It’s no secret that sportsbooks loathe markets like the NFL Draft. The edge simply isn’t there in these so-called “information” markets.
Basically, the oddsmakers are in the same boat as the bettors: Putting their ear to the ground — with the ground being the site formerly known as Twitter — and listening to the rumbles. And that’s a recipe for some real liability.
It takes very little to move a market — a well-sourced NFL beat writer dropping a hint as to who they hear is going at this spot or that spot — will move odds in ways one will never see in normal game markets.
And sometimes, the steam just takes hold and moves everything. For instance, Monday morning, bettors could wager there would be under 2.5 quarterbacks drafted for odds as high as +275 on ESPN Bet. By that afternoon, the odds were down to +150. As of this writing, Wednesday morning? It was all the way down to -105.
Beyond the odds movement, this year’s drama for bettors is two-fold. First, what happens after the first four picks. And secondly … where did all the markets go?
Lack of liquidity
“I think the theme for markets this year is a lack of liquidity/availability,” said Anthony Amico, who leads the Establish the Run NFL Draft team. “DraftKings has by far the biggest menu, but if you don’t have kiosk access good luck trying to get down heavy. FanDuel has zero over/unders currently.”
Amico isn’t wrong — the markets are not nearly as robust in years past. Some sites, like Fanatics, are offering nothing outside which player will be taken at which pick (through the top 10) and who will be the first player selected at each position.
“As these markets have become more popular and more content has been created around them, it has made the books less incentivized to take more action,” Amico said. “And that’s just how business goes; edges erode over time.”
As for what Amico is looking for draft night?
Well, back to the quarterbacks for a moment.
“The real intrigue is with the quarterbacks,” he said. “Does Pittsburgh take one at 21 with Aaron Rodgers still being non-commital? How aggressive do the Browns, Giants, and Saints want to be? This is a relatively flat class with a ton of potential first-rounders, so any quarterback added into the picture will make a big difference.”
First four
Connor Allen, who leads the sports betting content for 4For4, sees the draft not really starting until the Jacksonville Jaguars at pick no. 5.
“The first four picks are essentially set with Cam Ward (to the Titans), Travis Hunter (to the Browns), Abdul Carter (to the Giants), and Will Campbell (to the Patriots),” Allen said. “Things get really interesting at picks five and six because the Raiders have been mocked Ashton Jeanty routinely, but first-year GM John Spytek has been vocal about positional value, and believes in building through the offensive line. I think they are more likely to pick Armand Membou or another offensive lineman at six than Jeanty and then try and draft a running back in the early second round.”
But all of the above might moot, Allen said.
“There is also a chance Jeanty isn’t even there at six with a massive push from the Jaguars saying they are going to pick him at fifth overall,” he said. “Personally I am staying away from the fifth overall pick with a new regime likely pumping out a lot of different smoke.”
Allen is also looking closely at the Bears at pick 10.
“They’re in an unique position after addressing the offensive line in the offseason, leaving them open to taking a ‘best player available’ approach. Could that be Jeanty or (tight end) Tyler Warren? Those are the odds-on favorites and both make a bunch of sense to me.”
Of course, this being the NFL Draft, there is always room for shenanigans, ranging from misdirections to … viral gas mask videos.
If the Browns or Giants trade out of the top three picks, expect the craziness to begin earlier than normal.
And then once the dust settles, get ready for the 2026 NFL Draft. If history is our guide, DraftKings should start posting markets this weekend. Let the Arch Manning hype begin.
