Another joins the fray.
ForecastEx self-certified with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) to offer sports event contracts two weeks ago and on Monday filed documents stating its apparent intention to include the type of proposition bets being offered by the Kalshi prediction market.
Chicago-based ForecastEx, a Designated Contract Market and Derivative Clearing Organization owned by Interactive Brokers, has not yet launched sports markets. Companies may post markets the next business day after self-certification unless ordered to stand down by the CFTC.
ForecastEx on Wednesday offered “Yes/No” contracts in the categories of Economic Indicators, Elections, Environment, Financial Markets, Government, and Technology.
The most popular market on Wednesday — “Will Zohran Mamdani win the New York City general election for mayor in 2025?” — had slightly more than $3 million in volume.
What’s In ForecastEx Filing?
The company’s filing was vague, informing the CFTC only that it was “self-certifying the Definitive Statistical Success Forecast Contract” and that “ForecastEx will list a Forecast Contract corresponding to Event Outcomes.”
Language in the self-certification document — specifically with references to a “series of events” and “participant split outcome” — almost certainly indicates prop bets and possibly parlays. Kalshi’s self-certification of parlays was more concrete, referencing multiple components in contracts.
According to the ForecastEx filing, the minimum cost on any position will be one cent, with a position accountability level of 250,000.
ptc09302531404-1ForecastEx self-certified for sports event contracts — described as “Success Forecast” contracts — on Sept. 16.
In that document, ForecastEx described the “underlying,” or the market on which a contract would be based, as the “officially recognized result of an event, such as the final score of an individual event or the champion of a tournament.”
InGame has requested clarification of its intentions from ForecastEx.
ForecastEx vs. competitors
According to prediction market watcher Adhi Rajaprabhakaran, ForecastEx had the sixth-highest volume last week among its prediction market/exchange peers. Its $95,000 tally far trailed leader Kalshi ($110 million).
Polymarket was the only other exchange on the list that has yet to offer sports contracts in the United States. Its CEO, Shayne Coplan, declared in September that the company had cleared regulatory hurdles to relaunch in the United States, but has yet to do so.
ForecastEx touts no-fee speculating but, in his newsletter, Rajaprabhakaran detailed how hidden costs in its fee structure could be “ruinous” to its profitability.
Forces gathering, watching Kalshi, courts
ForecastEx is the latest company to position itself to spring in case Kalshi’s protracted legal campaign to continue offering national sports betting under CFTC oversight is ruled legal despite challanges in numerous states, including Maryland, Massachusetts, Nevada, and New Jersey.
Last week, PrizePicks claimed it became the “first company affiliated with a fantasy sports operator to be registered as a Futures Commission Merchant by the National Futures Association,” allowing it to launch PrizePicks Predict in the future.
FanDuel partnered with CFTC-registered derivatives marketplace CME to eventually do the same. Meanwhile, DraftKings was reportedly mulling a purchase of Railbird. Polymarket bought CFTC-certified QCEX.
The potential impact of a Kalshi vindication on the state-level businesses of licensed sportsbooks is already being felt. A modest Kalshi entry in the same-game parlay marketplace Tuesday sent the stock of national sports betting market-share leaders DraftKings and FanDuel down in value.
