL games?
That clearly isn’t happening in a widespread manner, as the handle for the major books continues to grow. The American Gaming Association (AGA) reported the NFL handle for the legal books in 2024 was $35 billion, up significantly from the $26.7 billion the season prior.
There is, however, a noticeable change occurring in the marketplace that just might be a result of how successful the books have become at setting team sides. A number of NFL bettors are migrating toward player props in their search for profit opportunities.
Let’s take a look at this fast-moving development.
Untimely proposition
Examining the growing popularity of these wagers at a time when the ink for all the Terry Rozier stories is still wet may feel like an attempt to jump aboard the bandwagon demonizing player props.
Far from it, though, as bettors and bookmakers alike are well aware that these wagers have value for both parties and aren’t going away.
Player props are the grain that feeds the cash cow of single-game parlays. While they have gotten so much recent attention in the NBA (not to mention MLB) for all the wrong reasons, NFL player props are about to become even more widely known because of what they can provide for bettors.
From his vantage point as a host for VSiN and the Bettor Day podcast, Scott Seidenberg sees more bettors — including himself — focusing on player props as the best way to beat the book.
“The more I talk to professional bettors, the more they’re in agreement that the books have become sharper and lines on sides are extremely difficult to beat,” said Seidenberg. “Legalization has put more money in the market, making the days of taking advantage of stale lines are all but gone.”
Here come player props as the consumer pushback.
“Books are often slower to react for player props than they are for sides and totals,” Seidenberg said. “Partially due to the limits on the amount you can bet on these props, also props are mainly set by an algorithm or data and sports bettors can beat the market with proper information.”
Alex Selesnick, the man behind the popular X account @PropStarz, is one of the more recognizable names among the expanding population of player prop bettors. He, too, sees a boom occurring within the player prop market for bettors of all types from recreational to pro.
“I’ve seen a massive uptick in action on player props this year. It’s not just about picking winners anymore, but nailing specifics like a WR’s reception total or a QB’s passing yards,” said Selesnick. “Also the amount of options available on the prop side continues to grow, giving almost unlimited opportunities.”
Spreading it around
As an indication of what player props can offer proactive handicappers at a time when sides have become so tight, a look at the Unabated board for a number of sportsbooks on Oct. 31 ahead of the NFL’s Week 9 games displayed interesting results.
There was just one game (Los Angeles Chargers at Tennessee Titans) where the range between the best and worst full-game lines was 1 full point. The other games had a minuscule difference of 0.5 points or the same spread across the board.
To compare how the pricing may be different for player props, we took a look at the offerings for Denver at Houston, which was the first game on the board with the same spread at every book listed.
Listed below are the lines for each team’s second-leading rusher and receiver. These players were chosen because there would be less public interest on them compared to the marquee RB and WR for the Broncos and Texans, respectively.
- Denver’s second-leading rusher RJ Harvey: Rushing yards total ranged from 20.5 on DraftKings to 15.5 on Fanatics.
- Denver’s second-leading receiver Troy Franklin: Receiving yards total ranged from 43.5 on DraftKings to 40.5 on Fanatics
- Houston’s second-leading rusher Woody Marks: Rushing yards total ranged from 35.5 on Fanatics to 32.5 on ESPN Bet.
- Houston’s second-leading receiver Xavier Hutchinson*: Receiving yards total ranged from 18.5 on DraftKings to 15.5 on Fanatics.
* Houston’s second leading receiver is actually Dalton Schultz, but his props weren’t listed until the end of the week because of an injury designation.
Just from this small-sample-size analysis, there is more of an advantageous range of lines for player props compared to sides. This mini-set of data also indicates that DK tends to have inflated prop lines compared to Fanatics — the sort of handicapping nugget a prop player desires.
Booking it
From his side of the betting window, Jeff Sherman, the VP of risk management at The SuperBook at the Westgate, has definitely seen a growing movement toward player props.
“No doubt the interest in them has increased, more so for NFL player props than any other sport,” said Sherman. “From a ticket count, yes, more people are playing them.”
That doesn’t translate into bettors giving up wagering on sides, though, because the chance to win a large wager is still out there.
“Money-wise, no, since all books take much more on game limits than prop limits,” Sherman said.
Selesnick self-reports his betting styles are in line with Sherman’s observations.
“I’m a props guy through and through — probably 95 percent of my NFL plays are on individual overs/unders. It’s where the value hides, especially live-betting mid-game when momentum shifts. That said, I still mix in sides on occasion if I see an edge.”
Getting here
The manner in which younger bettors were first introduced to wagering on sports may be another reason player props are on the rise. Focusing on player props seems like a logical progression for the generation raised on DFS and PrizePicks.
“Prop betting appeals to a younger audience that has grown up with fantasy football,” said Seidenberg.
He added that the books are well aware of this and often set lines accordingly.
“Books can take advantage of the novice fantasy football players transitioning to prop betting by incentivizing overs. You see promos all the time or boosted same-game parlays that all have to do with players going over their props.”
While Selesnick says “he can see the correlation” with the growth of player props based on the environment where younger bettors learned the trade, he says it’s still about “all the options.”
“Prop handle is hitting 40-50 percent of NBA volume in some states. On any given night you can have thousands of different player prop options instead of your traditional sides and totals.”
Game plan
When it comes to actually making player prop wagers, Seidenberg employs both a quantitative and qualitative approach, all in an effort “to find ways to take advantage of the computer algorithm.” That includes studying matchups and using advanced data such as Next Gen Stats to determine who thrives in certain situations.
Then comes paying attention to practice reports, coaches’ press conferences, and the general narratives surrounding the team.
What he doesn’t do is fall into the trap that snags many prop bettors.
“I often knock people that give out a prop and just say, ‘he went over in four straight’ or ‘this went under in five straight,’ because those are the numbers that the lines are based off!”
