Here’s my first prediction: When I peek back at this column next week, I’m going to be angry.
Why? Because as I sit down to type this on Thursday morning, I have done zero research into this week’s slate of games. Nothing. Nada. Zippo. Not one blurb, not one tweet, not one podcast, not one article, not one dive, deep or otherwise.
So I’m writing this under deadline, having no clue what’s going on. Obviously, I’m going to research as I go, but my normal NFL week — and by “normal,” I mean gathering information, by both osmosis and active perusal from Sunday night onward — has been hijacked.
I’ve been doing my NFL research for about 40 freaking years, every week, without fail. This is, to my memory, the first time I have not done it.
And why haven’t I done any research? Because I had to go to Las Vegas for work.
Now yes, I realize “had to go” and “Las Vegas” don’t really belong in the same sentence, but it’s true. It was work — the Global Gaming Expo, or G2E — where, to the best of my ability to suss these things out, 25,000 people gather to look at everyone’s name tags, and, if that name is worth talking to, stop to shake a hand.
Anyway, I was there to record podcasts and I left Monday morning, got back home at 1 a.m. Thursday morning, and since I was busy looking at name tags, shaking hands, and talking myself hoarse, I spent the sum total of zero minutes looking ahead to this week’s games.
So, let’s go back to the first sentence of this column, where I said I was going to be angry when I look back at this. And the reason is because … what if I nail everything? What if all my calls below come true? What if all the hours, days, weeks, probably years of my life spent digging into the research is just a fugazy? A fugazi? A whazzie? A whoosie? Fairy dust?
What if the secret to winning in the NFL markets is just simple vibes?
I guess we’re about to find out.
On to the picks!
The +1000 or more parlay of the week
Dropped to 0-5 last week, but we came close, so that’s a positive. Had the over in the Cowboys-Jets game, had the Lions giving 10.5 points to the Bengals, and had the Texans giving 1.5 points to the Ravens. But … the Seahawks killed me. I hate you, Seahawks. Love the uniforms, obvs, but you should have won that game.
At any rate, here we are, and this week at FanDuel I’m taking at +1149 the Patriots giving 3.5 points to the Saints in New Orleans, the Ravens getting 7.5 points at home against the Rams, the Cowboys giving 3 points on the road to the Panthers, and the Lions getting 2.5 points on the road in Kansas City.
Here’s the rationale, and remember, this is more vibes-based than normal: The Patriots may just be rounding into form, and if that’s the case, the Saints can’t compete. The Rams will win this game coming across the country for a 1 p.m. start, but despite not having Lamar Jackson (at least as of this writing), I think the Ravens will manage to cover. As for the Cowboys? Carolina is a joke team. Dallas should be able to have its way. As for the Lions in the featured game of the week? It’s more about my not-love of the Chiefs. I think this team is Patrick Mahomes and duct tape. It could fall apart at any moment.
Obvious three-team teaser that won’t hit
Welp, down to 2-3 in this market after a hot 2-0 start. Not only did I lose, I lost every leg last week. #DoNotTakeMyBettingAdvice
This week at Caesars and at +140, I’ll take the Colts giving a point to the Cardinals at home, I’ll take those Lions getting 8.5 points on the road in K.C., and let’s take the garbage time Jets getting 13.5 points against the Broncos in London.
Prediction market play of the week
Mike Vrabel for Coach of the Year, currently at 15 cents at Kalshi. He’s behind Liam Coen of the Jaguars at 18 cents, and well behind the current favorite, at 31 cents, Shane Steichen.
This play is simple: The Patriots schedule is stupid the rest of the way. At Titans, home against the Browns, home against Atlanta, at Bucs, home against the Jets, at Cincy, home against the Giants, home against the Bills, in Baltimore, at the Jets, and home against Miami.
All told, these teams have a .305(!) winning percentage, the lowest in the leagure. The Denver Broncos’ remaining games feature teams with a .407 winning percentage — they’re second lowest.
Point being, not only might the Patriots make the playoffs, they may even topple the Bills and win the division.
Vrabel would be a shoo-in at that point.
It’s a trap!
Up to 3-2 here, as I had the Jaguars primed to beat the favored Chiefs, and they did. So I’m smart.
This week, I hate — hate, hate, hate, hate — the Steelers giving 5.5 points at home to the Browns. Not that I think the Browns are anything particularly scary, but the Steelers are most certainly not. I almost — almost — like the Browns outright.
Did I win the DraftKings Milly Maker?
If I did, you think I’d be complaining about not doing any research yet this week? Hmmmmm?
DraftKings DFS plays of the week
I swear I’m looking at the salaries for the first time right now — and believe me, usually at this point of the week, I’m more sure of the salaries than I am my children’s birthdays — but at first glance, Quinshon Judkins is still mispriced at $5.9K. Carries by week: 10, 18, 21, 23 — and those last two were in losses. Add in 11 targets over that timeframe and a pair of rushing touchdowns, and you have a running back that should be over $7K.
Mortal-lock, can’t lose, 900 number, send your money now play of the week
Got up to 3-2 as I had the Lions giving 10.5 on the road in Cincy, and I’m going back to the well, taking the Lions getting 2.5 points in Kansas City. I also think they win outright, and in a big way.
