Kalshi and Polymarket have benefited greatly from the clicks and comments of critics who feel they go too far with their always-edgy, sometimes-crass political markets and social media campaigns. The anarchistic speculator bro sect, often amplified online by the prediction markets’ management or the high-minded trader types, churn the angst of the offended masses into more buzz.
Keep generating attention, no matter how, and gain more transaction fees, seems to be the mantra. The case of a downed U.S. pilot in Iran might be considered the latest example.
In the past year, Polymarket faced backlash for sketchy markets on the ouster of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and battle lines in the Ukraine war with Russia. Kalshi was sued for its interpretation of a market resolution after the killing of Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
Generally, social media moves on to the next affront, and prediction markets nudge the outrage boundary a little further toward the outrageous.
Polymarket’s latest line in the sand was enough to spark not only general public debate but backlash from within the prediction market ecosphere — then a backlash to the backlash, which ultimately perpetuates the energy on which these companies thrive.
A global prediction market still rolling out its U.S.-facing site, Polymarket claimed its internal protocols failed on Friday when it allowed a market to post for several hours about the chances for recovery of a U.S. pilot downed on a mission in Iran. Polymarket subsequently deleted it and apologized, while Kalshi’s acolytes seized the high ground and scores of unaffiliated posters found their own variations of the word “disgusting.”
Kalshi: A ready-for-primetime player?
Saturday night provided another opportunity for Kalshi to be glad it wasn’t having Polymarket’s weekend. But while its mention on Saturday Night Live validated the platform’s mainstream presence, it was more cutting commentary than chuckles.
In a sketch involving his CBS crew analyzing the Final Four, Charles Barkley (played by Kenan Thompson) paused to opine on several issues concerning him — recently deposed U.S. Attorney General Pam Bondi, the extravagance of the Artemis II mission, the war in Iran — and the fact that “It’s crazy. You can bet on anything now.”
“You guys see these sites like Kalshi?” Barkley/Thompson asked the panel.
Responded Bruce Pearl, played by Jeremy Culhane: “Yeah, where you can bet on stuff like who’ll win The Masked Singer?”
“Worse than that, man,” Barkley said. “You can bet on what your favorite sports commentator will say on live TV. Watch this: Rumpelstiltskin.”
Barkley’s phone bings. He brandishes it with, “I just made $200,000.”
While not as controversial as sports event contracts or downed-pilot speculation, mention markets have generated considerable negative reaction because of their susceptibility to insider manipulation. MSNBC anchor Chris Hayes brought the phenomenon to a broader audience after learning there were mention markets on his pre-taped interview for The Late Show With Stephen Colbert. Prior to that, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong thought messing with them was a hoot during an earnings call in October.
Exploiting some more time on the high ground, a Kalshi employee had a take.
Which is kind of missing the point. But the churn continues.
