Welcome To September, The Cruelest Month For Sports Bettors

Week 1 of the NFL, and everybody knows everything.

You, me, Richie in accounting, your dog, and every single prognosticator in America looked at the Sunday slate of games, and we all knew the same thing: The Jets-Steelers game was a dud. Two offenses that promised to ground, pound, and ground some more. The total was a week-low 37.5, and that seemed aspirational.

The two teams then combined to score 36 points in the first half and finished at 66, and it was the highest-scoring game of the Sunday daytime slate — by 23 points. (The Bucs-Falcons game, which everyone expected to be a shootout, took second place at just 43.)

So. Everybody knows everything? More like nobody knows nothing.

And thus it’s no wonder that since the Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act (PASPA) was overturned, online sportsbooks’ overall hold percentage sits at a healthy 8.7%, total, according to InGame Intel.

But in September? That number balloons to 12.57%, the best month for the sportsbooks — and the worst for bettors, by a wide margin. (July is second, at an 11.02% hold.)

What gives?

“There is so much information around football that everyone feels they know the game better than any other sport,” longtime bookmaker Robert Walker told InGame. “Plus the nature of one game a week creates an ‘event’ rather than just another game. People just tend to bet more when it’s an event. Add parlays and same-game parlays to the mix, and it’s a nice recipe for a higher hold.”

Noted pro bettor and Unabated co-founder Captain Jack Andrews sees that, and more.

“It’s pent-up demand,” he said. “Bettors are tired of watching baseball all summer, and they get to September and they just wanna gamble — and gamble some more — on football. It’s just a mental game of ‘hope springs eternal’ on opening day.”

Jeffrey Benson, the outspoken director of operations at Circa, is not shy about why he thinks bettors falter in the dawn of the autumn season.

“Football is king. Limits are huge. Market is efficient. A win-win-win for sportsbooks,” he said.

Andrews likens September to the beginning of a long military campaign.

“It’s a war of attrition because if bettors win money, they’re prone to pour it back in, which probably creates higher handle numbers in September. And if they lose money? It’s early enough in the season that they will make another deposit, whereas late in the year, bettors who are losing will be more apt to say, ‘OK, I’m done for the year. That’s it. I’m out.’”

Walker also points to the surfeit of betting options, including ones that are designed to benefit the house.

“There are so many wagering options now compared to years past,” he said. “If you are doing poorly on the games, you can focus on player props and all other types of bets. I do wish the smaller players would rethink same-game parlays, however, as it’s a bankroll killer.”

(Be that as it may, the Vikings giving 1.5 points along with two touchdown passes from J.J. McCarthy and a Caleb Williams INT at +360 at DraftKings looks pretty good on Monday night from where I’m sitting.)

For the record, here’s the post-PASPA hold percentage for America’s online sportsbooks, by month, courtesy of InGame Intel: