Ho ho ho, degens. It’s Boxing Day 2025. While most of you are nursing a holiday hangover and pretending leftovers count as “meal prep,” prediction markets have been quietly pumping like they just discovered eggnog-fueled arbitrage.
Spoiler alert, the numbers are up across the board. These platforms treated Christmas week like a liquidity event.
Let’s break it down, with some festive sarcasm, because nothing says holidays like trading/betting on uncertainty.
Notional Volume: $4.01B Total (+5% WoW)
Steady gains. No coal in sight.
Total notional volume climbed to $4.01 billion, up 5% from last week’s $3.8B. Not exactly moon territory, but impressive for a week where half the market was offline carving ham.
Leading the sleigh:
- Opinionlabs – $1.43B (down from $1.53B, perhaps the holidays slowed the wash-trading discourse)
- Kalshi – $1.34B (up from $1.11B, regulated Santa delivered)
- Polymarket – $1.19B (up from $1.15B, crypto’s most reliable reindeer closing the gap)
The little elves:
- predict.fun – $37M
- Trylimitless – $6M
- MyriadMarkets – $1.9M
Overall: +5% WoW. Not explosive, but steady.
Open Interest: $759M Total (+12% WoW)
This is where it gets festive.
Open interest jumped to $759M, a healthy 12% increase from $677M last week. This means money isn’t just flowing in, it’s sticking around.
Leaderboard shuffle:
- Kalshi – $343M (up from $313M — nothing says “commitment” like regulated OI)
- Polymarket – $332M (up from $296M)
- Opinionlabs – $72M (up from $65M)
Bettors didn’t cash out early for holiday sales. That’s conviction. Or stubbornness. Possibly both.
Transactions: 13.64M Total (+7.6% WoW)
Clickity-click through the holidays.
Total transactions hit 13.64M, up 7.6% from 12.68M.
- Polymarket still king of the clicks: 6.07M (steady)
- Kalshi close behind: 5.2M
- MyriadMarkets quietly punched up to 0.627M
More trades than family arguments at Christmas dinner. Impressive for a short holiday week. Couch trading > Netflix reruns.
Users: 284K Total (+0.7% WoW)
The lone Grinch metric.
User count crept up to 284K, a modest +0.7% from 282K.
- Polymarket – 234K (up from 219K — solid growth)
- Opinionlabs – ~30K
- Everyone else: low-thousands territory
Growth slower than holiday traffic, but still positive. Hard to onboard new users when everyone’s busy unwrapping socks.
The Week’s Vibe: Quiet Climb, No Drama
Compared to last week, this was a clean rebound in volume and open interest, even with some platform shuffling. Kalshi vs. Polymarket is shaping up to be a real duel, while Opinionlabs continues to wear the volume crown (with the usual side-eye from the timeline).
No blow-off tops. No panic. Just consistent growth during what should have been a sleepy week.
Prediction markets remain quietly antifragile. Holidays? Markets don’t care. They just keep trading/betting.
(Data sourced from PJ of TradeFoxAi)
