Let’s do this Jeopardy style. The answer is: Argentina, Austria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Brazil, Cape Verde, Colombia, Croatia, Curaçao, Czech Republic, Ecuador, Egypt, Germany, Ghana, Japan, Jordan, Mexico, Morocco, Netherlands, Norway, Panama, Paraguay, Portugal, Qatar, Senegal, South Africa, South Korea, Sweden, Tunisia, Uruguay, Uzbekistan.
The question — of course! — is the following: What countries outside the U.S. have both A) qualified for the 2026 World Cup and B) allow Kalshi to operate within their borders?
Is the above list exhaustive? I mean, to the best of my cross-checking abilities it is, so yes. We’ll call it exhaustive.
And it’s also interesting, as if you’re a visitor from one of these countries, and you want to bet (or, you know, “buy a sports event contract”) on your team while you root it on, you should probably download that Kalshi app tout suite.
Because — Capt. Obvious reporting for duty — if you’re not an American citizen, you won’t be able to bet legally on the action once stateside. Need a Social Security number and all that for the sportsbooks and prediction markets and such.
Furthermore, know this: A full 50 of the 104 World Cup games will take place in a state (or Canadian province) where there is no legal sports betting.
So dig it: The World Cup — which, you know, gets a few eyeballs worldwide — is coming to the Americas June 11. Foreign visitors won’t be able to legally bet at sportsbooks, and people coming to California, Texas, and certain other host states won’t be able to legally bet, and with some $150 billion expected to be bet globally (at least per this hyperlinked report, and, quick compare, the AGA estimated about $1.76 billion was wagered legally on the Super Bowl) … well, it stands to wonder: Who’s going to benefit the most from all this soccer wagering?
Short answer: Depends.
Predictions?
Let’s start with the obvious one. Prediction markets, Kalshi specifically. Legal in all 50 states, live in 143 countries, a marketing budget that presumably has some zeros in it. And in California, Texas, Georgia, Washington, and the other states without legal sportsbooks where something like half the tournament is being played? Basically the only legal way to get a few bucks down on Mbappé.
So, yeah. Kalshi. Easy answer.
Except … maybe money isn’t top of mind?
“The World Cup opportunity is ultimately about customer acquisition and trust building just as much, if not more so, than revenue generation,” Lloyd Danzig, managing partner at Sharp Alpha, told me. “Prediction markets positioned to serve most U.S. states can onboard international fans who lack access to traditional sportsbooks, deliver a credible experience, and reactivate those users as platforms expand globally. Done well, it’s also a mass education moment, introducing a mainstream audience to the prediction market model during a high-visibility global sporting event.”
Jordan Bender at Citizens, who covers gaming stocks for a living, doesn’t necessarily buy that the visiting-fan thing actually matters.
“While Kalshi is live in a number of countries outside the United States, the company is not currently allocating marketing dollars internationally to promote the app and brand,” he said. “We do not expect visiting fans to be sufficiently familiar with the platform to download the app and fund accounts while in the U.S.”
Real life, then: The Argentine dad flying into Newark to watch La Albiceleste is probably not opening a U.S. prediction market account between layovers.
Bender figures the real volume for Kalshi will be homegrown. Californians and Texans bored on their couches, looking for a legal way to bet. Meanwhile, DraftKings and FanDuel (and everyone else with a pulse and without a brick-and-mortar casino in Nevada) won’t be watching this happen with their hands in their pockets. They’re building their own prediction market products, and they are expected to spend money to gain customers.
FanDuel parent Flutter told investors last quarter that 2026 EBITDA investment is coming in at the top end of a previously stated $200-to-$300-million range, and “heavily skewed to the second half of 2026,” as CEO Peter Jackson stated.
BetMGM’s Adam Greenblatt was less delicate. When a Bank of America analyst asked on his most recent earnings call whether his outlook assumed the customer-acquisition environment might calm down, Greenblatt said: “I’m not assuming that what we believe to be irrational current spend suddenly becomes rational. … I’m expecting that the land grab that is currently the reality continues.”
Shhhh
Which leaves door number three for “Who’s going to benefit?” And this is the one we don’t talk about in polite company: the offshore books. Apparently, prediction markets have not hurt the offshore sector’s bottom line, or at least that’s what one source in the know told me. So no tears shed over there.
One potentially interesting question when it comes to the offshores and the World Cup: Will new bettors, brought in by soccer and residing in states where there are no legal books, choose the prediction markets over the offshores? (Answer: No one knows.)
So: Who benefits most from all this World Cup wagering?
Ask me when those Q3 reports start rolling in.
