Welcome to Week 4, where wheat and chaff start to separate.
Worth noting: I have no idea what “chaff” is. Stand by.
OK. Now I know. It’s the “inedible outer husk of the wheat grain.”
So with that in mind, here’s my Wheat/Chaff Report as we near the quarter-pole of the NFL season …
WHEAT: The Indianapolis Colts. I think they’re really good. I don’t think this is a mirage. We’ll know a lot more after their game against the Rams — also wheat — this Sunday, but so far … yowza. Worth noting: Daniel Jones is still +8000 at DraftKings for MVP. Stranger things …
CHAFF: The Bengals. Joe Burrow done for (most of) the year, Jake Browning looked lost, Chase Brown can’t find daylight, defense is blech. Trouble city.
WHEAT: The Bears offense. Yes, yes, I know it was only one game against the Cowboys, who appear to play only six or seven players on defense, but no one doubts Caleb Williams’ talent and Ben Johnson’s play-calling and those weapons are pretty good and … well, I’m going with it. I think they’ve turned the corner.
CHAFF: The Kansas City Chiefs. They’re not making the playoffs. Book it.
WHEAT: The Detroit Lions. They’re making the Super Bowl.
CHAFF: Tua Tagovailoa and C.J. Stroud: Maybe in 10 years, when they’ve reached the Carson Wentz portion of their careers, they’ll figure it out, but until then … nope.
WHEAT: Carson Wentz? He got the job done last week. If the Vikings start winning, how can they go back to J.J. McCarthy?
CHAFF: The Cowboys. Good gracious is this team toast.
On to the picks!
The +1000 or more parlay of the week
Failed last week, down to 0-3. It’s fine, though. That’s the nature of longshot parlays. Just gotta win one or two for the year, and we’re gold.
This week, I’m going for the gold. This one is at +2055 at FanDuel. It’s a five-legger. Godspeed.
It’s the Titans +7.5 points in Houston, the Colts +3.5 in Los Angeles against the Rams, the Ravens giving the Chiefs 2.5 points in Kansas City, the Bears getting 1.5 points in Las Vegas, and the Packers giving 6.5 points to the Cowboys on Sunday night.
Rationale? Well, look at my wheat and chaff. That’s pretty much what it comes down to. I don’t think the Texans should 7.5-point favorites against anyone, I think the Colts are simply the better team, ditto the Ravens and Bears, and come on — the Packers should light up the scoreboard and how is Dallas going to keep up?
This one hits, we’re profitable for the year no matter what.
Obvious three-team teaser that won’t hit
The #&@($(^# Packers did me in last week, dropping me to 2-1 on the year.
This week, at +140 at FanDuel, give me the Bucs +9.5 against the Eagles, the Titans getting 13.5 against the Texans, and the Packers giving a half-point to the Cowboys.
As to the “why,” it’s because the Eagles and Bucs will be a slow-paced, close game, the Texans can barely score 14 points, never mind beat a team by that many, and no CeeDee for Dallas means no beating the Packers. No chance.
Prediction market play of the week
Over at Polymarket, I’m smashing the “no” on whether Taylor Swift will be pregnant this year.
The “no” is at 87 cents.
Come on. She has a new album coming out, and really, you think there’s any chance she gets pregnant before she and Travis Kelce officially tie the knot?
To butcher the immortal words of ETR’s Adam Levitan, this is a four-condom play in every conceivable aspect.
It’s a trap!
Correctly ID’d the Falcons giving six points on the road to the Panthers — I mean, I really correctly ID’d that, as the Panthers shut out Atlanta 30-0 — moving my record here to 2-1.
This week, my trap is sticking out like the sorest of thumbs: The Patriots giving 5.5 points at home to those same Panthers. Again: I don’t think the Panthers are particularly good, but they feel pesky enough to continue to cause issues. And the Patriots offense sputtered out against a cruddy Steelers defense last week. I don’t know much, but I do know that 5.5 points feels like 3 points too many.
Did I win the DraftKings Milly Maker?
Is Taylor Swift pregnant?
DraftKings DFS plays of the week
Going to claim victory here, as I advocated using Wentz and Jordan Mason together as a block for $9,400, and together they scored 41.92 points, or 4.45 points per dollar. If your whole team scored 4.45 points per dollar, you would’ve finished in fourth place in the Milly Maker, so yeah, I’m claiming victory.
This week, I’m running back the same idea: Jaxson Dart and Cam Skattebo, combined salary $10,000. While I don’t think the Giants are going to be all that successful against the Chargers, well … they might be. And if they are, these two are going to be putting up points.
Mortal-lock, can’t lose, 900 number, send your money now play of the week
Up to 2-1 as the Jaguars took care of business against the Texans. This week, I’m backing my new favorite team as 3.5-point underdogs, the Indianapolis Colts. They’ll cover against the Rams. Wheat beats wheat.
