To misquote Yoda, “Begun the attrition war has.”
Tyreek Hill, Malik Nabers, Joe Burrow — all out for the year.
The Cardinals were rolling with James Connor, who’s out of the year. So they went to Trey Benson, who’s now on IR.
Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, CeeDee Lamb — all dealing with injuries this season.
Remember a week ago when the Chargers were the trendy Super Bowl pick? Yeah, not so much anymore without ace offensive lineman Joe Alt.
Shall I go on? Bucky Irving. J.J. McCarthy. Nick Bosa. George Kittle. Aaron Jones. Mike Evans. Jayden Reed.
This is exhausting, but you get the picture. When large men crash into each other on a routine basis, those same large men run the risk of injury. And while every year feels like the worst year to date when it comes to injuries to big-name players, this year really feels like the worst year to date when it comes to injuries to big-name players.
Basically, by the end of the season, it’s not necessarily the best team that hoists the Lombardi trophy; it’s the most ambulatory team. (“Ambulatory” sounds like it should mean “in an ambulance” or something, but it pretty much means the opposite. What a language.)
On to the picks!
The +1000 or more parlay of the week
Dropped to 0-4 last week, as I went with a five-teamer that [checks notes] lost every single leg. It was, to be clear, the least ambulatory parlay of my life.
Need to bring this thing back in the barn, stick to the basics, and get this growing monkey off my back.
As such, we’re headed to FanDuel, where I’ll take the over 47.5 in the Jets-Cowboys game in Jersey, give me the Seahawks giving a field goal at home to the Bucs, I’ll grab the Lions laying 10.5 points to the Bengals in Cincy, and take the Texans giving 1.5 points to the Ravens in Baltimore. This clocks in at +1200.
Here’s the rationale: The Cowboys defense can’t stop anyone, and no one can seem to stop the Cowboys offense, so sure, why not? Seattle at home giving just the field goal feels just right; not sure a Tampa team without Mike Evans and Bucky Irving is going to be able to hang on the road. The Lions? They aren’t taking their foot off the gas, and the Bengals are clearly broken at every level. And while the Texans don’t inspire confidence, neither does possibly Cooper Rush going up against Houston’s fearsome front four. A non-ambulatory Lamar Jackson is not what the 1-3 Ravens need right now.
Obvious three-team teaser that won’t hit
Welp, down to 2-2 in this market after a scorching 2-0 start. Apparently, I am on the schneid.
And so let’s get off the schnied, going to Caesars at +140 with the Eagles getting 2.5 points at home against the Broncos, the Cardinals giving 1.5 points at home against the Titans, and the Bills giving 2 points at home against the Patriots. And yes, I know I should never “go through the zero” as I did in the Eagles pick, but I don’t care. I’m breaking all the rules. I am ambulatory, hear me roar.
Prediction market play of the week
How about Jayden Daniels to win the MVP for 0.02 cents over there on Kalshi? He’s back this week, was a favorite heading into the season and, if the Commanders beat the Chargers on Sunday, the next two weeks are very winnable, very offensively inclined games against the Bears and Cowboys.
Do I think Daniels will win MVP? Probably not, but three consecutive dynamite performances after everyone forgot him when he wasn’t — wait for it — ambulatory, and you have a recipe to watch this tick up into 10-cent territory.
It’s a trap!
Down to 2-2 here, thought the Panthers would keep it close with the Patriots, I was wrong. Onward, upward, and this week’s trap is staring me in the face: the Chiefs giving 3 points on the road Monday night against the Jaguars. The Chiefs looked like the Chiefs last week against the Ravens, but I’m not 100% sure I’m buying it.
Add in a Jaguars team that may be ready to pop off at any moment, and this game becomes a big stay-away for me.
Did I win the DraftKings Milly Maker?
My lineups were not ambulatory.
DraftKings DFS plays of the week
Another block recommendation, and another victory. The Jaxson Dart-Cam Skattebo combo cost $10K and scored 32.84 points. Not breaking the bank, but not torpedoing your linueps either. OK, fine. Not a victory. A push. I’m taking a push on this.
This week is a tricky-tricky one on DraftKings, as there is plenty of seemingly good value to go around and it’s a slate missing Christian McCaffrey, Puka Nacua, and Josh Allen, not to mention all the non-ambulatories out there.
As such, I think I’m going old-school and “jamming in” some running backs who do it all, foregoing some of the less expensive options. How many lineups will have Jonathan Taylor, Jahmyr Gibbs, and De’Von Achane to start? Precious few, I imagine.
Mortal-lock, can’t lose, 900 number, send your money now play of the week
Dropped to 2-2 as the Colts didn’t cover. They should’ve covered six ways from Sunday, but they didn’t. Such is life.
Give me the Lions giving the 10.5 points. On the road. Yikes.
