It’s so weird how memory works.
I remember Thanksgiving, 1980. I was 9 years old. I was sick. Maybe a flu, maybe a cold, no idea. But I do remember being in my room while the rest of my extended family was enjoying the holiday.
I was watching the Bears-Lions game. It had gone to overtime. I remember nothing from the game, except the very end. I won’t spoil it. Just watch it.
OK, a spoiler: kickoff return for a touchdown, game over. I remember it so clearly. No idea why. But I do. I wasn’t a Bears fan, wasn’t a Lions fan. All I know is I remember it like it was yesterday.
I’m going to ask ChatGPT why I would remember something so ridiculous.
“You remember it because you were sick, isolated, and emotionally heightened, which makes the brain encode sensory events more strongly. Combine that with an unexpected, dramatic play — a perfect ‘surprise plus stress’ cocktail — and the memory locks in with disproportionate clarity.”
Well, good enough for me.
Now here’s a question: Will I remember anything from Thursday’s slate of Thanksgiving games? I’m guessing the answer is no, as I’m hard pressed to tell you anything that happened five minutes ago. Why? Because I’m old. Didn’t need ChatGPT to tell me that.
But I do like this slate, as all three games have massive playoff implications. No duds in the bunch. Just for kicks, I’m going to predict the final scores in each game. If I’m right, I’ll crow about it next week. If I’m wrong, you won’t remember it, because that’s how memory works.
OK: Lions over Packers 31-17, Cowboys over Chiefs 31-28, and Bengals over Ravens 35-31. Two upsets. I’m feeling crazy.
On to Week 13!
The +1000 or more parlay of the week
Missed it by that much. A week after nailing a +2400-and-change parlay, I was three-for-three heading into Monday night. Had the Bears giving 2.5 points to the Steelers, the under 47.5 in the Dallas-Philly game, and the Browns outright over the Raiders. All I needed was the Panthers to cover the touchdown spread against San Fran and … nope.
Close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades, so back to the ol’ drawing board.
This week, at FanDuel and at +1211, I’m taking the over 44.5 in the Cards-Bucs game, the Browns outright at home over the Niners at +190, the Dolphins giving 5.5 points to the Saints at home, and the Broncos at -340 outright over the Commanders in D.C.
Rationale: The Broncos will win, and I needed something to get this over +1000. The Cards can’t stop anyone and can put up points while the Bucs will be getting Bucky Irving back and that’s enough to get this game over. The Dolphins might be sneaky, having won three out of four, and the Saints are obviously bad. And lastly … the Browns. Their defense is just remarkable, Shedeur Sanders didn’t look horrible, and I don’t trust Brock Purdy in this situation.
Obvious three-team teaser that won’t hit
Up to 6-6, had the Browns getting 9.5 points at Las Vegas, the Cards getting 8.5 points against Jacksonville, and the Packers giving a half-point to the Vikings.
This week, at Caesars and at +140, give me the Browns again, getting 11.5 points, along with the Broncos giving a half-point and the Dolphins getting a half-point against the Saints. Are these the same picks as the parlay? Yes. But that’s what I like, so that’s that.
It’s a trap!
Up to 6-6, correctly ID’ing the Raiders as terrible favorites against the Browns. Guess what I’m doing this week? Yep, the 49ers should not be 5.5-point favorites in Cleveland. The defense is simply too freaking good.
Did I win the DraftKings Milly Maker?
I had Jahmyr Gibbs everywhere. I had a -50% ROI. I hate DFS. (I don’t, but come on. Seriously. Second week in a row I nailed the chalk and couldn’t get anything else right. I’m sad.)
DraftKings DFS play of the week
Cheap quarterbacks have been the way to go recently, and this week is no exception. I’m going crazy here and rolling with Cam Ward at home against the Jags. He’s been looking pretty good lately, and at $4.6K against a Jags team that is second-worst against QBs, according to Establish the Run’s defense versus position calculator. That’s my play.
Mortal-lock, can’t lose, 900 number, send your money now play of the week
Up to 5-7, had the Browns. This week I’m rolling with the Dolphins laying 5.5 points. By the way, the 4-7 Dolphins finish up at home against the Saints, then at the Jets, at Pittsburgh, home against Cincy, home against the Bucs, at New England. Don’t be shocked if they finish 9-8 and sneak into the playoffs. Bold call!
